White Sox vs Blue Jays Predictions, Picks, Odds — 5-28

It’s getting more and more difficult to put a positive spin on this Toronto Blue Jays season and even yesterday’s series-opening win against the Chicago White Sox wasn’t that impressive. 

The Blue Jays will head into tonight’s Game 2 as big favorites in the MLB odds as they hand the ball to Kevin Gausman. My Blue Jays vs. White Sox predictions avoid taking a side on the moneyline, and instead lean on Gausman, whose strikeout numbers have been on the rise.

That and more in my MLB picks for Tuesday, May 28.

Blue Jays vs White Sox prediction

My best bet
Kevin Gausman Over 6.5 strikeouts (+110 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

The Toronto Blue Jays are big favorites against the Chicago White Sox today but it’s hard to have confidence laying so much juice with them, particularly when you consider Kevin Gausman hasn’t looked like himself for most of the season.

The right-hander missed most of Spring Training due to some right-shoulder fatigue and it looks like the team rushed its ace back too soon.

Gausman hasn’t missed a start but the results have been drastically different from his first two seasons in Toronto. His 4.47 ERA and 1.43 WHIP are the highest since his short stint in Atlanta back in 2019. His strikeout rate is down about five percent at 25.1%. That’s good, but not the 30% it’s been the previous four seasons. 

The thing that has stood out the most has been the dip in velocity of his four-seam fastball. It’s down over one mile per hour from last season and with Gausman generally using just two pitches, his splitter being the other, it’s been a problem. 

Gausman is most effective when he can elevate his fastball while mixing the splitter in the lower half. It can be a devastating combo when it’s working. The problem is the dip in velo and the fact he’s found too much of the plate with the four-seamer, which means he’s been getting hit hard.

That said, there have been some reasons for optimism lately. He’s pitching to a 2.77 ERA over his last seven starts, six of which have been solid. More importantly, the strikeouts have begun to return. Gausman has punched out 30 batters in 20 1/3 innings over his last four starts (35.4%).

Today, he faces a White Sox team that struggles with right-handers, ranking dead last in OPS and wRC+. They are also an average strikeout team with a K-rate of 23.3% vs. righties and we just saw Chris Bassitt strike out seven in just five innings on Monday.

Gausman’s strikeout prop is sitting at 6.5. He’s gone Over this number in two of his last four starts and our Covers Prop Projections have him at 6.4 Ks which means there’s some value in the Over at this price. 

Blue Jays star player prop

My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+145 at PROLINE+)

Not much is going right for the Blue Jays right now, to the point where it’s being openly talked about whether the team should trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. 

Straight up, that’s a terrible idea. Both are young position players with plenty of potential. All the big rebuilds around baseball have been around developing position players and then acquiring starting pitching through free agency and trades. 

Plus, it is very unlikely Jays fans would be happy with the return, particularly now that Vladdy appears to have found his rhythm at the dish again. 

Guerrero has been close to a .400 hitter for the better part of a month, hitting .390 with a .985 OPS over his last 26 games. That includes nine extra-base hits and 15 RBI.

I can give Jays’ manager John Schneider a little credit, he is starting to play with the lineup according to who is hitting well and that has given Vladdy more opportunities to drive in runs. He’s recorded an RBI in five of his last 10 games. Our Covers Prop Projections have him at 0.7 RBI.

Blue Jays vs White Sox odds

Blue Jays vs White Sox live odds

Blue Jays vs White Sox opening odds

• Run line: Toronto -1.5 +100 | Chicago +1.5 -120
• Moneyline: Toronto -200 | Chicago +165
• Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5

Blue Jays vs White Sox spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Blue Jays opened as -200 favorites but that hasn’t scared off early bettors with the line now sitting around -220.
• The Blue Jays have now won three of four meetings with the White Sox this season. They were -190 favorites or greater in all three wins.
• The total hit the board at 8.5 and bettors were quick to hammer the Under with the number now a whole run lower at 7.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.
• The Blue Jays have been one of the better Under teams in baseball this season (22-31 O/U) thanks to some solid starting pitching and an underperforming offense, and this game is set up for a similar result.

Blue Jays vs White Sox trend

The Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games for +7.20 Units and a 16% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Blue Jays vs. White Sox

Blue Jays vs White Sox game info

Blue Jays vs White Sox latest injuries

Blue Jays vs White Sox weather

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