Which Teams Makes Sense For A Jeremy Swayman Offer Sheet?

The deadline for teams to elect for arbitration came and went yesterday afternoon. Notably, the Boston Bruins decided not to elect for salary arbitration with goaltender Jeremy Swayman leaving them vulnerable to a potential offer sheet since Swayman himself did not elect either. The Bruins have $8.6MM in cap space to deal with their lone restricted free agent but several teams could put Boston in trouble.

A hypothetical offer sheet for Swayman would likely come in at the ’Tier Five’ range which would need a salary of $6.87MM-$9.16MM and would require the signing team to send their upcoming first, second, and third-round picks (the picks may not be the original property of another team) to the Bruins if they are unwilling to match. Boston would likely match a max offer for Swayman even if it approaches the $9.16MM range but they would become uncomfortably close to the salary cap ceiling for the upcoming season.

According to CapFriendly, the only teams able to sign Swayman to a deal in that range would be the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, Montreal Canadiens, Nashville Predators, New York Islanders, Philadelphia Flyers, and Seattle Kraken. The Sabres and Red Wings seem unlikely as they will have limited cap space to make moves once they sign the rest of their restricted free agents while the Predators and Islanders already have established goaltenders at the NHL level. Additionally, the Flyers and Kraken don’t hold enough cap space to cause Boston problems.

So why not theorize about reigniting one of the best rivalries in the game?

The Canadiens only have two pending restricted free agents left to sign with just over $10MM in space in Arber Xhekaj and Justin Barron. Neither player projects to cut too much into that cap and wouldn’t necessarily prohibit Montreal from making a move of this magnitude. The Canadiens are not far removed from making a statement via offer sheet as they infamously signed Sebastian Aho to a five-year, $42.27MM offer later matched by the Carolina Hurricanes.

Montreal could open up additional cap space this summer by trading Christian Dvorak and Joel Armia for nothing in return. By trading away both players, the Canadiens could open up nearly $8MM in cap space and could easily give their roster spots to younger players. This is still without factoring in their trump card.

As of right now, former goaltender Carey Price’s $10.5MM salary for the upcoming season has not been officially factored into the Canadiens’ LTIR space. Montreal would not need to put Price’s contract on LTIR space at all this season but if they choose to, their cap space would buoy up to $20.68MM — giving the Canadiens all the room in the world to safely add Swayman’s contract.

The draft picks that would need to go back to Boston would be a manageable cost for the Canadiens. Through several different trades, Montreal holds a conditional first-round pick from the Calgary Flames in 2025, Pittsburgh’s second-round selection in 2025, a conditional third-round pick from New Jersey in 2025, and Vancouver’s third-round pick in 2025. Even if the Canadiens had to part with their first, second, and third-round picks for the 2025 NHL Draft, they would still make four selections in the first three rounds.

The major drawback of signing Swayman to an offer sheet would be the negative consequences to the Canadiens’ current starting netminder, Sam Montembeault. Montembeault did not have an earth-shattering performance last season but still produced a 16-15-9 record in 40 starts with a .903 save percentage and 3.14 GAA. Montreal’s brass committed to Montembeault based on his performance by signing him to a three-year, $9.45MM extension on December 1st, 2023.

Montembeault’s consistency doesn’t come close to Swayman’s performance in Boston; however, as the netminder has produced a 79-33-15 record in 125 starts while collecting an impressive .919 SV% and 2.34 GAA throughout his career. The Canadiens can procure one of the best goaltenders in the game while subsequently punching up at their bitter rivals.