Stephen Foster 2024: Odds and analysis for 9-horse field

The Grade 1, $1 million Stephen Foster Stakes, which will be run Saturday at Churchill Downs, drew a field of nine horses from the older male dirt division. The 1 1/8-mile Foster is part of the Breeders’ Cup challenge series, providing the winner with a spot in the Classic at Del Mar on Nov. 2.

Gun Runner, who won the Stephen Foster in 2017, is the sire of two horses in this year’s field. The Foster includes the first-place finishers from the recent Pimlico Special (G3), Alysheba (G2) and Oaklawn Handicap (G2).

Here is a full-field analysis for the Stephen Foster with morning line odds from the Horse Racing Nation staff. The race is scheduled for 6:03 p.m. EDT and is carded as race 11 of 12.

1. Pyrenees, 8-1. Into Mischief – Cherie DeVaux / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 8: 4-1-1 – $321,716. Pyrenees won all three of his starts this year and four in a row overall, moving through allowance conditions at Fair Grounds and then Keeneland. He became a stakes winner in the Pimlico Special (G3) with a stalking trip on Preakness weekend. Trainer Cherie DeVaux is winning at a 26 percent clip at the current Churchill meeting. Win contender.

2. First Mission, 9-5. Street Sense – Brad Cox / Florent Geroux – 8: 5-2-0 – $1,273,020. Only once did First Mission not win or place in his eight-race career that began in February 2023. In January, he had his one poor performance in the Pegasus World Cup (G1). Since then, he took the Essex (G3) by five lengths at Oaklawn and the Alysheba (G2) at Churchill. Win contender.

3. Happy American, 30-1. Runhappy – Neil Pessin / Corie Lanerie – 29: 5-1-8 – $655,566. Happy American has not won a race since January 2023 in the Louisiana Stakes (G3). Since then he ran in a series of graded stakes, including a third in last year’s Foster. In May, Happy American was third in an allowance at Churchill. Toss.

4. Disarm, 4-1. Gun Runner – Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario – 10: 3-3-2 – $1,077,120. Disarm had a noteworthy 3-year-old campaign with a victory in the Matt Winn (G3) and top-three finishes in big races such as the Travers (G1), Louisiana Derby (G2). In addition, Disarm was fourth in the Jim Dandy (G2) and the Kentucky Derby. He prepped for the Foster with a front-end allowance score. Use underneath.

5. Dreamlike, 8-1. Gun Runner – Todd Pletcher / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 9: 1-4-2 – $457,625. Although Dreamlike has only a maiden victory to his credit, he hit the board in three important stakes, running third in the Blame (G3) four weeks ago, second in the Pennsylvania Derby (G1) and third in the Wood Memorial (G2). Blinkers, which he wore three times last year, will go back on. Regular rider Irad Ortiz will stay on board. Live long shot.

6. Classic Causeway, 30-1. Giant’s Causeway – Kenny McPeek / Julien Leparoux – 22: 4-3-4 – $1,507,986. The unusual career of Classic Causeway continues as he shows up in the Foster as a supplemental nomination. Although he has $1.5 million in earnings, he last won a race in July 2022 in the Belmont Derby (G1) on the turf. He ran in only graded stakes last year, including three starts in Great Britain. As a 5-year-old, Classic Causeway was second in the Temperence Hill at Oaklawn, fifth in an overnight stakes at Churchill and fourth in an allowance last month. Toss.

7. Kingsbarns, 5-1. Uncle Mo – Todd Pletcher / Luis Saez – 8: 5-2-0 – $957,800. Kingsbarns is yet another runner in the Stephen Foster who rarely runs a bad race. This year as a 4-year-old, he won an allowance at Gulfstream and the Ben Ali (G3) and was second in the Pimlico Special after having the lead. Last year, he was 14th in the Kentucky Derby after winning the Louisiana Derby (G2). Win Contender.

8. Steal Sunshine, 20-1. Constitution – Bobby Dibona / Paco Lopez – 22: 6-2-6 – $541,420. Steal Sunshine was fourth in the Alysheba and third in the Ghostzapper (G3) after winning the Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) by a nose. Overall, he finished in the top three in graded stakes five times. Toss.

9. Skippylongstocking, 7-2. Exaggerator – Saffie Joseph Jr. / Jose Ortiz – 23: 8-2-4 – $2,291,685. Skippylongstocking leads this Grade 1 field with eight victories in his career and more than $2.2 million in earnings. He won the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and the Challenger (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs with pace-pressing efforts after getting pulled up in the Pegasus World Cup. He was third in the 2023 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile behind Cody’s Wish and National Treasure. Top choice.

Summary: Pyrenees, First Mission and Skippylongstocking should be considered serious win contenders based on their recent victories in graded stakes races. Realistically, only three of the horses can be completely discounted.

First Mission deserves to be the morning-line favorite, will be heavily bet and is the horse to beat. But with the prospect of better odds at post time, Skippylongstocking will be the top choice.