The dollar bears wanted a stronger signal on September | Forexlive

The US dollar has rebounded following the FOMC decision, erasing much of the post-CPI drop.

After CPI, the Fed funds futures market priced in an 80% chance of a September rate cut and Powell has a (well deserved) reputation for being a dove. I strongly suspect that many market participants were expecting him to put September in play, or at least offer some strong hints.

Instead, he leaned heavily into data dependence. Combine that with the year-end dot showing just one cut and the market is suddenly feeling vulnerable to being left out to dry, or at least whipped around by the data. Given that equities were at all-time highs ahead of Powell, you can see the temptation to take some off the table.

The US dollar still looks like the cleanest dirty shirt in the global closet and once again the dollar bulls have bought the dip, despite a clear drop in CPI.