State Of The Avalanche; Lineup Projections After Quiet Off-Season

Yes, there are technically still two months left in the off-season for the Colorado Avalanche and the rest of the NHL, but most of the work has already been completed.

After yesterday’s trade to acquire Kevin Mandolese, the Avalanche have just one restricted free agent to sign. Beyond that, all their internal work is complete. There are one or two intriguing free agent options left on the open market, but for the most part, it’s slim pickings. What you see right now is likely what you’re going to get when training camp opens.

This team, if nothing else changes, will look a little different compared to the one we saw bow out in the second round to the Dallas Stars.

Key Arrivals

“Key” might not be the best word to describe some of the additions the Avalanche made this summer, because the organization really just added around the edges of the lineup. The additions you’ll see to the lineup are really just depth guys, unless you want to count a certain Swedish Captain who may or may not come back, but we’ll get to that.

Calvin de Haan was the first newcomer signed, and as of today, is probably the one newcomer we can pencil in for opening night. That’s assuming he’s healthy, which has always been an issue for him in his career. He’s a steady bottom-pair defenseman who will likely see a lot of time on the penalty kill.

His defensive partner on opening night might just be Erik Brannstrom, who Ottawa decided not to qualify in June. Still just 24 years old, the former first rounder has shown steady improvement defensively the last two seasons and can play both sides.

The Avalanche raided the Ottawa Senators this summer, as the other player you can likely pencil into the lineup will be Parker Kelly. He’s not a center, which the team still needs, but he’s a physical player who can kill penalties.

Is this where we put the Captain? Gabriel Landeskog is expected to return at some point during the season, but when? That part is still very much up in the air. It could be opening night, but that would be a genuine surprise. Having not played an NHL game for over two years, no one really knows what he’s going to look like when he does hit the ice for game action again, so he’s a real wild card.

Key Departures

Chris MacFarland made big changes at the trade deadline back in March, adding Casey Mittelstadt, Sean Walker, Brandon Duhaime, and Yakov Trenin to the lineup for the playoff run. He probably knew he couldn’t keep most of them when their contracts expired, and he was correct. Mittelstadt, who was the most important addition, will be the only one returning.

Sean Walker signed one of the more reasonable long-term contracts handed out this summer, but it was still too expensive for the Avalanche to take on. He’s headed to Carolina for the next five years. Yakov Trenin got paid in a big way by the Minnesota Wild, while Brandon Duhaime got a nice contract out in Washington.

So, if we’re talking about departures, is there where we bring up Valeri Nichushkin? To the best of our knowledge, he will be eligible to return on Nov. 13 of this year. When does he actually get reinstated? That’s the real question. He’s been seen on social media in both Russia and Italy, and is expected to be playing in a rec league over in his home country this month while still being in stage three of the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program.

I don’t think many in the organization are happy with him right now, but will that subside come November? Will he be welcomed back into that locker room? I’m of the belief he’s played his last game with the Avalanche, but they might have no choice but to welcome him back when he gets reinstated.

Prospect Pipeline

Is this the year some youth gets integrated into the lineup? Last year, there wasn’t any room for youth to crack the lineup when the season started. This year, there should be opportunities.

The two obvious ones should and likely will get opportunities are Nikolai Kovalenko and Calum Ritchie. Kovalenko turns 25 in October and has spent the last six years playing in the KHL. He’s ready for an opportunity and should be in the NHL, but where does he fit in the lineup?

I’d be surprised if Ritchie spent the whole season in the NHL, but at the very least, he should get a taste of what the league has to offer.  He was dominant in the OHL last year, was the most talented player at development camp (as expected), and was rewarded with an entry-level deal. He’ll get opportunities in training camp to show he belongs.

Sam Malinski has the inside track for a spot on the opening night roster, as he’ll be 26 and my understanding is that he’s now waiver eligible. He and Brannstrom will battle it out for that final spot on the blueline. Other guys who could see games in the NHL are Jean-Luc Foudy, Sean Behrens, Ondrej Pavel, and Oskar Olausson.

Team Needs

A fourth line center stands out when you look at the current roster of the Avalanche. Chris Wagner could be that guy, but he’s been in the AHL for a few years now. There’s also a need for a middle six winger, but if a Landeskog or Nichushkin does come back, that changes things quite a bit. Size will be lacking on the blueline, but that might have to be something addressed at a later date.

Projected Opening Night Lineup

Forwards

Jonathan Drouin – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen

Artturi Lehkonen – Casey Mittelstadt – Nikolai Kovalenko

Miles Wood – Ross Colton – Logan O’Connor

Parker Kelly – Chris Wagner – Joel Kiviranta

Defense

Devon Toews – Cale Makar

Sam Girard – Josh Manson

Calvin de Haan – Erik Brannstrom

Sam Malinski

Goalies

Alexandar Georgiev

Justus Annunen

This is my best guess at what we see at opening night but some of the unknowns could change things. If Landeskog is healthy on opening night, he’s going to be in that lineup, and they could still add a forward before opening night.

I’ve got Kovalenko in the top six to start out, but that’s far from a guarantee. When I look at the top six without Landeskog or Nichushkin, it looks a little soft. Kovalenko is a skilled guy who has played big minutes in the KHL and isn’t afraid to throw his body around, even if he’s on the smaller side. I could easily see he and O’Connor swapping, but I wanted to keep that third line together because LOC was the guy that made that line so deadly last year.

I wanted to find a way to get Calum Ritchie into this lineup, but I didn’t want to stick him on the fourth line. If there was a better fourth line center option, I’d put Ritchie on the third line and move Wood down to start the year. I could see the Avalanche searching for a 4C on the waiver wire before the regular season starts.

The defense is relatively cut and dry. As previously mentioned, Malinski and Brannstrom will battle it out for that sixth spot, but I think Brannstrom is the better player (at the moment), so I’ve got him there.

This lineup is a step back compared to what we saw at the end of the season, but don’t underestimate how important it is for the Avalanche to have a legit 2C for a full season. Casey Mittelstadt has been a remarkably productive 5-on-5 player for the last two seasons, and I don’t expect that to change. Will his presence allow Jared Bednar to lighten the minutes for Nathan MacKinnon during the regular season? That’ll be something to keep an eye on next year.

In net, it’s Georgiev’s net, but if Annunen can play like he did at the end of last season, the Avalanche shouldn’t have to send send Georgiev out to start 60+ games again.