Rosenthal: The last-place Blue Jays are an underperforming mess. Now what do they do?

Back in December, during their surprising pursuits of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto, we posed the question: What has gotten into the Toronto Blue Jays? Six months later, with no Ohtani, no Soto and a 15-game deficit in the American League East, the question for Toronto becomes: Now what?

The Jays look like certain sellers, but almost certainly will wait as long as possible to choose a direction. The Houston Astros, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, and Boston Red Sox are among the clubs that seemingly have turned around their seasons. Jays officials, operating with a franchise-record $225 million payroll, want to give their underperforming roster every chance to do the same.

At the moment, such a reversal is difficult to imagine. The Jays entered Wednesday ranked 22nd in the majors in ERA and 26th in runs per game. And it’s not as if they’ve been unlucky. Their projected won-loss record, based on run differential, was actually one game worse than their actual 36-43 mark.

So, if the “now what?” question is not yet appropriate, it soon will be, with the trade deadline five weeks away. And if the Jays turn out to be sellers, the questions will only multiply. Which players will they purge? How quickly can they retool? And what will the concession of failure mean for the futures of team president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins?

Last October, after the controversial removal of José Berríos from a shutout in the fourth inning of an elimination game, Shapiro defended Atkins, telling reporters, “When evaluating, you’re not evaluating on a series or even a season, and in Ross’s case, the body of work to me is undeniable.”

Shapiro also said, “We need to get better. Ross needs to get better, but he’s done a good job and put us in a good position next year to be a very good team.” Well, the biggest acquisitions of the no-Ohtani, no-Soto offseason were infielder Isiah Kiner-Falefa and designated hitter Justin Turner. And the free-agent departures included third baseman Matt Chapman and right-hander Jordan Hicks.

The Jays were coming off their third playoff appearance in four years under Shapiro and Atkins, both of whom arrived in 2015. Their tenure has included a number of successful moves, including trades for Berríos, Chapman and Robbie Ray and signings of Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi. But their over-correction for defense after the 2022 season, when they parted with veteran outfielders Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. along with top young catcher Gabriel Moreno, continues to haunt this team.

Hernández and Gurriel were not just valuable hitters, but part of the team’s soul. True, the Jays needed a greater left-handed presence, and the trade of Gurriel and Moreno for Daulton Varsho helped accomplish that. But the team’s lack of run production has become such an issue, management sacrificed defense for offense by installing Spencer Horwitz at second and Davis Schneider in left.

Shapiro is signed through 2025, Atkins through ’26. The Rogers Communications ownership is notably detached from the team’s operations. But if this season ends badly, it will be difficult for Shapiro to keep claiming Atkins’ body of work is “undeniable.” And if the Jays are likely to dismiss Atkins in October, why would they let him oversee their deadline maneuverings in July?

Maybe because Shapiro and Atkins are so closely connected, and because Shapiro remains heavily involved in decision-making. But considering the disenchantment of the fanbase and the insufficient returns on investments, Shapiro, too, could be in jeopardy. Payroll is part of it. The fading George Springer’s six-year, $150 million deal through 2026 looks increasingly problematic. But the Jays also raised ticket prices to help finance a $300 million renovation of Rogers Centre, and spent $100 million on a new player development complex in Dunedin, Fla.

Ah, but we’re getting ahead of ourselves. The first question for the Jays, if they indeed sell, will be whether they simply part with their potential free agents, most notably left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, reliever Yimi García and catcher Danny Jansen, and then try to win with the bulk of the current group in 2025.

The current group, mind you, does not warrant such an endorsement. A good number of Jays fans have seen enough. But Shapiro and Atkins could argue that they want to take their best shot in their final season with first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette under club control.

A significant push during the offseason would be necessary. Guerrero and Bichette likely would leave after 2025 for nothing more than draft picks. But by not selling, the Jays could avoid attendance cratering — the average home crowd is down more than 4,000 this season, from 37,307 to 33,203. And Shapiro and Atkins could perhaps buy themselves more time.

The problem with such a plan, of course, is that the Jays might crash in 2026. In February, The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked their farm system 20th in the majors. Since then, top pitching prospect Ricky Tiedemann missed two months with ulnar nerve inflammation in his left elbow. Another top pitching prospect, lefty Brandon Barriera, underwent a combination Tommy John surgery and internal brace procedure. And top hitting prospect Orelvis Martinez was suspended 80 games after testing positive for a performance-enhancing drug.

The state of the farm system, combined with the struggles of the major-league club, offers a compelling reason for the Jays to retool, if not outright rebuild. Guerrero and Bichette are not going to sign extensions if they haven’t by now. By making them available for two pennant races, the Jays could extract better returns than if they waited until the offseason or next trade deadline.

Guerrero, who entered Wednesday with an .882 OPS since May 1 and home runs in three of his past five games, would be perhaps the most attractive slugger available if the Mets do not trade Pete Alonso. Bichette has slumped all season and recently missed time with a right calf strain. But the Dodgers, in particular, might view him as a prime change-of-scenery candidate.

If Shapiro and Atkins make their two stars available, they then will need to decide: Do we want prospects with the most upside, or near major-league ready talent that would accelerate the team’s return to contention? And if they become open to such trades, why stop with Guerrero and Bichette? In a market starved for starting pitching, why not listen on Bassitt, who is signed through 2025, and even Gausman, who is signed through ’26?

The Jays under Shapiro and Atkins have been buyers in recent years, not sellers. But in 2017, they turned Francisco Liriano into Hernández and Nori Aoki. In 2019 they turned Marcus Stroman into Anthony Kay and Simeon Woods Richardson, the latter of which they later traded for Berríos.

The 2018 deadline was more of a wash. The Jays moved six players and none of the 10 they acquired made a significant impact. That’s the nature of these deals. Some succeed, some don’t. But if the Jays do not get hot quickly, it would behoove Shapiro and Atkins to consider anything and everything. Or risk rolling out another uninspired product in 2025.

(Photo of Bo Bichette reacting to a strikeout: Kavin Mistry / Getty Images)