Woodbine: Play the all-graded-stakes Pick 5 on Saturday

Saturday’s Woodbine card features an all-graded-stakes late pick 5. The sequence includes races on both the outer E.P. Taylor turf course and the main track with an average field size of 8.4 horses. The Pick 5, though it has over 21,000 combinations, probably won’t pay as well as the June 1st late Pick 5 that hit for over $38,000. But, there are a couple of prices to pay attention to if you want to get paid. There is some potential for rain, so check before you enter your picks and be certain to purchase the HRN Sire Moves Report to see if a surface switch helps or hinders your picks.

Rain or shine, Woodbine offers an excellent on-track experience, and Woodbine gives gamblers an experience they won’t soon forget. Considering it’s less than a two hour flight from New York, Boston, Chicago and Philadelphia, a trip north should be on any horseplayer’s calendar. Now let’s get to the handicapping!

The 1 1/16-mile Selene Stakes (G3) seems fairly straightforward. Witwatersrand was impressive as can be on May 18th, Patrick Husbands stays and we can expect a similar ride from him given how easily he went by last out. You have to include Witwatersrand with the way he came home down the stretch but the hidden opportunity in the field is Golden Ghost. The race on January 12 shows he is clearly a runner on synthetic. If we get a more honest pace than Golden Ghost had last out at Aqueduct, and he breaks better to find a more comfortable spot, we could actually see the run he was never able to make in the stretch. At 10-1 on the morning line, getting the jump on Witwatersrand could open this pick 5 right up from the start.

The six-furlong Highlander (G2) runs through Filo Di Arianna. He gets back to Kazushi Kimura, back on Lasix and has the long runway of the E.P. Taylor turf course to get the job done. Filo is a single to lean on. Saffie Joseph sends up Saratoga Flash and while Flash looks interesting, it’s good to remember that Joseph has a really hard time winning at Woodbine. Since 2020 Joseph has 54 starts with an 11 percent win rate and when we look at graded stakes he has won only once for 26 tries.

The eighth race brings us back to the synthetic for the mile and an eighth Dominion Day Stakes (G3), which features a rematch of the Eclipse (G2) on June 1. Everyone adds an eighth of a mile here, with the exception of Mike Maker’s entry Quadra Island. Get Smokin set a strong pace on June 1st giving Palazzi the pace he needed to upset the race with a wide long run outside. We think this race will be run a little differently. As long as Paramount Prince gets the lead and can control the race. If that happens, Paramount Prince can go all the way. Tyson, off the rail this time, also has an opportunity to get running and be better than Palazzi.

The penultimate race is the 1 1/16-mile Marine (G3) on the main track. Another strong single shows up on the rail from Brendan Walsh. Cameo Performance attracts Rafael Hernandez in a small field with really only one other challenger directly to his outside. Piper’s Factor comes from a last out effort where he was easily best over a weaker field. HRN Sire Moves tells us that Cameo Performance will enjoy the move back to synthetic going from a 15 percent sire win rate on turf routes to 21 percent going long on the Tapeta. Conversely, while Native Land has been running well on the dirt, we see a big negative sire move from Mastery at only an eight percent win rate in synthetic routes.

The finale, the Nassau (G2), goes a mile on the outer E.P. Taylor turf course. The race will surely get the fans to the rail with a large and competitive field. We are going to use the outside runners, Full Count Felicia, Fev Rover and Fast as Flight. All three are good enough to win here and it will come down to who gets the trip when the running starts. One thing to note, if the race does come off, Fev Rover has a dam and a sire that do not have any experience on the synthetic.