The Travelers Championship Golf Predictions and Odds

The Travelers Championship

The 124th U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 proved to be one of the most thrilling and exciting in recent history. Two things can be true at the same time: Rory McIlroy choked away a golden opportunity to win his fifth career major and Bryson DeChambeau hit what he described as the “shot of his life” out of the bunker and 18 to take the victory.

McIlroy withdrew late Monday afternoon from this week’s event and is not scheduled to return to the Tour until he defends his Scottish Open title in July.

Masters champion Scottie Scheffler (4/1) finished a disappointing T-41 at the U.S. Open, but the clear World No. 1 player has won five times already in 2024 and finished 4th at the Travelers last year.

PGA champion Xander Schauffele (8/1) did not have his best at the Open, but still finished a respectable T-7th. Schauffele also won here at the Travelers two years ago in 2022. 

Two players reside at the 16/1 price point including Collin Morikawa, who disappointed with a T-14 at Pinehurst, and Ludvig Åberg, who may have finished just T-12, but showed his potential to win multiple future major championships and had the 36-hole lead last weekend. 

Patrick Cantlay (25/1) had a bird’s eye view of McIlroy’s collapse having been paired with him in the final round. Cantlay, the first-round co-leader along with McIlroy, could never get closer than 3rd on Sunday and that is where he finished along with Tony Finau (35/1). 

Hideki Matsuyama (28/1) finished 6th outright last weekend. Russell Henley (40/1) and Sam Burns (35/1) also finished in the Top 10 with a T-7 and a T-9 respectively. 

Aside from Schauffele, other former Travelers winners in this week’s field include last year’s champion Keegan Bradley (50/1), 2021 champion Harris English (80/1), and 2017 champion Jordan Spieth (50/1).

The Field 

Since this is a limited-field “Signature Event” just 71 players are in The Travelers Championship field this week. The field with DraftKings odds.

The Course

TPC River Highland, near Hartford, plays as a Par 70 of 6,835 yards, which is the 3rd shortest course on the PGA TOUR. Wind is the main defense and the winning score averages out to be in the mid-teens under par. 

In terms of the type of player this course favors, there really isn’t a prototype. Shorter hitters have won here as well as bombers. As always, ball striking and hitting greens with regularity are usually a good recipe for success and River Highlands is no exception in that regard.

Here is the official scorecard for the 2024 Travelers Championship (courtesy of PGATOUR.com):

Statistical Analysis

Keegan Bradley led the field for Strokes Gained: Approach in his victory here last year. 

Strokes Gained: Approach – Average Per Round (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 1.520
2. Corey Conners 0.920
3. Tony Finau 0.875
4. Tom Hoge 0.868
5. Xander Schauffele 0.773
6. Justin Thomas 0.572
7. Si Woo Kim 0.555
8. Ludvig Åberg 0.542
9. Shane Lowry 0.516
10. Hideki Matsuyama 0.503

Nearly half of the approach shots at TPC River Highlands are from the 125- to 175-yard range. 

Average Proximity to the Hole 125-150 yards (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Tom Hoge 20′ 3″ (feet, inches)
2. Chris Kirk 20′ 6″
3. Tom Kim 20′ 11″
4. Scottie Scheffler 21′ 0″
5. Shane Lowry 21′ 4″
6. Matthieu Pavon 21′ 4″
7. Lucas Glover 21′ 6″
8. Russell Henley 21′ 8″
9. Kurt Kitayama 21′ 9″
10. Davis Riley 21′ 9″

Average Proximity to the Hole 150-175 Yards (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 23′ 5″
2. Emiliano Grillo 24′ 9″
3. Kurt Kitayama 24′ 10″
4. Keegan Bradley 25′ 0″
5. Corey Conners 25′ 7″
6. Lucas Glover 25′ 7″
7. Ludvig Åberg 25′ 10″
8. Brian Harman 26′ 4″
9. Stephan Jaeger 26′ 4″
10. Sepp Straka 26′ 6″

There are only two Par 5s on this Par 70 layout at TPC River Highlands, so 12 of the 18 holes are Par 4s. 

Par 4 Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 23.55%
2. Christiaan Bezuidenhout 20.43%
3. Byeong Hun An 20.36%
4. Shane Lowry 20.33%
5. Chris Kirk 20.18%
6. Ludvig Åberg 20.00%
7. Tom Hoge 19.92%
8. Jordan Spieth 19.55%
9. Jason Day 19.35%
10. Wyndham Clark 19.28%

Overall Birdie Or Better Percentage (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Scottie Scheffler 28.18%
2. Byeong Hun An 25.44%
3. Xander Schauffele 25.05%
4. Wyndham Clark 24.94%
5. Tom Hoge 24.63%
6. Sam Burns 24.53%
7. Tony Finau 24.32%
8. Nick Dunlap 24.20%
9. Collin Morikawa 24.07%
10. Ludvig Åberg 23.92%

TPC River Highlands is one of the more difficult courses on the PGA TOUR to gain strokes around the green due to thicker rough around the greens, plus the smaller greens in general. 

Strokes Gained: Around The Green – Average Per Round (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Hideki Matsuyama 0.807
2. Webb Simpson 0.516
3. Justin Thomas 0.466
4. Scottie Scheffler 0.397
5. Collin Morikawa 0.388
6. Tommy Fleetwood 0.330
7. Russell Henley 0.325
8. Max Homa 0.322
9. Si Woo Kim 0.320
10. Xander Schauffele 0.313

Bradley also led the field here last year for Strokes Gained: Putting in his victory. The greens at TPC River Highlands are Bentgrass/Poa Annua but the Poa in the northeast is less bumpy than the Poa that you see on west coast courses particularly in California. Therefore, the greens are more predominantly Bentgrass (80/20 mix).

Strokes Gained: Putting – Bentgrass Greens (Last 36 Rounds)

1. Denny McCarthy 42.3
2. J.T. Poston 31.8
3. Viktor Hovland 30.2
4. Keegan Bradley 29
5. Matt Fitzpatrick 28.4
6. Justin Rose 28
7. Xander Schauffele 26.6
8. Harris English 24.2
9. Patrick Cantlay 24.1
10. Eric Cole 23.5

At just a little over 6,800 yards, TPC River Highlands does not require players to bomb it off the tee. Players can still be aggressive off the tee but have to be more on the accurate side. 

Total Driving – Driving Distance Rank + Driving Accuracy Rank (2024 PGA TOUR season)

1. Ludvig Åberg 41 (25 + 16)
2. Scottie Scheffler 66 (55 + 11)
3. Xander Schauffele 67 (35 + 32)
4. Jordan Spieth 81 (33 + 48)
5. Sam Burns 87 (43 + 44)
6. Kurt Kitayama 90 (39 + 51) 
7. Cameron Young 90 (38 + 52)
8. Matt Fitzpatrick 93 (69 + 24)
9. Harris English 95 (77 + 18)
10. Keegan Bradley 102 (59 + 43)

Stats via PGATOUR.com. 

Travelers Championship Predictions

Patrick Cantlay 20/1

Typically, guys that play the week following a good showing in a major are bet-againsts the very following week, but I am not sure that is the case here with Cantlay. 

He ranked 3rd in the U.S. Open field for Strokes Gained: Approach.

Cantlay has not finished lower than 15th in his last six starts here and his 4th last year was his best finish. 

Hideki Matsuyama 22/1

Matsuyama comes into this week with consecutive Top 10 finishes (6th U.S. Open; 8th Memorial).

He ranked 3rd last week at Pinehurst for both Scrambling and Strokes Gained: Around The Green. 

The irons should be a bit sharper this week. 

Corey Conners 30/1

Conners Top 10 (T-9) finish at the U.S. Open last weekend put him past his fellow Canadian Adam Hadwin for the second spot representing his country next month at the Olympics. 

He finished in the Top 10 here at Hartford last year and a shorter course that puts a premium on good approach shots should be right up his alley. 

Conners ranks 4th over the last 36 rounds for Strokes Gained: Total on Pete Dye designs only behind Scheffler and Schauffele – the two shortest prices on the odds board this week – and TPC River Highlands specialist Brian Harman. 

Brian Harman 40/1

Harman finished T-21 at the U.S. Open last week while ranking Top 10 for Strokes Gained: Putting.

He is a proverbial “horse for the course” here with finishes of 2nd, 8th, and 5th here over the last three years, plus three other Top 8 finishes here dating back to 2015.

The Open Champion will defend his Claret Jug next month at Royal Troon and could arrive there as a 2024 PGA TOUR season event winner considering his great run of form here plus this course having a good history of left-handers winning here with Bubba Watson (3) and Phil Mickelson (2) being victorious here on multiple occasions.

Tom Kim 40/1

Tom Kim has made nine consecutive cuts and finished 4th at the RBC Canadian Open two weeks ago when he shot 65-64 (second-best on the weekend). 

Last week, he finished T-26 at the U.S. Open but plummeted down the board on Sunday with a 6-over 76 when he was Top 10 after three rounds. 

The recent form is starting to get better and this is where he could pop with many players at the top of the odds board ready for a break before The Open next month.