The son also rises: what if Bronny James is the safest pick in the NBA draft?

The 2024 NBA draft is considered to be one of the weakest in recent memory, lacking any generational prospects or even a consensus No 1 overall pick when the names are called on Wednesday night. But it’s generating plenty of buzz because of a 6ft 2in guard projected to get picked late in the second round: LeBron Raymone James Jr, or Bronny James.

Bronny is a relatively unproven prospect, with just 25 games of college experience. But his decision to leave the University of Southern California after one disappointing season, hire Rich Paul’s Klutch Sports Group to represent him, and declare for the draft has been framed as some sort of nepotistic power arrangement that has more to do with his father than his ability. There is even speculation that a team may target Bronny in order to land LeBron, who could be an unrestricted free agent this summer and has spoken about wanting to play with his son, with the Los Angeles Lakers reportedly “willing to explore the notion of adding Bronny James” in an attempt to re-sign his father.

“Take away that bloodline,” wrote Brendan Marks in the Athletic. “And Bronny James is a multi-year college player, one who needs to continue honing his skills.”

But what is being lost in the discourse surrounding Bronny James is that he is Bronny James, the son of LeBron James – arguably the greatest basketball player of all time, and one of the best professional athletes ever. LeBron has dealt with an unprecedented amount of scrutiny since he was a teenager growing up and managed to handle it all mostly with calm, while winning championships with three different organizations.

For some reason, that’s being framed as if it’s a hindrance for Bronny – and the team that drafts him – when it could be the biggest competitive advantage in the draft.

“Any basketball purist recognizes that [LeBron’s] track record and knowledge of the game is second-to-none,” basketball analyst and trainer David Thorpe writes. “We can only guess that he has been imparting some of that knowledge to his kids. Full access to LeBron’s brain is like a cheat code for Bronny.”

Of course, being LeBron’s son is also going to come with pressures, because unless he becomes the greatest player of all time, Bronny will be overshadowed by his father’s accomplishments. Plus, his presence will bring an extra level of attention to whatever team he lands on.

But Bronny has already had 19 years to understand the burden that comes with his last name, having had his game scrutinized since he was 10 years old. That’s when LeBron called for college teams to stop recruiting Bronny, later saying that he regretted naming his eldest son after himself because of the pressure it put on him.

The flip side of the coin is that Bronny has the best support system imaginable; that he has the infrastructure in place to help him have a long career in the NBA because he has been around the league forever and will never lack for mentorship (his godfather is Chris Paul), trainers, facilities, good advice or any of the other resources that rookies need to succeed.

It’s no coincidence that the league is stocked full of children of former NBA players, with a record 34 last season. In fact, new research suggests that second-generation athletes are vastly underrated coming out of the draft, with the 68 draftees whose fathers played in the NBA since 1989 outperforming their expected value at their draft slot by 30%. The Golden State Warriors built the best backcourt of all time from this philosophy, drafting Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, while fellow All-Stars like Domantas Sabonis, Andrew Wiggins, Jalen Brunson, Devin Booker, and Al Horford all learned from their fathers’ experiences in the league.

Bronny is an interesting prospect in his own right. He got off to a strong start to his high school career at Sierra Canyon as a point guard before the Covid-19 pandemic and a torn meniscus surgery derailed his sophomore season, when his ranking dropped significantly.

However, Bronny recovered and played a major role in his senior year, averaging 13.8 points, 5.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.8 steals as he led Sierra Canyon to a 23-11 record. He also had an outstanding summer with his AAU team and was selected to play in the McDonald’s All-American Game and the Nike Hoop Summit. At the time, ESPN had him No 10 overall in their 2024 mock draft due to “the significant jump he has made … developing into arguably the best perimeter defender in his high school class while making strides in his perimeter shooting and playmaking ability.”

Bronny committed to USC in May 2023, deciding to stay close to home. However, before the season even started, Bronny collapsed to the floor at the Galen Center during a USC training session and was later revealed to have suffered cardiac arrest caused by a congenital heart defect, putting into question whether or not the then 18-year-old would ever play basketball again.

“It was a tough time for sure,” Bronny said about the heart scare. “But all this work that I’ve put in, it just really built me into someone that would never give up, and it paid off. I put in the work after that situation, and I’m back to where I want to be.

He added: “I feel like my parents were a big factor of believing in me and giving me the love and affection that I needed at that time. I still think about everything that could happen, but I just love the game so much that it just overpowers me.”

Less than five months removed from his cardiac arrest, Bronny made his collegiate debut for the Trojans, coming off the bench in 19 of his 25 games as a defensive-specialist who played primarily off the ball, averaging 4.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 0.8 steals in 19.4 minutes per game. Despite having good mechanics, Bronny struggled with his jump shot, hitting just 26.7% of his threes for a disappointing USC team that went 15-18 and failed to make the NCAA Tournament.

Because of those disappointing 25 college games, the narrative surrounding Bronny has focused on his unclear positional fit as an undersized guard who will need to play primarily off the ball while lacking an elite jump shot. But as is the case so often in the draft, the focus has been what Bronny can’t do instead of what he can. And with Bronny projected to go somewhere in the second round anyway, it’s worth mentioning that he possesses a lot of the characteristics that ultimately determine whether a role player has what it takes to stick in the league.

With a 6ft 7in wingspan and strong defensive instincts, Bronny has a clear understanding of what role he is likely to play, pointing to Davion Mitchell, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White as players he hopes to emulate. Like his father, he also has an unselfish mindset on court that suggests that he’s an “outstanding teammate who communicates at a very high level and looks consumed with playing the right way and making winning plays,” according to ESPN.

Bronny has shown resilience, too, overcoming an unbelievable amount of scrutiny, games being canceled due to hecklers, the pandemic, a torn meniscus, ESPN crews following his high school team, a cardiac arrest just to be in a position to play in the NBA.

The NBA draft is a crapshoot, even more so in the second round, as teams begin to focus on players that can stick around rather than trying to find future stars. It’s rare for those draftees to contribute, with only 25% of the 56 players taken in the second round of the past two drafts becoming rotation players, while 27% of them are no longer in the NBA.

And if you listen to NBA players – especially the ones who have been around the longest without becoming stars – that ability to stick around is much less about skill coming out of the draft than it is about intangibles: factors like professionalism, a lack of ego, listening to your peers, a strong work ethic, the ability to stay out of trouble, and learning how to excel in a limited role. In an era of constant distractions, the mental side of the game is more important than ever.

“It is the small stuff,” LeBron said on the Mind the Game podcast when asked what rookies need to do to succeed in the NBA. “Coaches and veterans being able to get on them and there’s no snickering, there’s no back talk, there’s no ‘ahhh,’ all that. It’s just, almost, they almost look like, just keep on coming with it, because … I’m absorbing everything. That’s when you know, like: Oh, he’s going to be in this league for a long time.”

Garrett Temple, an undrafted 14-year NBA veteran, agrees. “A lack of professionalism will get you out the league quicker than any lack of talent can,” he told Andscape. “Make sure they have a support system around you that tells you when you’re wrong.”

Is Bronny going to be a standout NBA player in his rookie year? Probably not. Nineteen year olds rarely are. Will he ever make an All-Star team? Almost certainly not. Is he anywhere near as talented as his father? No. But like other sons of NBA players who came before him, Bronny has a built in advantage and he is solid enough to not look out of place alongside professionals. And if a team drafting in the second round wants a role player who could carve out a long career in the NBA, there is no safer bet than Bronny James.