The final men’s Major of the season is almost upon us, and after successfully tipping Bryson DeChambeau at the US Open last month, Golf Monthly’s betting expert Barry Plummer returns to help you find the winner at Royal Troon.
The list of names who have already taken a Major title this season is a who’s who of golfing brilliance, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see someone from the top of the board take this one.
That doesn’t detract from the obvious value available in this event, however, with Brian Harman reminding us last year that big price winners are more than capable of lifting the one of the best trophies in golf, the Claret Jug. In this comprehensive betting guide, Barry Plummer shares his best bets and value picks for the 152nd Open Championship…
The Open Championship Betting 2024: The Course
This famous Ayrshire course is steeped in history, and has provided the stage for some of the most iconic moments at the Open Championship. In 2016, Henrik Stenson battled Phil Mickelson in a true classic, with the Swedish star prevailing thanks to a closing 63.
The course will be longer than when Stenson and Mickelson locked horns eight years ago, with the official card reading 7,385 yards for this years Open Championship. That’s 195 yards longer than in 2016, with the par-5 fourth hole accounting for almost a quarter of that increase (lengthened 44 yards).
The most famous hole is undeniably the ‘Postage Stamp’, a tricky par-3 that lurks as you head into the turn, is short in length but bites back with a narrow green measuring just 30 yards long and around 10 yards wide.
The wind will most certainly play its part, so in order to lift Claret Jug players will need to plot their way strategically and avoid the perils of the rough and bunkers synonymous with Scottish links golf.
The Previous Winners
2023: Brian Harman (-13)
2022: Cameron Smith (-20)
2021: Collin Morikawa (-15)
2020: Cancelled due to COVID-19 pandemic
2019: Shane Lowry (-15)
Who Will Win The US Open 2024? Bazza’s Bankers…
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Xander Schauffele (14/1) stormed to victory at the PGA Championship in May, breaking the men’s Major Championship scoring record in the process. The eight-time PGA Tour winner has statistically been the second highest ranked golfer for Strokes Gained (SG): Total since the start of Major season, with only World No.1 Scottie Scheffler outperforming him.
Schauffele has four top-10 finishes in his last five starts, with the outlier being a tied-13th finish at the Travelers Championship last time out. When you consider he is almost double the price of Rory McIlroy, who was hasn’t won a Major in more than ten years and agonisingly passed up a great chance to break that unwanted streak at the US Open, I believe he represents excellent value against the other favourites in the outright betting market.
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Another player I like towards the top of the board is Viktor Hovland (22/1), who despite a bleak spell in recent months is still one of the most overdue to win a Major Championship.
Things haven’t gone to plan since his Tour Championship victory last year, but signs of Viktor returning to his best are starting to emerge. Since his missed cut at The Masters, Hovland has gained strokes off the tee and approaching the green in each of his last five starts, and has gained at least a shot on the field in both key metrics on three of those five occasions.
Three top-20 finishes, including a 3rd place at the PGA Championship, suggest he could be about to find top gear and if he does I think this could be the perfect place to win his first Major Championship.
Who Will Win The US Open 2024? The Value Picks…
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Max Homa (80/1) is a ridiculous price to lift the Claret Jug, and I can only assume it’s because he hasn’t played his best stuff recently. Despite hid Strokes Gained data suggesting a minor slump, it’s hard to ignore his form in this event and more widely in Scotland.
Homa was tied-10th in the Open Championship last year, but his two previous appearances at the Genesis Scottish Open have both yielded top-16 finishes. His ‘poor’ form, if you can call it that, still consists of a tied-3rd finish at the Masters and tied-8th at the Wells Fargo Championship, with a total of 8 top-25 finishes in 16 starts this season.
At this price, I cannot ignore the each-way value that Max Homa represents and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him contend again in this part of the world.
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My final selection is one I am really excited about, and once again I cannot believe the price on offer. Dean Burmester (150/1) has been sensational this season, winning twice on the DP World Tour at the back end of 2023 and following up with a first LIV Golf win in Miami just three months ago.
His record for 2024 also boasts two third place finishes, at LIV Mayakoba and LIV Adelaide, and a tied-12th finish at the PGA Championship demonstrates his ability to mix it in Majors.
Burmester also has some cracking form in both the Open Championship and other events on Scottish soil. He was 7th at the Alfred Dunhill Links back in 2021, and 10th at the Genesis Scottish Open in 2022, while his most recent open appearance was a tied-11th finish at St. Andrews.
A strong start at LIV Andalucia means he could even have another win on his resume by the time he tees it up at Royal Troon, so at this price I believe he represents unbelievably good each-way value.
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