USC mailbag: Where can fans find positives? What are the team’s expectations?

LOS ANGELES — In terms of the college football calendar, we’re at the calm before the storm. Media days are about a month away, which means we’re getting closer to actual football.

There are still about 2 1/2 months before we get to USC’s kickoff against LSU, so in the meantime, let’s get to your questions about the Trojans.

Note: Submitted questions have been lightly edited for length and clarity.

Are there any positives coming out of USC football these days? It seems bleak. — Tim S.

I’ve outlined the reasons it seems bleak in the past. But if you’re a USC fan looking for positives, here are some, starting on the field: Lincoln Riley is a bright offensive mind, and even though the offense didn’t play up to its potential last season (yes, I’m aware of what the national stats say), the offense should be good and Riley has had an offseason to address the issues with last season’s unit: receivers getting open, offensive line woes, etc.

The potential of the receiver unit and secondary is exciting. USC’s young receivers are promising, and it’ll be fun to watch their development this fall. The Trojans added good players in the secondary, and ones who look the part. In the past, USC’s defensive backs have often been too skinny or slow.

One critical aspect is that the fundamentals should be better on defense. It can’t get worse than the past two seasons in that regard, but the defense easily could make some good strides if it just knows what it’s assigned to do on a play-by-play basis. It didn’t the past two seasons, and that showed on the field.

Miller Moss has thrown for 914 yards and nine touchdowns during his SEC career. (Orlando Ramirez / USA Today)

There are six months between now and the early signing period, but USC’s 2025 recruiting class ranks fifth nationally. It’s a talent acquisition game, and the Trojans have played it well this cycle even though they have several steps to take to ensure it stays that way.

So yes, there are positives, but people just expected more from the program headed into Riley’s third season.

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It’s fair to say fan expectations last year were not met. If you were the athletic director, what would the expectations be for this year? If you were Riley? And for the fans? — Joseph A.

That’s a great question. Honestly, it depends. Because in two of these situations (the athletic director and coach), things you believe might be different from what you might say.

If you’re being realistic as the athletic director or coach, the expectation should be eight or nine wins — considering the roster makeup and schedule — to be competitive or to win some of the toughest games (LSU, Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame) and to seal the deal on the 2025 recruiting class to set up a big year next fall. That’s why the win total, per BetMGM, is set at 7.5. But Jen Cohen and Riley can’t/would never publicly say they’re happy with eight or nine wins.

They have to say something along the lines of, “We expect to compete for conference championships, College Football Playoff spots and national championships every year.” If they didn’t, fans would be upset.

I’m not quite sure what the fans’ expectations should be. When Riley was hired, this likely would’ve been viewed as the season USC seriously would contend for a Playoff spot. But as I’ve written this offseason, I’m not sure how realistic that is given the questions at quarterback and on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

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The offense will look very different with Miller Moss under center. Last year, we saw flashes from Zach Branch, Jakobi Lane and Duce Robinson, but how ready are they to assume a bigger role in the offense, and who else should we expect to step into bigger roles? — Chad S.

In the past, Riley has tailored his offense to fit the skill set of the quarterback. The offense with Jalen Hurts looked different from the one with Baker Mayfield. The offense will look quite different this fall just because there will be no real quarterback-run element, which is unusual for a Riley offense. Before anyone mentions that Mayfield isn’t known as a runner, he rushed for 400 yards in a season at Oklahoma. I’d be stunned if Moss hits that total.

So USC will have to be more timing-based offensively. Moss is more likely to play within the structure of the offense. Williams colored outside the lines a ton, and that led to a lot of highlights, but it also caused some issues last year. And USC will need Moss to play within structure to protect an offensive line that might be one of the weakest points on the roster.

As for the younger receivers, they have to step into greater roles or the season will go poorly. Branch and Robinson received some extended playing time in the last month of the season and don’t have as many veterans taking reps. There’s Lane, and don’t overlook Makai Lemon. I would bet on Branch’s talent, Riley finding creative ways to get him the ball and Branch becoming the No. 1 target.

If the season started today, who would be on your two-deep for the defensive line? — Brad D.

The starting lineup would look like this: Jamil Muhammad and Anthony Lucas at the edges and Bear Alexander and Nate Clifton on the interior.

The second-team unit would be Braylan Shelby and Kameryn Fountain or Sam Greene on the edges with Elijah Hughes and Wyoming transfer Gavin Meyer on the interior.

It’s a group that leads to more questions than answers, so it certainly will be tried and tested by opposing offenses throughout the season.

When USC hired D’Anton Lynn and people praised the remarkable turnaround he led with the UCLA defense, there often was a caveat that Lynn had more talent to work with at UCLA. Was that true? Am I crazy to expect a massive improvement on defense? What are your views on how the defense will perform this season? — Erik W.

Chip Kelly didn’t recruit the high school ranks well at UCLA, but he skillfully mined the transfer portal while with the Bruins. Laiatu Latu, Jay Toia and the Murphy twins (Grayson and Gabriel) were all transfers and the best players along the front for UCLA. I’d take that front over what USC has right now, and I’d take the Bruins’ linebacker group from last year over what the Trojans have right now, too. So I believe Lynn had more to work with last year, and he did well with what he had.

This is a much different challenge. USC will improve defensively, but I’m not expecting a massive improvement. The talent isn’t on hand for the Trojans to jump from 104th in yards per play allowed in 2023 to the top 30 or top 25 this year. If the defense finishes near the top 50 in yards per play allowed, that would be an unquestioned win. But there are too many unknowns outside of Alexander and linebacker Easton-Mascarenas Arnold in that defensive front, and there’s not enough depth, so injuries could easily derail things.

The secondary might be improved this fall, but will that matter much if the front can’t dictate the line of scrimmage against opposing offenses?

After looking at the schedule, I only see the Trojans winning three or four games in their inaugural Big Ten season. What are your thoughts? — Anonymous

You’re underselling the Trojans quite a bit. USC has a better roster than Utah State, Washington and UCLA. I think those are three wins. The Trojans will be decided underdogs in three, maybe four other games (LSU, Michigan, Notre Dame and maybe Penn State). The other five are probably toss-ups, and you’re saying the Trojans would go 0-for-5 across those games. I don’t see it. I mentioned the 7.5 over/under. That’s more in line with where I think this team will settle. In the worst-case scenario, maybe five or six wins.

Is JuJu Lewis locked in? Will 2025 be a real boom recruiting class? — Joshua P.

I reached out to Lewis’ father and asked if the family plans on visiting Auburn this weekend. I didn’t get a response by the time this story was published. If Lewis makes that trip and his scheduled trip to Colorado next week, it’s safe to say he’s not 100 percent locked in even though he’s committed.

The 2025 class has the potential to be the defining class of Riley’s tenure — the key word there being “potential.” USC still has to close the deal on its commitments during the next six months; win some crucial local battles (like blue-chip linebacker Noah Mikhail), which it hasn’t done during the past few cycles; and address some areas it hasn’t recruited at an elite level in past cycles (the offensive line).

If it manages to do that, then yes, call it a boom class.

Can USC’s roster building during the first two years of the Riley era be compared to the “win now” model in pro sports? Is there a lesson to be learned from an NFL-type of star-driven mentality in talent recruitment at the college level? Or do you see folks taking the successful aspects of USC’s model and someday taking a 4-8 team to a national championship? — Hank W.

When I sat down with Riley in November, he said the coaches built that early on because they wanted to get the program competitive and put it in a position to win in its first few years.

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The opportunity to play with Caleb Williams made USC an attractive transfer destination. Look at Jordan Addison joining the program in Riley’s first offseason. In the second offseason, USC landed several linemen on offense and defense. For one, the spotlight that was on Williams last season meant more exposure to NFL personnel for other players. It gave those players a chance to play with a Heisman Trophy winner, and USC was discussed as a potential Playoff team in the preseason. Quarterback is more of an unknown this season, and USC didn’t have the same sort of transfer class; Riley said the coaches aren’t trying to lean on it as much.

USC has to build a more well-rounded, balanced team that doesn’t have to rely on the quarterback as much. Riley always will try to land talented quarterbacks, but he’s in the process of trying to make the roster more balanced. Will he be successful in that? We’ll see.

I’m not sure there’s a lesson to be learned. Stars attract other stars. Look at Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama under Nick Saban. Great players want to play with other great players. It’s difficult to say a team will take successful aspects from USC’s model because Williams was such a driving force behind the early success, and talents like him come along only so often. I’d imagine some coaches and programs will try to replicate it, but the quarterback is key.

(Top photo of Lincoln Riley: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)