Which UFAs the Leafs may target to fill out their 2024-25 lineup – Sportsnet.ca

The hardest part about an exercise like this is we don’t know if the Leafs will have done the thing they’re rumoured to be maybe possibly perhaps thinking about: trading one of Mitch Marner or John Tavares. Obviously, for those things to even be possible, other things have to fall into place, like those players agreeing to waive no-movement clauses. And so, we can’t predict how much cap space they’ll have to work with.

So for today we’re not going to get too into the weeds about the salary cap, and what is exactly a realistic salary structure. But what we will do is look at the available UFAs, and talk about the best potential fits for Toronto’s needs.

Every listmaker has their priorities, so I’ll lay mine bare for the Leafs: Guys who can make plays and create offence, but are competitive as hell. I can’t watch recent Stanley Cup champs Nathan MacKinnon and Mark Stone, or see how Matthew Tkachuk and Sam Bennett have gone through the past two playoffs, and not have those attributes at the top of my list.

Without further ado, here are a few realistic potential forward and defence adds for the Leafs to look at in free agency. We’ll get to the goalie situation another day.

Potential UFA forwards who make sense for the Leafs

Jonathan Marchessault
Age: 33 | 2023-24: 82GP-42G-27A | TOI/GP: 17:54

Term would matter for a 33-year-old, of course, but this guy is a capital-G Gamer. He won a Conn Smythe Trophy in 2023, and he just scored 42 goals. The Leafs can’t score in the playoffs. It’s not so much should the Leafs sign him, it starts with “is he available” (he seems to want to stay in Vegas) and if he is, you have to start considering how to make a forward salary north of $6 million per season (and closer to seven?) work.

Chandler Stephenson
Age: 30 | 2023-24: 75GP-16G-35A | TOI/GP: 18:29

Another Gamer, though with less offence. But he did have 51 points this past season, to go with being a competitive centre who skates well and kills penalties and plays on the power play. He’s a trustworthy piece who lets skill around him thrive.

Obviously there’s…

Jake Guentzel
Age: 29 | 2023-24: 67GP-30G-47A (with Carolina/Pittsburgh) | TOI/GP: 17:30 (with Carolina)

This one hinges on the Leafs moving one of the big salaries they currently carry, but his playoff track record is unbelievable. He’s one of the few players who produces at a higher rate in the post-season (0.97) than the regular season (0.94), which is pretty insane.

Now for less offence, but more pure competitiveness…

Jordan Martinook
Age: 31 | 2023-24: 82GP-14G-18A | TOI/GP: 14:39

As you’ll see by the end of this, I like a lot of Hurricanes. But Martinook is a true “adult in the room,” in that he seems to know exactly where to be on the rink, and exactly how to help the team find its energy on it.

For a value play, I like…

Viktor Arvidsson
Age: 31 | 2023-24: 18GP-6G-9A | TOI/GP: 16:42

He’s had multiple surgeries and has always struggled to stay healthy. In that vein, it would remind me of the Ondrej Kase signing – could you get him cheap so he can prove to people he’s able to stay healthy and play? It feels low risk; if he is hurt, you’re talking LTIR, if he can play enough, he’s cheap and can score up to 30 goals while consistently driving the crease and being best in the blue paint, an area the Leafs struggle to get to in the playoffs.

And last…

Dakota Joshua
Age: 28 | 2023-24: 63GP-18G-14A | TOI/GP: 14:23

He was a draft pick of the Leafs in 2014, but found his game towards the back half of this season in Vancouver, being a big part of a very good depth line for the Canucks. He’s big and strong and actually has finishing touch, and is at a prime age. I love this guy as a third line Leaf on a two- or three-year deal.

Honorary mentions: Depth banger Yakov Trenin (afraid of nothing and can score you 15), and Ryan Lomberg (a bit of a maniac on the ice, which is fun).

Potential UFA defencemen who make sense for the Leafs

Brandon Montour
Age: 30 | 2023-24: 66GP-8G-25A | TOI/GP: 23:27

The whole concern with Montour isn’t what he can do, it’s that everyone universally accepts what he can do – score big numbers as a D-man, help a power play, hit, compete and get in faces – and that might make him expensive. But he’s a right shot guy, and the Leafs have real needs on that side. Not many players scratch all their itches at once and, as far as this year’s UFAs go, Montour might do the best overall job of that. Given his age and cost though, I admit to having fear about the dollars and term.

Jalen Chatfield
Age: 28 | 2023-24: 72GP-8G-14A | TOI/GP: 15:12

Chatfield is, to me, the best “value” option on the market, in that he’s going to be under TJ Brodie’s annual $5 million hit, but will provide a more competitive version of what Brodie did. He’ll block shots and kill penalties and even occasionally fight if he has to as a right shot, reliable guy. He’s not a No. 1 solution, but he would make Toronto’s D-corps better.

Brett Pesce
Age: 29 | 2023-24: 70GP-3G-10A | TOI/GP: 20:17

It’s purely age and injury potential that has me hesitant here. Well, money too. Another right shot D, and one Leafs fans have been salivating over for a long time. He’s been edged out in Carolina by a very deep group, and is likely to want to get paid. But there’s no way to draw up the Leafs’ defence pairs with him in it for next year and not notice “Huh, this suddenly looks not so bad” when you drop him into the mix. They’ll talk with Pesce for sure, though he is another guy who probably requires them to move on from Tavares and/or Marner.

Brady Skjei
Age: 30 | 2023-24: 80GP-13G-34A | TOI/GP: 21:17

The only left shot on my list, which isn’t so bad considering his upside. He’d make Jake McCabe stay on the right, which isn’t terrible considering the year he just had there. But Skjei could run Toronto’s first power play unit, which would go a long way to helping the team overall, and has the type of playmaking you like from a modern NHL defenceman. He would help.

And finally,

Matt Roy
Age: 29 | 2023-24: 81GP-5G-20A | TOI/GP: 20:54

Physical, kills penalties, and is the type of guy who feels like an anchor. Not in a bad way in how we talk about contracts, but a reliable guy who you can night in and night out expect to be in the right places. It may be an unsexy signing, but as you may have noticed, No. 1 defencemen aren’t often sitting there waiting for UFA deals.

The Leafs have options well beyond these names, but to me, the list above consists of competitors who can actually move the puck and aren’t afraid to play hockey when it gets a little grittier in the post-season.

There’s one month until free agency opens up, and by then we’ll have a lot clearer picture of what the Leafs’ salary cap picture could look like. If in fact one of the big moves does happen, don’t be surprised if two or more of the above names are Leafs next season.