“They are going to win”: Florida belief sky high for Game 5 victory over Edmonton Oilers

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The 8-1 Edmonton Oilers thrashing of the Panthers in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final has done little to lessen the confidence in Florida of a Stanley Cup win in Game 5.

This isn’t surprising, given the excellence of Panthers goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and the fact Florida is up three games to one over Edmonton.

After the Game 4 loss, the hosts of the Cats ‘N Rats podcast, Kirby Lupul and Cody Stevens, agreed the Panthers would be back with a vengeance.

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“I’m confident for Game 5,” said Stevens. “I have 100% confidence in this team. You know they are going to bounce back. Be real with me, name me a time this year or the last two years that hasn’t happened… Knowing the make up of this team and how they are coached and how they play, they are going to win Tuesday.”

Said Lupul of Edmonton’s optimism:  “The Hope-ium has been very strong here north of the border. Only one team has ever come back from being down 3-0.”

Florida Panthers podcast commentator Jacob Winans added on Twitter X: “I still have plenty of confidence in this team. The past four periods have been alarming because it hasn’t looked like Panthers hockey. But I think they’ll be OK. Have to end this in (Game 5) or it gets really dicey. This is about as dejected as I can feel for having a 3-1 lead 🤷🏽‍♂️ … The mission in Edmonton was accomplished. They got the split. Selfishly I along with many MANY Panthers fans wanted it over last night because for many of us the watch party was our last chance to enjoy a game in the building with other Cats fans. But it’s a 3-1 series. Cats in 5.”

Reporter Alex Baumgartner of Florida’s 5 Reasons Sports: “This feels somewhat like Game 4 against Tampa where the Lightning came out the better and more desperate team. I think Edmonton has been better than Tampa was that game, I also think Florida has played worse tonight than they did against the Lightning…. And Florida won the next game (against Tampa).”

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Panthers fan Florida Panthers Muse noted:

This postseason, the Florida Panthers are 4-1 after a loss:

— Game 5 vs Lightning (6-1 W)
— Game 2 vs Bruins (6-1 W)
— Game 6 vs Bruins (2-1 W)
— Game 3 vs Rangers (5-4 L in OT)
— Game 4 vs Rangers (3-2 W in OT)

At the Panther Pourri, a Florida Hockey Now podcast, they weren’t worried about the Game 4 stomping: “This game can end 20-1. It’s irrelevant. You still have a 3-1 lead and a chance to clinch on home ice in 48 hours.”

Jacob Langsman, host of Panther Pourri, did not come across as worried, noting, “How many times do you think (Sam) Reinhart is gonna miss a yawning cage? How many times do you think (Brandon) Montour is gonna take Bob out of the play? How many times do you think the refs are gonna call a full two-minute 5v3? Last night was a night of anomalies and outliers… The Panthers have lost Game 4 three times in the last two years when up 3-0 in the series including last night. The other two times, they won Game 5. Last night wasn’t the end of the series. Keep the faith and bring it home. Cats in 5.”

And in the Panthers dressing room, Matthew Tkachuk said, “We’re in an unbelievable spot right now. We came here and after all that craziness got a split. Now we’re going home [to play] in front of our unbelievable fans. They’re so excited to see us and we’re so excited to play in front of them again.”

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My take

1. If the shoe were on the other foot, Oilers fans would have a similar amount of confidence, especially If the Oilers had a goalie like Sergei Bobrovsky in net. He stole wins in Game 1,  when Edmonton had 16 Grade A shots and the Panthers just eight, and also Game 3, when the Oilers had 19 Grade A shots and the Panthers just eight. Bobrovsky could steal another game where the Oilers dominate the flow of play and he could do so at any time. Why not in Game 5?

Or have the Oilers finally solved Bobrovsky somewhat, not trying to beat him with side-to-side passes, as his specialty is moving laterally to make a huge save Instead in Game 4, Edmonton took but firing high on him straight on. He suddenly looked as human in net as any other NHL goalie.

But here is a word of warning from former NHL goalie Eddie Lack: “It’s funny to hear “Oilers have figured Bob out”. Like they didn’t have 15 years of game tape to do this before the series. Bob had a bad game. He’s too good not to bounce back. Skinner needs to steal next one if this is gonna keep going.”

2. Florida played a powerful and impressive Game 2, getting the better of the Oilers when it came to the most dangerous of shots. Florida could well execute another such masterful forechecking and backchecking performance, as oppose to the utter shambles of team defence we saw in Game 4, when stalwarts like Aaron Ekblad, Anton Lundell and Gustav Forsling were all burnt to a crisp on several goals against. That kind of stumbletrons is highly unlikely to be repeated by Florida.

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3. Whatever comes next in this series, I suspect Game 5 will be the most difficult for the Oilers to win. Florida is hurting now, its players have been humbled, and it will be ferocious in its pursuit of a Stanley Cup clinching victory on home ice, not wanting in the least to return to Edmonton. Edmonton will need to ramp up its own defensive efforts, not give Florida any defensive freebies, and get both puck luck and strong goaltending.

4. To win Game 5, the Oilers will have to switch focus in a way, not thinking about the offensive fireworks in Game 4, and instead focus with fierce intensity on playing a smart, safe, sound and shut-down defensive game.  As coach Kris Knoblauch likes to say, defence wins championships.

Knoblauch is correct.

All season the Oilers have struggled to contain the Danger Man — the late attacker into the slot who sneaks in to receive a pass and fire off a dangerous shot. The Oilers are doing better at being on the look-out for this kind of play but they still have a number of players who are too puck focused, not aware of the real threat on a play, that Danger Man ready to pounce as they puck-watch.

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If the Oilers make it their main focus in the game to cover off this kind of Florida attack, they have a chance. If they don’t, they’ll lose.

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5. Overall, Edmonton has dominated when it comes to flow of play. Edmonton has had 64 Grade A shots to 38 for Florida. Things are closer when it comes to the subset of more dangerous 5-alarm shots, where its 31 to 24 for Edmonton. But none of that matters so long as Bobrovsky brings his best game for Florida and Florida makes the most of the “freebies” — as Oilers forward Zach Hyman called the mental errors leading to dangerous shots against — that come their way.

No freebies, Edmonton wins.

Cover off the Danger Man each play, Edmonton wins.

Simple as that.

But, of course, easier said than done.

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🦖 ryan lambert 🦕
@twolinepass
mcdavid and draisaitl are gonna have to go nuts the next three games. and it’s somehow now within the realm of possibility

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