T20 Cricket World Cup 2024 semifinal qualification scenarios: Rules, chances and points required for progressing from Super 8 groups | Sporting News

The race for the ICC T20 Cricket World Cup 2024 has started to heat up with the Super 8 games well underway. South Africa and reigning champions England have already announced themselves as strong competitors having won their Super 8 clashes against both the hosts, USA and the West Indies respectively. 

Meanwhile, the other strong contenders for the title, India and Australia are in a different group altogether and will be facing each other in a mammoth clash in St. Lucia on June 24. So far, both the teams have managed to stay unbeaten in the tournament and will be aiming to keep up the same momentum until the end of the competition. 

Once the Super 8 clashes are concluded, the four semifinalists of the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 will be determined according to their group standings. 

For now, the top eight teams of the tournament have been segregated into two groups of four teams each. The top two teams from each group will go through to the semifinals of the competition. 

• Group 1: India, Afghanistan, Australia, Bangladesh
• Group 2: England, South Africa, USA, West Indies

Here, The Sporting News takes a quick look at the qualification scenarios for both groups and the four likely semifinalists. 

Rules for the semifinal qualification in ICC T20 World Cup 2024

In the Super 8 stage of the tournament, the top two sides from each group will qualify for the semifinals. If more than two teams are tied on points for qualification, the two semifinalists from each group will be determined using the following process. 

• The team with the greatest number of wins will be placed in the higher position. 
• If two or more teams are equal in terms of both points as well as wins, the team with the higher Net Run Rate (NRR) will be placed higher in the standings. 
• If the two or more teams are equal in Net Run Rate as well, they will be ordered according to the head-to-head matches played between them (points and then NRR in those matches).
• If somehow the teams still remain to be equal, the team with a higher ranking according to the ICC Men’s T20I Rankings will be placed higher. Standings as at the 31st of May, 2024 will be considered. 

Current ICC T20I rankings for Super 8 teams: India (1st), Australia (2nd), West Indies (3rd), England (4th), South Africa (5th), Bangladesh (9th), Afghanistan (10th), USA (17th)

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Semifinal qualification scenarios for teams in Group 1: India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Australia

Group 1 of the Super 8 round is much trickier than it seems to be, despite the two clear favorites to qualify in India and Australia. Afghanistan and Bangladesh both have recently made a reputation of playing the role of giant slayers, especially Afghanistan. 

India

India started their Super 8 campaign well, with a 47-run win over Afghanistan in their first Super 8 clash. They followed it up with a 50-run win over Bangladesh which they thought had all but punched their ticket to the semifinals. 

However, Australia’s shock defeat to Afghanistan has put the cat amongst the pigeons. India are still pretty safe. However, if they suffer a big loss to Australia and Afghans defeat Bangladesh, all three of India, Australia and Afghanistan will have 4 points each and then NRR comes into play. As long as the defeat to Australia is not extremely heavy, India should be through.

Even a washout against Australia will see India go through.

Chance of qualification: 90% 

Afghanistan 

Afghanistan have been in stunning form in the ongoing T20 World Cup group stages. But after a loss to India in the first game of Super 8, they managed to pull off a huge upset by defeating Australia. 

Now, Afghanistan have a great chance of qualification. But they must defeat Bangladesh in the final Super 8 game and hope India defeats Australia. If India lose to Australia, Afghanistan must improve their NRR as then it might decide who goes through from India, Australia and Afghans. 

And the Afghans have the advantage of playing their game against Bangladesh after India take on Australia. They will know what exactly they need to do against Bangladesh to go through to the semi. (For example, if Australia beat India by 1 run, Afghanistan will need to beat Bangladesh by 36 runs to overtake the Aussies’ NRR)

Chance of qualification: 50%

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Australia

The 2021 World T20 champions were odds-on favorites, alongside India, to qualify for the semifinals from this group. 

They started with a win over Bangladesh but a shock upset against Afghanistan has put Aussies’ chance of qualification in real danger. They now have no option but to defeat India in the final Super 8 match. Anything else could see them get knocked out. Even if they beat India, they should hope Afghanistan loses to Bangladesh or their NRR does not go above Australia’s if they win against Bangladesh.

Chance of qualification: 50%

Bangladesh

Out of all the teams in Group A, Bangladesh are the least likely to qualify for the semifinals. Bangladesh struggled in their group games, but managed to scrap victories. But their Super 8 journey started with two defeats.

After their loss against Australia and India, their hope of qualification is all but over. Bangladesh’s faint hopes rest on them beating Afghanistan and hoping India defeats Australia. In this case, Bangladesh, Australia and the Afghans will have 2 points each. And Bangladeshis need their NRR to take a huge upturn as well, which frankly is not likely to happen.

Chance of qualification: 5%

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Semifinal qualification scenarios for teams in Group 2: England, South Africa, USA, West Indies

Group 2 of the Super 8s is undoubtedly the more competitive group out of the two groups with heavyweights like South Africa, England and the West Indies.  

England

Reigning World T20 champions, England barely secured qualification for the Super 8s with a number of events going their way. But in their first Super 8 game against the West Indies, the English secured a dominant win with 8 wickets, shooting up their Net Run Rate.

They suffered a narrow 7-run defeat to South Africa in the second Super 8 match. West Indies’ one sided win over USA caused a bit of concern for Jos Buttler and team, but a resounding win over the USA buried all doubts. England are the first team to qualify for the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 semi finals

Chance of qualification: 100%

South Africa

The Proteas are always a threat in World Cups, and have proved that once again having won all of their games that they have played in the tournament so far. They started the Super 8 stage by defeating the United States. Despite a fighting effort, USA fell short of South Africa’s total of 194 runs by 18 runs.

South Africa then beat England in the second Super 8 match to take lead in group 2. Despite the lead, Windies’ win against USA has changed the entire context of Group 2.

Despite winning two games already, South Africa will have to defeat West Indies in the final game to ensure qualifcation. In essence, SA have a do-or-die game against West Indies. A washout will also help South Africa reach semi.

Chance of qualification: 55%

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USA

Co-hosts of the tournament, USA have already done a commendable job by qualifying for the Super 8s. They lost their first Super 8 game against South Africa but displayed tremendous grit nonetheless. Their second game proved to be one-sided though as the West Indians displayed a show of dominance in the front of the fans at Kensington Oval, Barbados. They lost their final Super 8 game against England and are officially out of the tournament 

Chance of qualification: 0%

West Indies

Following a strong group-stage finish with four wins, West Indies struggled against the reigning champions, England in their opening Super 8 clash. The Windies are a strong team though and managed to win their second game against USA with over 9 overs remaining which has put their NRR in a comfortable zone. 

They now play a must-win match against South Africa. If they win, they are through. If it is a washout or a loss, the hosts will be out.

Chance of qualification: 50%

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How will the semifinals fixture be determined? 

The semifinal fixtures of the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 will be determined by the position of teams after the Super 8 games conclude. The semifinal fixtures will be determined by the following process: 

• Semifinal 1: Winner of Group A vs Runners-up of Group B
• Semifinal 2: Winner of Group B vs Runners-up of Group A

NOTE: If India qualify for the semifinal, they will be playing in the second semifinal in Guyana on June 27. 

When are the ICC T20 World Cup 2024 semifinals?

Semifinal 1 is scheduled at the Brian Lara Cricket Stadium in Trinidad and Tobago on June 26, while the semifinal 2 will be played on June 27 at the Providence Stadium in Guyana.