What a path through the College Football Playoff for the Big 12 winner — perhaps Utah — looks like in 2024

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One of the popular sentiments in social media, news media and college football circles is that Utah will be one of the favorites to win the Big 12 football title when the Utes play their first season in the league this fall.

With the College Football Playoff expanding from four to 12 teams this year — and the top five conference champions receiving automatic bids to the playoff — it opens up the likelihood as well that the Big 12 winner, and perhaps another team, will earn a chance to play for a national championship.

Last week, the CFP released the schedule for what the 2024 playoff will be. Here’s what it looks like, with the five highest ranked conference champions earning seeds, plus the next seven highest ranked teams filling at-large spots.

2024 College Football Playoff schedule

First round

Note: First-round games will feature playoff teams seeded Nos. 5-12 and will be played at the home stadiums of the higher seeds (Nos. 5-8).

Friday, Dec. 20

• First-round game No. 1: 6 p.m. MST, TV: ABC/ESPN.

Saturday, Dec. 21

• First-round game No. 2: 10 a.m. MST, TV: TNT.
• First-round game No. 3: 2 p.m. MST, TV: TNT.
• First-round game No. 4: 6 p.m. MST, TV: ABC/ESPN.

Quarterfinals

Note: Playoff teams seeded Nos. 1-4 will earn a first-round bye and begin play in the quarterfinals.

Unlike the first-round games that are played at host sites, the CFP quarterfinals and semifinals will rotate each year between these six bowl-game sites: the Cotton Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl.

For the 2024-25 postseason, the Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl will host quarterfinals matchups.

Tuesday, Dec. 31

• Fiesta Bowl: 5:30 p.m. MST, TV: ESPN.

Wednesday, Jan. 1

• Peach Bowl: 11 a.m. MST, TV: ESPN.
• Rose Bowl: 3 p.m. MST, TV: ESPN.
• Sugar Bowl: 6:45 p.m. MST, TV: ESPN.

Semifinals

Note: The Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl will host semifinals matchups for the 2024-25 postseason.

Thursday, Jan. 9

• Orange Bowl: 5:30 p.m. MST, ESPN.

Friday, Jan. 10

• Cotton Bowl: 5:30 p.m. MST, ESPN.

National championship

Note: The 2024-25 national championship game will be hosted by Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Monday, Jan. 20

• CFP national championship: 5:30 p.m. MST, ESPN.

Which Big 12 teams are favorites to reach the College Football Playoff in 2024?

Tides have shifted a bit in the Big 12 this season, with Texas and Oklahoma departing to the SEC and Utah, Colorado, Arizona and Arizona State joining the league.

With blue-blood programs in the Longhorns and Sooners gone, there is an expectation that parity could rule the conference, in particular this first season as a 16-team conference.

That kind of parity is reflected in ESPN’s Football Power Index, which was updated last week.

No Big 12 team is ranked in the top 15 of the FPI, but there are 10 Big 12 teams in the top 36 of the rankings, which are, according to ESPN, “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is.”

Utah is squarely in the middle of the 10 Big 12 teams ranked from No. 17 to No. 36 in the FPI, with the Utes coming in at No. 27. Only Kansas (No. 17), Kansas State (No. 22), Arizona (No. 24) and Oklahoma State (No. 26) are ahead of Utah.

There are five Big 12 teams in the 10 spots behind Utah, including Texas Tech (No. 29), TCU (No. 30), UCF (No. 32), West Virginia (No. 35) and Colorado (No. 36).

ESPN’s FPI gives the Utes an 8.2% chance of winning the Big 12, with a 12.5% chance of making the playoffs. There are six Big 12 teams with 10% odds or better to make a CFP appearance, led by Kansas (24%) and Kansas State (21.4%).

One thing in Utah’s favor is its strength of schedule, which is second-easiest among league teams and No. 72 nationally, according to the FPI, and behind only projected league winner Kansas at No. 77.

In the Utes’ first Big 12 season, they avoid playing Kansas and Kansas State, and while they must play at Oklahoma State in their league opener, Utah does get another conference favorite, Arizona, at home.

Early Big 12 College Football Playoff projections

Here’s what a few national outlets have predicted for this year’s College Football Playoff and which Big 12 teams they predict will make the playoff:

• CBS Sports projected Utah to win the Big 12 during its first season in the league, earning the No. 3 seed and a first-round bye as the lone conference team in the field. The Utes would play the winner of No. 6 Texas and No. 11 Penn State in the Fiesta Bowl in the quarterfinals.
• On3.com projected Kansas State to win the Big 12 and earn a No. 4 seed, with a first-round bye, as the only league representative.
• ESPN polled a panel of six writers in February for their CFP predictions this season — two (Chris Low, Heather Dinich) had Utah as the Big 12 champion and the No. 3 overall seed, another (Harry Lyles Jr.) had the Utes as the No. 4 seed and a fourth (Bill Connelly) put Utah in with an at-large bid as the No. 11 seed and a first-round matchup at No. 6 Ohio State.
• In ESPN’s projections, two Big 12 teams made the CFP field in two projections — Connelly predicted Kansas State as the No. 4 seed ahead of No. 11 Utah, while Andrea Adelson predicted Arizona would be the No. 4 seed as Big 12 champs and Kansas State would be an at-large seed at No. 10. One other league team also appeared in ESPN’s projections — David Hale predicted Kansas as the conference champion and No. 4 seed.
• 247 Sports projected Utah to win the Big 12 and earn a No. 4 seed, with a first-round bye, as the only league representative.

In case you missed it

Utah is busy hosting more than 30 football recruits in June on official visits, and the Utes received their first commit of the month. It came from Las Vegas native Sione Motuapuaka, a 6-foot, 250-pound defensive lineman who plays for national powerhouse Bishop Gorman High and is rated a three-star prospect by 247 Sports.

From the archive

Extra points

• Who has committed to Utah, who is visiting as official visits ramp up? (Deseret News)
• Utah’s newest assistant coach comes from Big 12 country (Deseret News)
• Here’s what close friends Kalani Sitake and Kyle Whittingham said about each other this week (Deseret News)