Ten thoughts on the Leafs offseason: Hakanpää’s status, the Tanev effect, future of PP1

The Toronto Maple Leafs roster for the 2024-25 season appears pretty well set.

And while “running it back … again!” is what will define this offseason, there’s plenty to examine in the aftermath of the free-agent frenzy.

Here are 10 thoughts on how things are shaping up for the Leafs.

1. Chris Tanev will instantly become the best partner Morgan Rielly has played with in the NHL, a list topped at this point by TJ Brodie.

What’s odd — and speaks to some of the issues the Leafs have had on the back end over the years — is that Rielly played with Brodie only once over four postseasons. That was in 2021 in Brodie’s first season as a Leaf. (The two were excellent in a losing effort against Montreal.) Rielly had Ilya Lyubushkin by his side in the playoffs the following year, Luke Schenn the year after that, and Lyubushkin again this past spring. The annual Who plays with Rielly? conversation won’t be a thing (for a while) now that the Leafs have Tanev.

The effect Tanev might have on Rielly feels like a sneaky important part of this signing. Rielly can do more Rielly things knowing he’s got Tanev back there for support.

Tanev played primarily with Noah Hanifin over three-plus seasons in Calgary. During their minutes together, the Flames won over 58 percent of the expected goals. When Hanifin played without Tanev: 53 percent. When Tanev played without Hanifin: 56 percent.

Tanev should provide a similar boost to Rielly.

The Leafs’ longest-serving player’s best season in the NHL — 20 goals, 72 points and a fifth-place finish in Norris Trophy voting — was in 2018-19 when he had 37-year-old Ron Hainsey by his side.

What level can he reach with Tanev?

2. Tanev will vault straight to the top of the penalty-killing depth chart in Toronto. The team leader in short-handed ice time during the regular season? That would be Brodie, who played only once in the playoffs.

The Leafs had the 23rd-ranked PK in the regular season and killed off a ghastly 65 percent of power plays in the playoffs.

Tanev is a meaningful upgrade there.

Jani Hakanpää might be, too. If he’s healthy (more on that in a second), he’ll join Tanev on PK1 or stand tall with Simon Benoit and/or Oliver Ekman-Larsson on PK2. If the 32-year-old Hakanpää is unavailable, the Leafs could roll out combos that look something like this:

3. The Leafs could have used another forward with penalty-killing expertise in free agency (or trade). Not doing so means hoping younger players like Pontus Holmberg and Connor Dewar take a step forward next season.

A PK-related curiosity for Craig Berube and Lane Lambert, who will presumably run the PK next season: How much does Mitch Marner, in particular, but also William Nylander and to a lesser extent, Auston Matthews, factor onto the special teams unit?

Marner was a staple on the No. 1 unit under Sheldon Keefe and for good reason; Marner’s activity, stickwork and instincts make for a strong blend on the PK. Does the new coaching staff prefer to scale back his minutes, even a little, in the hopes he’s fresher in the postseason?

That’s how the Edmonton Oilers shaved Connor McDavid’s responsibilities back just a bit last season — from 22:23 minutes per game two seasons ago to 21:22 on average.

McDavid went from killing penalties regularly under Jay Woodcroft to not killing at all under his replacement, Kris Knoblauch. It’s not a perfect comparison because Marner plays a larger role on the PK than McDavid ever did, but perhaps Berube and company will want to lean more on bottom-six types like Knoblauch did, to preserve the stars and define roles for others.

In St. Louis, Berube wasn’t afraid to use his big guys — Ryan O’Reilly, Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas — on the PK, so maybe not.

It’s worth keeping in mind that Marner started last season on PK2. That experiment ended quickly as Calle Järnkrok struggled in a larger role.

4. I suspect the delay in the Leafs officially announcing the Hakanpää signing (a proposed two-year deal, with a cap hit of $1.5 million) is tied to health. Hakanpää played for the final time last season on March 16 because of a knee injury. I have to believe the Leafs wanted their own doctors to get a look at Hakanpää up close before they finalized the commitment. Only with that sign-off does Hakanpää figure to become a Leaf.

5. Part of the appeal for the Leafs front office in bringing Max Domi back with a four-year contract on the eve of unrestricted free agency is his ability to play centre. The Leafs wanted a centre in free agency, but few were available — and those few proved too pricey for a group that was prioritizing defence. I think the Leafs would have loved to bring in Chandler Stephenson, for instance, but he chose Seattle on a seven-year, $43.75 million deal. It’s an area they hope to address in-season.

6. One problem GM Brad Treliving will face on that front (still): a lack of trade ammunition.

The Leafs have only one pick in the first four rounds of the 2025 draft at the moment, and it’s a second they acquired from Florida at last month’s draft. Their most attractive pick to move is a first in 2026. Another top trade asset, potentially: Easton Cowan.

7. A question for new Leafs assistant coach Marc Savard to ponder in the coming months: Should Ekman-Larsson replace Rielly as quarterback of the No. 1 power-play unit?

Ekman-Larsson has all kinds of experience in the role, though he spent most of last season playing behind Brandon Montour on Florida’s No. 2 unit (and then replaced him in the Stanley Cup Final). He also, crucially, could offer PP1 a legitimate shot threat from deep.

Rielly has scored 14 power-play goals total in 791 regular-season games (and two in 57 career playoff games). Ekman-Larsson has mustered 59 in 982 career games.

Most of that production came during his peak years in Arizona, but Ekman-Larsson will still let it rip. Last season, he attempted 25 shots per 60 minutes on the power play.

Rielly fired just over 15.

My prediction: Ekman-Larsson gets the first look, not unlike last fall when John Klingberg grabbed the early assignment.

8. Is that it as far as changes go for PP1? It’s a sticky challenge for Savard. A loaded top unit has excelled year after year in the regular season — third-best over the last five — only to fall apart in the playoffs.

So, how much to change?

Guy Boucher, who had the controls of the power play last season, replaced Marner on the left flank with Nylander, making Nylander a more central part of the action. Nylander responded with a career-best (and team-high) 35 points.

The Leafs felt the shots they got on the power play in the playoffs came from too far out — further than in the regular season. They didn’t get inside enough.

You can see that in their attempts in Game 7:

The numbers bear it out: The Leafs generated only 7.6 expected goals and 23.6 high-danger attempts per 60 minutes on the power play in the playoffs, down from 9.7 and almost 32.9 in the regular season.

Does Savard move the pieces around again, somehow? Does he keep Marner, Nylander, Matthews and John Tavares together on the top unit? Or does he split them up onto separate units? Given how much things have cratered in the postseason, I’d lean toward trying something new. Say, Matthews and Nylander on PP1, and Tavares and Marner becoming central components of their own units. In the 2023 playoffs, Nylander had some success as the focal point of PP2.

9. Besides the centre-ice position and a two-pronged question mark in goal, the Leafs are clearly weaker at left wing after Tyler Bertuzzi’s departure, with no external replacement.

Right now, the top two spots likely belong to Matthew Knies, who will be entering his second NHL season, and Bobby McMann, who didn’t grab a full-time spot in the lineup until February last season.

It’s an inexperienced group and would explain why the Leafs had interest in Jeff Skinner in free agency. Add Skinner to the top six and suddenly McMann slots in more appropriately on the third line.

10. Left wing should be a battle at training camp.

Knies and McMann may not be guaranteed top-six spots (even if Knies, in particular, feels like a lock after a dominant postseason).

There’s room for Nick Robertson to demand a look there with his play, assuming he sticks around.

Robertson’s frustration (and resulting trade request) undoubtedly lies in the fact he not only played irregularly last season (13 healthy scratches in the regular season, plus Game 7 against Boston), but he didn’t play much when he was in the lineup. Robertson averaged just under 11.5 minutes. He was in single figures on 14 different occasions, including a season-low 7:42 against Minnesota in November. He averaged under 10 minutes per game in the playoffs.

There was a lack of power-play time that should be righted next season. Robertson totalled 45 minutes there, only sometimes getting the call on PP2 when he played. He still scored once and added two assists. (Järnkrok, for comparison’s sake, failed to score and registered only a single assist in 66 minutes.) Barring a breakup of PP1, that second unit will never play much, but when they do, Robertson — and that heavy shot — merits a more meaningful look.

— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, CapFriendly and Hockey Reference

(Top photo of John Tavares playing the puck as Jani Hakanpää defends: Andrew Lahodynskyj / NHLI via Getty Images)