Woodbine fair odds: Mandatory payout can mean big score

If all 13 entrants start in the finale on Sunday at Woodbine, then there are 154,440 possible super high five combinations. Whittling that down to the winning one will not be easy, but I am confident that the risk is worth the reward given the more than quarter-million dollars in added money because of the carryover with mandatory payout.

I am especially excited because the top two choices on the morning line, On Thin Ice and Cool Kiss, are marooned in outside post positions. Those draws have not done well in full fields going 1 1/16 miles on Woodbine’s Tapeta surface.

Either can win, of course, but removing them from the top spot in my wagers given what underlays they project to me versus my fair odds is a prudent move that-if right-is certain to produce an overlaid payout.

On opposite end of the thought process, Luckman, Jump for the Win and Malibu Edge are all horses I have no interest in. You will often hear people say any horse can be fifth. That is certainly a true statement; any horse can win too. We’re looking to bet overlays, and betting on any on of those three horses to beat the other eight just does not seem wise to me. 

That leaves us with eight other horses for the key spots to mix and match with ten others. I do not see On Thin Ice or Cool Kiss as total throwouts if we can hook them up with a good price on top.

I am most interested in Tiz Romantic, who is 20-1 on the morning line but just 10-1 on my fair odds. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is still looking for his first win this year at Woodbine, but he is a conditioner who spots his horses well and certainly has no issue winning on synthetic surfaces. He attracts jockey Kevin Nicholls to the saddle. I like that he has speed to get position from an outside post with the only real other speed in here, Figher in the Win, just to his inside.

Even if not a winner, Tiz Romantic is a solid key for me in all spots.

South Bend is a wildcard, having just returned from a more than year off in the barn of Mark Casse after going 5-for-31 and earning more than $700,000 for Racing Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. The synthetic and local debut was solid, and now he gets to stretch out. Pace is a concern for this closer to get to the top spot, but it is tough to see how he is not in the top five.

Outside posts are not great, but I think the prices on Tiz Romantic and South Bend compensate us versus the projected short prices on On Thin Ice and Cool Kiss. My strategy is to play for Tiz Romantic and South Bend to both be in the top five.