What a quiet free agency signals about the Jets’ roster outlook

Kevin Cheveldayoff’s phone buzzed multiple times during his Monday afternoon news conference at Canada Life Centre.

He was clear about what it meant.

“We’ve got a few things on the go,” Cheveldayoff told reporters. “Obviously, I took some time to come here. My phone’s been buzzing a few times in my pocket since I got here, so there’s going to be moving parts from now until training camp and beyond.”

It was an encouraging message for Jets fans who are probably sizing up the depth chart on July 1 and wondering how a 52-win, 110-point team will get anywhere near that next season. Spend-happy general managers gave out over $1 billion in contracts on Monday, seizing upon the increase in the cap limit to hand out big money to players like Steven Stamkos, Chandler Stephenson, Brady Skjei and Jonathan Marchessault, among many others.

Winnipeg was left behind, despite clearing cap space by buying out popular defenceman Nate Schmidt and watching as Sean Monahan, Brenden Dillon, Tyler Toffoli and Laurent Brossoit signed in other cities. The Jets signed goaltenders Kaapo Kähkönen to a one-year, $1 million AAV contract and Eric Comrie to a two-year, $825,000 AAV deal. They signed veteran right-handed defenceman Colin Miller to a two-year, $1.5 million AAV contract later in the afternoon. Otherwise, the Jets missed out — and that’s a good thing.

The majority of contracts signed on July 1 go to veteran players. Multiple bidders drive up prices, both in terms of cap hit and term, leading to major investments in players who probably won’t live up to the billing for very long — if at all. There aren’t a lot of value contracts signed on July 1, which puts the prices Winnipeg paid for Kähkönen, Comrie and Miller in a positive light.

Value contracts for more impactful UFAs do exist; I liked the five-year, $3.6 million AAV deal Sean Walker signed in Carolina, while Victor Arvidsson will probably outscore his $4 million cap hit in Edmonton. They are just hard to come by — and harder still in Canada, where elevated income tax, more intense media markets and players’ preconceived notions of one great city in particular offer a distinct challenge.

Winnipeg has not had a lot of UFA success, particularly in the more expensive aisles of the market. That’s part of what makes the recent commitment of Dylan DeMelo, plus core pieces like Josh Morrissey, Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele and Adam Lowry so dear. The Jets can’t afford to have albatross contracts weighing down their cap, lest they need to buy out someone new; Schmidt and Blake Wheeler will cost almost $5.5 million combined next season.

So the UFA market is not for Winnipeg. What is? And who’s blowing up Cheveldayoff’s phone in the middle of his news conferences?

These are crucial questions because, whatever points I might make about efficiency, the Jets roster still needs major upgrades to earn points in the standings. This is particularly evident with even a glancing look at the blue line. Here are the key takeaways from the Jets’ activity on Day 1 of free agency, Cheveldayoff’s words and what we’re hearing about other teams’ trading interests in Winnipeg’s players.

Updated 2024-25 depth chart

*restricted free agent

This 23-player roster leaves the Jets with $8.6 million in cap space — $9.4 million if they send Comrie to the Moose, although that’s not guaranteed.

Either way, Winnipeg will use that money to sign Cole Perfetti, David Gustafsson, Logan Stanley and Ville Heinola. Evolving Hockey projects $3 million for Perfetti and another $3 million should cover Gustafsson, Stanley and Heinola. Whether or not those projections hit, it’s clear the Jets are down to $2-3 million in cap space as constructed.

What are they meant to do with that?

The most obvious holes on this roster are the ones on defence. The goaltending is set. The forwards can get by, especially if the plan is to keep Nikolaj Ehlers — the Perfetti-Namestnikov-Ehlers line was good last season (and the Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi line was great, if you’re into a different look).

The defence needs help.

Morrissey and DeMelo can play top competition and beat them. We’ve seen them do it for multiple seasons, Jets playoff woes aside.

Dylan Samberg is a great penalty killer. He was also sixth of six Jets regulars in even strength workload last season. A top-four job may be within his reach but it’s a stretch goal as opposed to a sure thing. Miller has played top-four minutes before, but the Jets didn’t appear to trust him down the stretch. He was frequently scratched, playing in five regular season games, before being kept in the press box until Game 5 of the playoffs.

Neal Pionk has produced points but he’s been chaotic in his own zone. It’s been a long time since he looked like an aggressive, confident, exit-denying, hard-gapping defenceman with good lateral mobility. He did that in back-to-back seasons and needs to do it again in a big way for this roster to have success.

And finally: Stanley, Heinola and Elias Salomonsson combined for 25 NHL games last season — all of them Stanley’s. Two of the three may be able to succeed in a sheltered, third-pairing role — but that would require a much stronger second pair, lest Winnipeg spend more time buried in its own zone next season.

So what are the Jets to do?

‘If I’m a young player in the Jets’ organization, I’m excited’

Cheveldayoff was clear that the Jets aren’t done shopping. It’s clear they bought out Schmidt with a purpose — or else, why not keep the veteran player around?

As it stands, though, there are a few players who have a lot to gain.

Heinola and Salomonsson have a fighting chance at a roster spot, although it seems most likely that Salomonsson will be assigned to the Moose at first. Stanley has another shot at becoming an everyday player. Samberg has a chance at top-four minutes and his roommate has a shot at a career season.

There’s no one blocking Perfetti from top-six minutes, even if the Jets go out and add someone a veteran like Adam Henrique. This means the 19-goal, 38-point scorer has a shot at 50-60 points by virtue of ice time improvements alone. Brad Lambert and Nikita Chibrikov have fighting shots at a roster spot.

“The one thing about free agency is that it doesn’t just stop on free agency day,” Cheveldayoff said. “Once the dust settles, you go through the different teams and you may find some needs for trades or different things of the like in some organizations. We’ll take a look at all of that. But if I’m a young player in the Jets organization today, I’m pretty excited about the opportunities that are in front of me and I’m working pretty hard in the offseason to make sure that I take full advantage.”

If the Jets do sign a veteran forward, the price will need to fit into the $2-3 million range we discussed above. Otherwise, the Jets need another salary-cap safety valve — and I wonder if a couple of teams have kicked the tires on Alex Iafallo.

Cap space is only as valuable as what you do with it

Cap space gives a team the opportunity to do something positive. It doesn’t mean a team will do something positive with it.

I have a pet theory (I have so many pet theories) that a team could get rich by acquiring first-round picks at every trade deadline and trading them at every draft. It seems as though contenders happily throw them at veterans during the season (like Monahan) and treat them like gold on draft day.

I think cap space changes in value depending on when and how teams use it, too.

If the Jets do manage to get to the regular season with a couple million dollars worth of cap space, that space will build up throughout the season. Teams accrue space by staying under the cap, with a little bit building up each day. Looking around at today’s market, it seems clear that several contending teams are going to be cap-strapped by the trade deadline. If the Jets get that far while playing like contenders themselves, they can use the space to acquire expensive veterans.

If not — and I think there’s a real possibility of this — then a team with cap space can extract draft picks from other teams by being a third-party broker. I’m not sure if Winnipeg is willing to play the salary retention game to pick up assets — and I realize this is a hyper-specific example. My point is that cap space has value in and of itself, particularly when the UFA frenzy has dissipated and prices come back down to earth.

McGroarty still in play

The Rutger McGroarty situation is ongoing. As The Athletic reported from Vegas, the Wild and Jets got close on a deal and Winnipeg had other suitors, too. I believe Montreal’s first-round pick was in play, with the Jets interested in Norwegian defenceman Stian Solberg if they were able to consummate that trade.

Other than Minnesota and Montreal, teams with confirmed interest include Los Angeles and San Jose — and the full list is likely much longer than that. NHL playing time remains at the forefront of McGroarty’s wishlist. I imagine it’s tough for a player like McGroarty to watch as friends and peers begin their NHL careers. I would understand if a little bit of “why not me?” crept into the picture, given his own NCAA and world juniors success.

I believe in the prospect enough to project him as an NHL player — if not now, then eventually — and Winnipeg isn’t obligated to care about McGroarty’s long-term outlook; the Jets need to maximize their trade return. Perhaps part of their process is communicating with teams to find out who has a roster spot ready and waiting.

McGroarty won’t be at development camp this week. If reconciliation were in the cards or if McGroarty were looking to prove to Winnipeg that he’s ready for the NHL once and for all, I’d suspect he’d prefer to be on the ice.

As it stands, the Jets are still working to move him.

Monahan, Toffoli, Dillon and Brossoit depart

Winnipeg was willing to give Monahan an AAV above $5 million but ultimately lost out to Columbus in a modest bidding war for his services. This is a swing and a miss that will likely age well — as much as I think Monahan is underrated at the moment, perhaps owing to his injury history, the not-so-fleet-footed centre turns 30 in October and five years at $5.5 million is too much for too long.

Toffoli was always on his way out but, to illustrate a trend: San Jose gave him four years at a $6 million AAV, which will look just fine if he keeps scoring 30 goals per season and less so if the 32-year-old declines with age. He’s scored an awful lot of goals without ever looking like a speedster; Jets fans still won’t look at his playoffs and feel inspired about Toffoli’s likely mid-30s output.

Dillon and Brossoit are bigger losses. Winnipeg came close to matching New Jersey’s three-year, $4 million contract for Dillon — probably the ideal term on the 33-year-old who’s maintained a top-four level despite his age. It wasn’t enough, though — particularly after waiting until the end of the season to start contract discussions in earnest. I think the Devils had appeal for many other reasons but one reason for Dillon’s departure is that he didn’t feel prioritized by the club.

Brossoit’s departure is about Winnipeg’s commitment to playing Hellebuyck like a workhorse No. 1 goaltender. There are arguments to be made for reducing Hellebuyck’s workload and using more of a tandem approach; I suspect Hellebuyck wants to feel like a big priority himself, at $8.5 million, with seven years left on his new deal. Brossoit may give Chicago good value on the two-year, $3.3 million AAV contract he signed but the Jets weren’t going to spend that money on a player who’d earned more starts.

Jets sign Kähkönen, Comrie

If Winnipeg doesn’t want to carry three goalies, Comrie can be waived and sent to the Moose as a high-end AHL veteran.

If Manitoba doesn’t want to carry three goalies, Dom DiVincentiis can be loaned to Winnipeg’s ECHL affiliate, the Norfolk Admirals, just as Thomas Milic was for parts of last season. A lot of NHL goaltenders end up with ECHL games on their resume in this fashion.

(Photo of Kevin Cheveldayoff: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)