Super Screener preview: Find value on Ohio Derby day

Fans of my fair odds series are familiar with the concept of the most likely winner still being overbet, and so it goes with the Dr. T.F. Classen Memorial on Saturday at Thistledown where a member of the three-horse entry is the biggest threat to win but is unlikely to offer value in this spot.

Lemon Mousse checks a lot of boxes in terms of form cycle and trip projection, but her entry, which includes Near Perfect and Goodness Sakes, figures to be odds-on off a 5-2 morning line. That price makes her tough to back.

Lofty Cowtown is 20-1 on the morning line, and Horse Racing Nation‘s AI-generated projected odds line figures she will be every bit of that price, which is music to Mike Shutty’s ears.

“This is admittedly a hit-or-miss top longshot pick, but the value will be there against the favored entry,” Shutty writes in this week’s Super Screener. “She won three straight last year before regressing pretty badly to close out 2023. Her return now off a six-month layoff comes with a bullet workout two back, leaving us bullish on her chances to return near her top form. She projects to sit a few lengths off the pace, and if she’s ready to fire fresh, then she’ll be the one running late to pull off a massive upset.”

Super Screener is available every week, and if you buy now, you can get every week through Breeders’ Cup plus Power Picks and Horses to Single every day. Power Picks are firing at 40 percent winners at the current Thistledown meeting and have a positive ROI at New York Racing Association tracks, Aqueduct and Saratoga, since April 1. Horses to Single is doing similarly well at NYRA facilities, going 13-for-24 with a positive 22 percent ROI in that time.