US Open Golf 2024: Updated Predictions for Top Prize Money

Pinehurst No. 2 was an unforgiving course for most of the golfers entered into the 2024 US Open on Thursday.

Only 15 players emerged with an under-par round. Patrick Cantlay and Rory McIlroy led that group of players with a pair of five-under scores.

A lot of the focus will be on McIlroy’s quest to improve his five-under score on Friday, but his playing partners could turn in the better round scores. Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele each scrambled well on Thursday and both players could turn that into lower scores.

The field as a whole may struggle, though, because the course conditions are not expected to get any better. The morning wave of tee times may produce better scores, like it did on Thursday, but there could be some low rounds out there for players out of the afternoon wave as well, like we saw with McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau on Thursday.

The winner of the $4.3 million victors’ purse may not be determined by the end of Friday, but we should at least know who will challenge for the crown come Sunday.

Cantlay and McIlroy’s rounds were the exception to Thursday’s scoring.

Both players rolled in five-under 65s while the rest of the field struggled just to remain around even-par.

Seven of the 15 players who finished with under-par rounds on Thursday were only at one-under, a group that included Sergio Garcia and Corey Conners.

Pinehurst is not expected to soften up overnight, so the struggles for the majority of the field will continue to happen on Friday.

The current projected cut line, which is the top 60 and ties, is two-over, but that number should rise at least a few strokes given how difficult the course played on Thursday.

Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele’s final scorecards did not suggest they had great rounds.

However, the first two major winners of 2024 actually had solid days saving themselves from an abundance of mistakes.

Schauffele’s first-round stats showed just how hard he fought to stay at even par. He had a -1.56 strokes gained off the tee, but was +2.13 in strokes gained putting, per Data Golf.

Scheffler saved himself with his approach game. He was +2.27 in strokes gained approach.

Both players showcased strong parts of their respective games, but the full product did not come together on Thursday.

A few tweaks to their games could give them under-par scores alongside McIlroy on Friday in what has the potential to be one of the lowest-scoring threesomes on the course.

And if that is the case, McIlroy, Scheffler and Schauffele will all enter the weekend in the top 10.

The major-winning version of Brooks Koepka showed up on his first nine holes on Friday.

Koepka rolled in three birdies on his first 10 holes and appeared to be in contention to be the first-round leader.

Koepka’s round was derailed by three bogeys in a four-hole swing on his second nine holes, which on Thursday was the front nine.

He was the rare golfer on Thursday who played near-perfect golf for a long stretch, and if that version of Koepka comes to the course on Friday, he could easily finish in red numbers.

Koepka is currently ninth in the field in strokes gained tee to green. He just needs to clean up his putting a bit to avoid the dropped shots he suffered on the front nine.

It would come as no surprise to anyone if Koepka was on the first page of a US Open leaderboard at the end of the round. That could set up for an incredible weekend, especially if McIlroy, Scheffler and Schauffele turn in solid Friday rounds.