Steve Matthews’ Belmont Stakes 2024 horse-by-horse analysis

The 2024 Belmont Stakes will be run at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs on Saturday, June 8.

BELMONT STATES TOP FOUR SELECTIONS 

• MINDFRAME

• RESILIENCE

• SIERRA LEONE

• PROTECTIVE

1. Seize the Grey

Seize the Grey enjoyed a perfect trip when loose on the lead to win the Preakness, tallying career-best pace and final figures in the process. Such huge forward moves frequently lead to a regression in the next start and that’s what this corner is expecting. Wouldn’t touch him unless he’s 20-1 or greater.

2. Resilience

Resilience made a menacing middle move in the Derby and flattened out late. Actually, that was to be expected as he was coming off a lifetime-best effort when winning the Wood in his prior outing. He logged a crisp half-mile work on Sunday and has the look of a live long shot. Worth serious consideration if 12-1 or greater at post time.

3. Mystik Dan

The Derby winner tried his best but just couldn’t muster enough late push to catch Seize the Grey in the Preakness. He’s strung too many strong efforts together without much recovery time and could be ripe to bounce on Saturday. Don’t take less than 10-1 if you like him.

4. The Wine Steward

The Wine Steward has never been worse than second in six lifetime starts but his final figures are a touch too slow for this group. Keep the cork in the bottle at anything less than 50-1.

5. Antiquarian

Antiquarian bested The Wine Steward by nearly a length when winning the Peter Pan Stakes last time and like that one, he simply appears overmatched on the final numbers. For Todd Pletcher-John Velazquez lovers only.

6. Dornoch

Dornoch endured a tough trip when 10th in the Derby, but it’s hard to say how he’ll react to the worst trouncing of his career. Not the type this corner is looking to play. Demand 40-1 or better if he tickles your fancy.

7. Protective

He’s still a maiden but could find the 1 1/4-mile distance to his liking. Not the worst runner to put on exotics tickets if greater than 40-1.

8. Honor Marie

Honor Marie got derailed in the Derby after making an encouraging move on the numbers two starts back. Another beefy priced inclusion on your gimmick plays.

9. Sierra Leone

Sierra Leone had the sizzling early pace in his favor when second by a nose in the Derby. Trainer Chad Brown blamed the defeat on jockey Tyler Gaffalione for mishandling the whip and switches to Flavien Prat on Saturday. Whether a new rider will make a difference is debatable. What’s certain is he’ll be a terrible bet if at or below his 9-5 morning line.

10. Mindframe

He’s lightly raced but he’s oozing with talent. Two starts and two wins by a combined 20 ½ lengths. He’s got a tough post to overcome and a discouragingly low ML, but he’s our top pick if 7-2 or greater.