Ron Holland’s NBA Draft stock shouldn’t be defined by G League losing

Duncanville High School head coach David Peavy stood outside the locker room after the 2023 McDonald’s All-American Game ready to congratulate his star player on the symbolic close to an incredible high school career. When Ron Holland finally exited, Peavy saw something he didn’t expect. Holland was devastated to the point of nearly being in tears.

Holland was upset because his West team had lost the game on the final possession after missing a shot at the buzzer.

“I’m like, ‘this is an All-Star Game, bro,’” Peavy recalled during an interview with SB Nation. “And he was like, ‘coach, I don’t lose.’”

All Holland ever did was win at the high school level coming out of Dallas. Duncanville was the best team in Texas during Holland’s freshman year before the pandemic canceled the state tournament as the team was riding the bus to a playoff game. In his sophomore season, Duncanville went 28-1 and won a 6A Texas state championship. The next year, Anthony Black (now a guard for the Orlando Magic) transferred in, and Duncanville went 33-1, again winning the title. Shortly after, the state’s athletic governing body stripped the championship because it deemed Black was ineligible.

Duncanville’s vacated title and playoff ban the next year became headline news. The program responded by playing a national schedule, finishing 29-1, and claiming a mythical national championship with Holland as their senior leader.

Along the way, Holland also won two gold medals with USA Basketball. He was the leading scorer for Team USA at the 2021 FIBA Americas U16 Championship, and then played a starring role on the 2022 FIBA U17 Men’s World Cup team.

Holland was pegged as the top recruit in his class by some outlets, and projected as an early candidate to go No. 1 overall in the 2024 NBA Draft. There was a lot to like about his game: pro size, athletic slashing, defensive playmaking, and especially a non-stop motor. But more than anything, Holland was a highly touted prospect because he was labeled as a winner.

A year later, the narrative has completely flipped. After one season with the G League Ignite, Holland is suddenly a prospect defined by losing.

The Ignite finished 6-44 on the year. They were a dreadful watch, placing dead-last in both offensive and defensive efficiency in a performance so embarrassing the NBA decided to shut down the program permanently at the end of the season. As the losses piled up, Holland’s pro stock has apparently plummeted, with the latest rumors stating he could potentially slip out of the lottery.

“In high school I feel like I was just playing at 100 percent and running over guys,” Holland told SB Nation at the NBA Draft Combine in May. “I definitely learned how to deal with it with the Ignite playing against bigger and smarter defenders.”

Holland has more or less been the same player this entire time. The strengths of his game that were once said to directly correlate with winning are now being discounted as a result of the weaknesses that were more exposed against grown men for the first time during the Ignite’s season. Going against pros as an 18-year-old isn’t easy, and the jump to the NBA will be even more daunting for one of the youngest players in this draft class.

Who’s the real Ron Holland? To find the answer, you need to dig deeper than his six months in the G League.

Peavy knew Holland was talented enough to play on a loaded Duncanville team from the minute he enrolled in school. What he learned quickly is that he wasn’t mature enough to handle real minutes.

“Ron probably got kicked out of practice more than anybody I’ve ever coached,” Peavy told SB Nation. “He loved working out, but he didn’t love practice.”

“The monotony of doing shell drills, getting on the line running, you know, stuff that nobody likes,” Peavy said. “Ron wasn’t mature enough to understand, hey man, this is going to get you better. You just have to do it.”

Duncanville always had so much talent on the roster that Peavy said he could teach Holland a lesson with playing time early in his career for his poor practice habits. The 2020 team in Holland’s freshman year was led by Micah Peavy, David’s son, who has enjoyed a productive four-year career for TCU. Zhuric Phelps was the team leader during his sophomore year before going on to a standout college career at SMU. Black transferred in as a junior, and Arizona forward K.J. Lewis joined as a senior.

During Holland’s four years in high school, Duncanville went 119-8, with tons of banners to show for it. That doesn’t mean coaching Holland was always easy.

“He would have one good day, then he would have two bad days at practice,” Peavy said. “By his sophomore year, he was having one good day, one bad day. Eventually I realized he could play through his mistakes, because talent-wise, we needed him.”

Holland’s national ascent truly started during his sophomore year. After being a starter on Duncanville’s state title team, he played a starring role in helping take Drive Nation to the U16 championship game on Nike’s EYBL circuit. That’s when USA Basketball came calling. Holland traveled to Mexico for the 2021 FIBA Americas U16 Championship, and immediately emerged as the best player on the team. He led the tournament in scoring by averaging 19 points across six games, and finished third among all players in rebounding, fourth in steals, and sixth in blocks.

When Holland returned to Duncanville, Peavy saw newfound leadership ability and more “alpha” in his star wing. He would still frustrate his head coach, but it was impossible to argue with the results. Duncanville may have been the best high school team in the country, and Holland was making winning plays all over the floor.

“He just doesn’t lose,” Peavy said. “I don’t know how else to say it. It would drive me crazy sometimes, but he always found a way to figure it out.”

Duncanville was winning big at every opportunity, going 62-2 during Holland’s junior and senior years. Even against national competition, Holland was simply too physical and too tenacious for other teams to contain. USA Basketball extended another invitation to play in the 2022 FIBA U17 World Cup in Spain, where it would claim another gold medal. Cooper Flagg, the likely first pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, led the team in the tournament’s efficiency metric. Holland was second.

Sharman White, who coached Holland to both gold medals with USA Basketball, never had any issues with Holland at practice or otherwise. He viewed him as an ultimate team player.

“He was a leader in both years,” White told SB Nation. “He did everything we asked him to do. He’s a competitor so, you know, you might see him fired up a little bit, but it wasn’t nothing out of line out. He’s always picking up his teammates.”

As a high school player, Holland was viewed as a Swiss army knife. He was rarely the most skilled offensive player on the floor, but his combination of athleticism, hustle, and intangibles consistently found a way to make a winning impact. White and Peavy both recalled sequences where Holland would get a block on one end, run the floor for a dunk, and then bust his ass down the court for another block. Best of all, Holland was always at the top of his game in the biggest moments.

“There were several times where I was like, there’s no way we’re going to win this game,” Peavy said. “Like we’re down 10 with two minutes to go and then he hits a pair of threes when he hadn’t hit a three in two games. I’m screaming ‘no, no, no.’ And when the shot goes in, he blows me a kiss on the way down. Then he gets a rebound, puts in it, and gets a stop on the other end. The buzzer goes off and he smacks me on the ass and like, ‘hey coach, I got you.’”

“I’m like God dang, the kid just doesn’t lose. He just don’t lose.”

“He didn’t always practice hard,” Peavy said. “But when the lights were on, when the moment came and it was time to go get it, forget it. You’re not gonna beat him for a loose ball.”

Photo by David Becker/NBAE via Getty Images

Holland’s original plan was to stay home for college. At the start of his senior year, he committed to the Texas Longhorns.

”I have done a lot of winning in the state of Texas,” Holland told ESPN. “And plan to continue those winning ways at The University of Texas with coach Beard and his staff.”

Two months later, Texas fired head coach Chris Beard after domestic abuse allegations. Texas went to the Elite Eight under interim coach Rodney Terry, but Holland still eventually decided to reopen his recruitment. When he opted to go the G League Ignite route, Peavy told him he probably wasn’t going to win many games.

“I said, ‘Ron, how are you gonna handle losing?’ And then I also thought, you know what, this might be good for him. It’s something else he’s gonna have to figure out.”

When Holland arrived in Las Vegas to play for his new G League team, ESPN wrote that this was the most talent the Ignite had ever had in their four-year existence. You could see the vision: Holland and Matas Buzelis were projected 1-2 in our early 2024 NBA mock draft as a pair of tall wings whose games seemingly complemented each other well. There was also a classic stretch four in Tyler Smith, a decorated playmaking big man in Izan Almansa, and some intriguing long-term talents in Babacar Sane, Dink Pate, and Thierry Darlan.

Instead, the Ignite were a disaster from the jump. The team had poor point guard play, awful spacing, and looked totally unconnected on both ends of the floor. Instead of playing a role off older and wiser teammates like he did for the majority of his prep career, Holland was suddenly asked to create almost everything himself. His 27.6 usage rate led the Ignite and is one of the highest figures in this entire draft class. Tasked with a heavy creation burden for the first time in his life, Holland put up impressive numbers but struggled to do so efficiently.

In 29 games, Holland averaged 19.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.4 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game. That seems great until you dive beneath the surface.

Holland shot the ball horribly from the outside, going 23-of-97 (23.7 percent) from three-point range on the season. He had a negative assist-to-turnover ratio, finishing with 93 turnovers to 90 assists. His handle looked weak in tight spaces, he often got tunnel vision as a scorer on drives to the rim, and his defense suffered from a lack of attentiveness at times even if he was always playing hard.

The Ignite also just got smoked when Holland was on the court. He posted a -14.4 net-rating. His tape is filled with air balls, predetermined decision-making, and ambitious gambles gone awry.

Of course, the Ignite were never built to win with 18-year-olds going against grown men. Holland and his teammates were there to develop for the NBA. While the numbers might seem disappointing, there were also plenty of flashes to get excited about.

“If anyone hears the name Ron Holland, the word energy has always been around me since I was born,” Holland told reporters at the NBA Draft combine. “I feel like energy gets people going. If you’re able to get your teammates going, and you have a really good team around you, it’s hard to be beat.”

Playing with a high motor is a skill, and Holland has it in spades. Even as one of the youngest players in the G League, Holland’s motor pops all over the tape.

Holland was a monster at generating steals all season long. He had 69 steals in 29 games, good for 2.4 per game, which ranked third in the G League among anyone who played at least 15 games. The two players ahead of him, Shaq Harrison and Tre Mann, are both veterans with hundreds of NBA games under their belt. For Holland to be that good at generating takeaways at such a young age is remarkable.

Holland is rarely totally out of a play because he consistently makes multiple efforts. His burst to the ball, sharp hands, and quick leaping give him tremendous recovery ability.

If the ball is loose, Holland is going to get it. When he hits the open floor, good luck stopping him.

Holland got nearly 26 percent of his offense in transition this year, and scored well in those opportunities with 1.064 points per possession and 66.4 percent true shooting, according to Synergy Sports. He has breakaway speed to create separation from his opponents on the break with the body control, touch, and hang time to finish in close.

Yes, that’s eight-year NBA veteran Kenneth Faried who Holland is Euro-stepping around in the first clip. He wouldn’t have seen that by playing at Texas.

It’s much easier to score in transition than against a set defense in the NBA. Holland’s ability to force transition opportunities with his defense and rebounding, and finish them with his speed and touch, is a large part of what makes him a tantalizing prospect. His game isn’t solely reliant on getting up-and-down, though.

Holland has a natural ability to generate paint touches with the ball in his hands against a set defense. He has a wicked first step, the suddenness to change direction mid-drive, and comfort finishing with his off (left) hand. While he still needs to add significant strength to his frame, he’s already good at playing through contact by delivering the first blow to the defender. Here’s a compilation of Holland driving downhill:

Holland’s rim pressure will be a signature part of his game if he reaches his ceiling. Of course, that’s going to take time for a player who will still be 18 years old on draft day. In the meantime, Holland’s best hope for earning minutes comes back to his motor and his ability to find opportunistic scoring chances when a play isn’t run for him.

Holland has a gift for high-pointing the ball in the air. He doesn’t wait for a loose ball or rebound to come to him, he sucks it up like Pac-Man devouring a yellow dot. He’s able to turn those recoveries into grab-and-go opportunities before the defense gets set. He’s going to be a lob threat if he plays with a high-level passer, and he has the chance to develop into a mismatch scorer after scramble plays and on switches.

For all of his talent, Holland’s lack of a jump shot is bordering on a fatal flaw for his pro stock. He shot only 27 percent on “open” three-pointers, and had “bad misses” on nearly 20 percent of his attempts. In a league that just saw its first true five-out champion, drafting such a bad shooter will be a non-starter for some teams. Of course, you don’t have to dig that far to find examples of other young guards and wings who shot the ball poorly as an 18-year-old before eventually turning into real three-point threats.

If a team believes it can fix Holland’s shot, it’s easy to see a world where he has as much upside as any player in this class.

As Holland gets ready to jump to the highest level in the world, teams need to make their own assessments on if he’s the do-everything, ultimate winner he showed at the prep level, or the overmatched teen with a broken jumper he looked like for the Ignite. Here’s how Holland characterizes his own value to NBA teams.

“I describe my game as a high-level energy guy that is very versatile,” Holland said at the draft combine. “I can guard 1-5 and play 1-4. I can do anything my coach needs me to do. I feel like that’s one of the best parts about my game.”

Peavy added a little more color.

“Ron’s got a little crazy in him to the point where he just, he has no care for his well being,” Peavy said. “If he has to jump and get a rebound, but it means he’s going to smack his head against the backboard and have a concussion, he’ll do it.”

There are a few realities that Holland will have to contend with in the NBA. He’ll be one of the five youngest players in the NBA next season. He won’t be guarded as a floor spacer by opposing defenses. While he measured well at the combine — 6’6.5 barefoot (call it 6’8 in shoes) with a 6’10.75 wingspan at 196.8 pounds — his style of play is closer to a four man and his size is closer to an ideal three. He’ll likely need at least a couple of years in the weight room before he’ll be able to leverage his strength against pros.

Holland’s role early in his NBA career will likely look a lot closer to his Duncanville days than his year with the Ignite. No team will be tasking him with shot creation as a rookie. Instead, he’ll be able to go all-out on defense, crash the glass, get out in transition, and try to get to the rim on offense when someone else creates an advantage for him. Slipping in the draft ultimately might not be the worst thing for Holland. As a high pick, he’d go to a bad team expecting to be some sort of savior. If he falls, he’ll go to a better team with less pressure to contribute right away.

Holland might have an uphill climb to be an NBA contributor with a bad jump shot, but Peavy’s words about his former player still ring true. Even in seemingly unwinnable situations, Holland has a tendency to find a way to pull through. That’s a skill teams shouldn’t bet against.