UFC Denver predictions

Rose Namajunas’ flyweight journey continues.

It was a bumpy start in a new division for the two-time strawweight champion when she dropped a decision to Manon Fiorot 10 months ago, but she rebounded with a vintage performance against Amanda Ribas. Next, Namajunas features in her second 125-pound headliner when she fights Tracy Cortez on Saturday at UFC Denver.

Cortez is a dangerous fight for Namajunas, who currently sits at No. 10 at flyweight in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and No. 15 in the Pound-for-Pound Rankings. “Thug Rose” was originally scheduled to fight the higher-ranked Maycee Barber, but health problems forced her out and now it’s Cortez who looks to climb the ladder and take Namajunas’ spot. Cortez is yet to lose in the UFC, but she’s never faced an opponent of this caliber before.

In other main card action, longtime welterweight veterans Santiago Ponzinibbio and Muslim Salikhov battle it out, Drew Dober takes on late-notice replacement Jean Silva in a battle of knockout artists, Gabriel Bonfim looks to rebound from his first loss when he takes on Ange Loosa, Julian Erosa puts featherweight prospect Christian Rodriguez to the test, and Abdul Razak Alhassan faces Cody Brundage in a middleweight bout unlikely to go to the scorecards.

What: UFC Denver

Where: Ball Arena in Denver

When: Saturday, July 13. The six-fight preliminary card begins at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN and ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 10 p.m. ET also on ESPN and ESPN+.

Odds: DraftKings Sportsbook

Rose Namajunas vs. Tracy Cortez

There’s a lot working against Tracy Cortez here.

She’s facing a different opponent on short notice (Cortez was originally expected to fight Miranda Maverick on July 20), she’s fighting at altitude in Colorado where Rose Namajunas regularly trains, the bout will be in the larger octagon that theoretically favors the speedier Namajunas, and, oh yeah, she’s fighting Rose FREAKING Namajunas.

With respect to Cortez’s previous UFC opponents, Namajunas is an enormous step up in competition. Yes, Cortez has a size advantage and is gritty as hell, but I doubt that her physical tools are enough to make up for the gap in big-game experience. I just don’t think Namajunas is that far removed from the elite fighter who twice defeated Zhang Weili and Joanna Jedrzejczyk.

Add in that this is a five-rounder and it’s a lot to ask Cortez to hang with Namajunas for more than 10 minutes. At her best, Namajunas fights at a high pace, and that’s going to sap Cortez’s lungs quickly.

Namajunas will take the best Cortez has to offer in Round 1, watching Cortez’s tank drain as she does everything she can to force the fight to the ground. Once that threat is neutralized, Namajunas will pick Cortez apart, hurt her on the feet, and finish her on the ground in Round 3.

Pick: Namajunas

Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Muslim Salikhov

A tip of the cap to the UFC for age-appropriate matchmaking.

When you have a pair of venerable welterweights like Santiago Ponzinibbio (38 in September) and Muslim Salikhov (turned 40 this past Tuesday) lingering on the roster, it’s cynical to just throw them in there with up-and-coming prospects in the hopes of building off of their names. We need more matchups like this, where highly skilled athletes no longer in their primes can be called upon to show what they have left without the fear of a 20-something just randomly catching them with a knockout strike.

Ponzinibbio and Salikhov are both known for their patience and precision, so this has striking chess match written all over it. At times, it might resemble a high-level spar, which could draw the ire of the Denver crowd, but that’s what happens when you have two fighters who know what they’re doing. Look for the longer Ponzinibbio to control the range and take a lead on the scorecards.

If Salikhov feels he’s too far behind and takes a risk, there’s a chance for a late knockout — either Salikhov going for broke and nailing Ponzinibbio, or Ponzinibbio catching a rushing Salikhov with a KO shot. My guess is this one goes to the judges though.

Pick: Ponzinibbio

Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva

Whoever Jean Silva’s manager is deserves a raise.

The Brazilian Contender Series signee is as exciting as they come, but definitely ruffled some feathers when he missed weight two weeks ago for his 145-pound fight with Charles Jourdain at UFC 303. Silva blasted Jourdain for a second-round knockout to make some forget the gaffe, and he can put it completely in the rear-view if he does the same to Drew Dober while serving as a late lightweight replacement.

Fans have the memories of goldfish. You give them highlights and all is forgiven.

Frankly, even if Silva is the one KO’d on Saturday, his willingness to step in and face a top-20 lightweight like Dober should have him back in the good graces of the matchmakers. You don’t sign up for a fight with Dober without being prepared for an absolute war or the distinct possibility that you may temporarily be removed of your senses. Silva is a wild man, so this definitely suits him.

How this fight plays out depends on if Dober can figure out Silva’s unpredictable style. Silva loves to play around and obfuscate with his movement, a challenge not dissimilar to the one Dober faced when he beat Rafael Alves at UFC 277. Much like Silva, Alves had Dober out of sorts early in the fight before the Denver-based fighter found his rhythm and (Alves’ midsection).

Silva’s counter game is deadly, so Dober can’t rush in looking for a fast finish. They’ll trade shots early, but the larger and better-prepared Dober will catch Silva with a power punch in Round 2 and end it there.

Pick: Dober

Gabriel Bonfim vs. Ange Loosa

We’ll see if a camp change gets the explosive Gabriel Bonfim back on track, but at the moment all signs point to the Brazilian bouncing back after taking his first loss.

Could we see a slower start from Bonfim? That may be one key adjustment, given how he faded against the more experienced Nicolas Dalby in his most recent outing. A change in mindset combined with his extraordinary talent could be what unlocks his next level of progression.

It might not be wise to rush Ange Loosa anyway. Loosa has heavy hands, and while a knockout has eluded him at higher levels of competition, Bonfim doesn’t want to be the one break that streak. As one of the bigger underdogs on the card, Loosa will be eager to impress, and that could see him throw caution to the wind.

Loosa is the more varied striker, so this is his fight to lose in the standup, and if Loosa takes this to the ground, he’ll be walking right into Bonfim’s world. One of these fighters is poised to make a statement, and I’m leaning toward Bonfim taking Loosa down and tapping him out in the second.

Pick: Bonfim

Julian Erosa vs. Christian Rodriguez

There are no easy fights at 145 pounds and under, but man, it feels like Christian Rodriguez has been given a tougher path than most.

His past three wins have come against Isaac Dulgarian, Cameron Saaiman, and Raul Rosas Jr., a trio who were a combined 22-0 when they stepped into the cage with Rodriguez. He’s fared well against his fellow prospects, though weight misses at 135 pounds for his fights with Saaiman and Rosas cast a shadow over those performances. At featherweight, Rodriguez could be a serious contender.

We’ll get a better sense of that when he fights Julian Erosa, one of the most well-traveled fighters on the roster. Erosa is a long way from his prospect days, so he presents the kind of challenge Rodriguez hasn’t seen before. He’ll test all aspects of Rodriguez’s game, which is what Rodriguez’s team should want at this stage of his career.

Erosa is long and rangy and just so damn tricky, not to mention he can finish a fight anywhere. Rodriguez has to look out for Erosa’s submissions on the ground if that’s where he decides to take the fight. On the feet, we’ll see if Rodriguez’s aggression is enough to keep Erosa from getting his offense going. Much like on the ground, Erosa can be his most dangerous when you least expect it.

I believe Rodriguez is the real deal and someone we’ll see in the top 15 at featherweight in the not-too-distant future. He beats Erosa by decision.

Pick: Rodriguez

Abdul Razak Alhassan vs. Cody Brundage

This goes one of two ways: Abdul Razak Alhassan starches Cody Brundage in less than a minute, or Brundage survives an opening flurry, lets Alhassan expend 95 percent of his energy, and then comes back for the win in classic Brundage fashion.

There’s a fearlessness to Brundage that has to be admired. He’s not the most physically gifted or talented middleweight on the roster, but he finds a way to keep his name on main cards and wins just enough to keep cashing UFC checks. You get the sense he wouldn’t bat an eye if he was asked to step into the cage with Alex Pereira next week.

Alhassan is close to the other end of the spectrum. Blessed with devastating punching power, Alhassan often leaves you scratching your heads as to why he hasn’t seen more consistent results. This should be a quick night at the office for him. But we’ve said this before.

Against my better judgment, I’m going chalk and picking Alhassan to win by first-round knockout. If you’re the gambling sort, just remember, you’ve been warned.

Pick: Alhassan

Preliminaries

Joshua Van def. Charles Johnson

Fatima Kline def. Jasmine Jasudavicius

Montel Jackson def. Da’Mon Blackshear

Luana Santos def. Mariya Agapova

Andre Petroski def. Josh Fremd

Evan Elder def. Darrius Flowers