If you are a serious horseplayer and you are not already looking forward to the Saratoga Race Course meet, it might be time to check your pulse because Saratoga is the summer place to be for handicappers and horse racing aficionados.
The highly anticipated 40-day Saratoga racing season lasts throughout the heart of the summer from July 11, running five days a week Wednesdays through Sundays, and ending Labor Day, Sept. 2. The Saratoga meet will feature 71 stakes races worth a total of $20.75 million in purses, and the marquee stakes day will be Travers Day Saturday, Aug. 24.
Saratoga is not only about high-profile stakes races like the Travers. The daily meat-and-potatoes racing also is as good as it gets. The good news for bettors is that so many novice handicappers and tourists will be pumping money into the betting pools during the season that opportunities abound for more avid horseplayers to cash their share of good-value bets over the course of the meet. Here are some tips and trends to give you the edge on the betting public all summer at Saratoga.
Leading Saratoga Trainers
The Saratoga racing season attracts the best horses and horsemen, not only from New York but from everywhere. Trainers from many circuits point their best horses to Saratoga, and the competition for winners is stiffer at the Spa than it is anywhere else. Who will lead the way in 2024?
Chad Brown and Linda Rice finished in a tie for the 2023 Saratoga training title with 35 wins apiece, with Rice interrupting a long period of domination between Brown and Todd Pletcher, who had traded the Spa title back and forth since 2011. Brown won the training title at Saratoga in 2022 when his 42 wins were enough to hold off Pletcher who won 38. Brown won the Saratoga title in 2018, 2019, and 2021. Pletcher’s most recent meet title was in 2020. He also won in 2017 and every year from 2011-2015 as a part of his 14 overall training titles at Saratoga.
Don’t just bet Brown, Pletcher, and Rice horses indiscriminately. Bet them in their best spots. For Pletcher, we’re talking about dirt races, and in particular 2-year-old races. Pletcher won 10 Saratoga 2-year-old races in 2023 to far outpace any other trainer, just as he has done every season for more than a decade. For Brown, it’s turf routes, where he has annually topped all trainers each year for the last decade. In 2023, Rice owed her success to a high percentage of winners in dirt route races and turf sprints, particularly when it comes to maiden and claiming races.
At the 2023 Saratoga meet, Rice led all trainers in dirt wins with 29, which Pletcher was second-best with 21 dirt wins. In Saratoga turf races in 2023, Brown led all trainers with 19 winners. The only trainer that came close to him on the grass was Christophe Clement, who had 16 turf wins.
In terms of current form for these top barns, Brown and Rice led all trainers at the spring/summer Belmont at the Big A meet in what should be a precursor to another battle for leading trainer at Saratoga in 2024. Pletcher, on the other hand did what he almost always does and laid low during the proceeding Belmont meet so he can gear-up his stable with horses ready to win at Saratoga.
Saratoga Trainer Trends
Plenty of other trainers also will be good bets at Saratoga. Mike Maker is known for getting off to hot starts at Saratoga and then cooling off later, so bet him early. Maker won 12 races at Saratoga in 2023, 17 races in 2022, and 25 races in 2021. Despite this, Maker often gets overlooked. His average win payoff of $11.70 in 2023 was best among the eight leading trainers at the meet.
Steve Asmussen should win for a high percentage at Saratoga if recent results are any indication. He went 11-for-53 (21%) in 2023 after going 13-for-49 (27%) at the 2022 meet, and Asmussen won 19 races with a 23% win rate in 2021. The last three Spa summers, Asmussen has won a total of 18 Saratoga stakes races, and that’s a particular area of strength for him. Asmussen’s weakness at Saratoga is on the turf, where his record is 2-for-30 the last three summers.
Trainers that would have made you money in 2023 and could again do so in 2024 include Brad Cox, who has become a high percentage annual Spa threat after going 14-for-51 (27%) in 2023 after going 11-for-46 for 24% in 2022 and 13-for-48 for 27% in 2021. Thirty-two of Cox’s 38 wins the last three years were on the dirt, so focus on betting him on the main track. Norm Casse won with an astonishing seven of his 12 Spa starters in 2023 for 58%. Philip Bauer, meanwhile, won five races from 21 starters in 2023 (24%) after going 6-for-13 for 46% in 2022. Trainer H. James Bond trains his stable year-round in Saratoga and annually ups his win percentage at the Spa. George Weaver won 10 races from 44 starters (23%) in 2023 and is always one of the meet’s top winners in turf sprints. Weaver, along with Rice and Clement, are the meet’s top training trio in Saratoga turf sprints.
Top Saratoga Jockeys
When it comes to the nation’s leading riders, there is no meet in the country that can compete with the quality of the jock’s room at Saratoga. The title of leading rider at Saratoga carries more prestige than anywhere else.
Irad Ortiz Jr., 2021 Sanford Stakes, Saratoga Race Course, Eclipse Sportswire
Irad Ortiz Jr. after winning 2021 Sanford Stakes. (Eclipse Sportswire)
Irad Ortiz Jr. is the favorite to win another Saratoga riding title in 2024 after he ran away with the title at last year’s meet with 62 winners, good for a 25-win lead over second leading rider Jose Ortiz. Irad also won the 2022 title with 55 wins, giving him a 14-win margin over that year’s second leading riders, Flavien Prat and Luis Saez. Joel Rosario finished third in 2022 with 39 wins.
Either Irad or Jose Ortiz has won every Spa jockey title since 2015, with the exception of 2021 when Saez took the title with 64 wins.
At the 2023 Saratoga summer meet, Irad Ortiz Jr. won by far the most dirt races with 41 victories. Next were Jose Ortiz, Tyler Gaffalione, and Manny Franco, who all won 25 dirt races. Saez was right behind with 23. In 2022, Saez led all jockeys in Saratoga dirt wins with 29.
On the grass, Irad Ortiz usually wins the most turf races at Saratoga and that was true again last summer when he led all jockeys in turf wins with 21. He also had led all riders in turf victories in 2022 when he won 31 grass races. Irad’s dip in total turf wins from 2022 to 2023 was mostly because there were fewer turf races run at the 2023 meet due to an exceptionally rainy season. Flavien Prat has also cut into some of Ortiz’s turf business and taken away some winners since arriving to ride a full season at Saratoga for the first time in 2022. Prat finished sixth in the Spa standings in 2023 with 28 wins. He won 13 turf races at the 2023 meet after winning 26 times on the lawn in 2022.
Spa Jockey Angles
Bet the best jockeys in their best spots. Here are some jockey wagering tips based on stats from the 2023 Saratoga meet. Irad Ortiz was by far the leading winner of 2-year-old races with 16 juvenile winners and a 24% win percentage. The next leading rider in 2-year-old races was Franco with nine wins followed by Gaffalione with eight.
Irad Ortiz also led all jockeys in stakes wins in 2023 with 14. Franco was second in that category with seven stakes wins. In terms of win percentage in stakes, Jose Lezcano rode only 14 stakes but won four of them for a win percentage of 29%.
Irad Ortiz led all jockeys with mounts aboard favorites with 116 and thereby his average 2023 win payoff of $7.20 was the lowest amongst all jockeys. On the flip side, the jockeys among the top 10 at the 2023 meet who boasted the highest average win payoff more friendly to bettors were Franco, whose average winner paid $15, and Dylan Davis, whose average winner paid $18.90.
The jockeys with the highest disparity of route winners over sprint winners included Jose Ortiz, who won 23% of his route mounts but only 14% of his sprint mounts, and Prat, who won 18% of his route mounts but only 11% of his sprints. Lezcano was completely the opposite. He won 22% of his sprints and 16% of his routes.
Saratoga Track Trends
In terms of a winning track profile at Saratoga, let’s start with dirt sprints. The first thing to know is that the Spa’s main track is speed favoring at all dirt sprint distances. A total of 160 dirt sprints were run at Saratoga last summer, and horses with early speed on the lead or racing within a length of the pace won 93 of those races for 58%. Conversely, closers coming from four-plus lengths off the pace won only 16 of the 160 dirt sprints, accounting for just 10% of the total winners. In other words, you absolutely must factor early speed into your dirt sprint handicapping at Saratoga or else you are doomed. The speed bias is especially prevalent in 5 1/2-furlong races, particularly with 2-year-olds or in off-the-turf situations. Early speed horses on or within a length of the lead at the first call won more than two-thirds of all 5 1/2-furlong dirt sprints last year (21-of-31, 68%). As far as post positions go in these races, the inside posts offer no advantage and actually the middle posts 4-6 were most productive in 2023.
In Saratoga dirt routes including one mile, there were a total of 182 races run during the past two summers. Surprisingly there was little to no post-position advantage toward inside draws in these races, probably due to the fact the average field size in these races was just 6.6 starters. Just like in sprints, however, what has made a difference is a horse’s running style. Speed horses on or close to the lead have done best the last two years with wins in 95 of the 182 routes (52%). The worst running style in these races has been closers. Horses from 4-plus lengths off the pace won only 21 of the 182 dirt routes in 2022-’23, accounting for wins in only 12% of the races.
Spa Turf Tips
Turf sprints, which are all run at 5 1/2 furlongs, are a big part of racing and wagering at Saratoga as the track has been averaging about two turf sprints a day lately on days where they’re racing on the turf. In Saratoga 5 1/2-furlong turf sprints, downgrade the three inside posts, particularly the rail, in large fields with more than nine runners. Recent post-position raw stats indicate the inside is good or at least on par with the outside, but this is true only in smaller fields. Saratoga has prominently featured turf sprints for two decades and the inside posts have always under-performed in big fields.
In terms of running styles, all types have a fair chance to win Saratoga turf sprints, but the best running style the last two years has been stalkers racing between 1-4 lengths off the pace at the first call. These stalkers won 58 of the 118 turf sprints run in 2022-’23 to account for 49% of the races. Horses on or close to the pace won 31 of the 118 races to account for 26%, and closers won 29 of the races for 25%. As you can see, the stalkers had a big statistical advantage in these races the last couple years.
In turf routes, Saratoga uses two turf courses with about three times as many routes being carded on the inner turf as opposed to the Mellon (outer) turf course. As a general rule, the best strategy is to get closers on the outer turf course and bet against the outside posts on the inner turf course.
The last two years in the 2022 and 2023 summer seasons, there were a total of 158 routes run on the inner turf course and the only real trend in those races in terms of preferred post position or running styles was that the outside posts were a slight disadvantage. Horses from post 7 and outward won 33 of the 158 races, accounting for 21% of the wins. Meanwhile, inside posts 1-3 won 40% of the races and middle posts won 39%.
The Mellon (outer) turf course played totally differently from the inner course the last two years. The outer turf course had no bias at all in terms of post positions, but the running style advantage clearly favored closers in 2022 and 2023. There were a total of 52 turf routes run on the outer turf course the last two summers, and 24 of those races (46%) were won by closers coming from 4-plus lengths off the pace. Front-runners won 13 of the routes (25%) and stalkers won 15 of the routes (29%).
Finally, if you can get to the paddock for inner course turf races or if you can focus on the simulcast feed for inner turf races, look for physically small, athletic-looking horses instead of large, long-striding horses. The little guys handle the tight inner course turns nicely, while the big bulky horses generally don’t.
Hopefully, you can benefit from this Spa handicapping primer and use the information to your advantage. Have a great season at Saratoga, and good luck!
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