Road to the Breeders’ Cup Picks – Stephen Foster Stakes

It’s time to start thinking about the Breeders’ Cup odds as Churchill Downs gets set to host the first “Win & You’re In” Event for the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic — the Stephen Foster Stakes — this Saturday.

Going as Race 11 on an stakes-laden 12-race program, the Stephen Foster pits a field of nine at 1 1/8-miles on the main oval. I’ll see if program favorites First Mission and Skippylongstocking are beatable in my free betting picks for the race.

Stephen Foster Stakes odds, prediction and best bet

• Race: Churchill Downs Race 11
• Post time: 6:03 p.m. ET
• TV: FanDuel TV

Odds as of 6-27-2024.

No. 9 Skippylongstocking (5-2) shook off his no-show in the Pegasus World Cup earlier this year by posting two straight graded-stakes victories. The field he beat in the Grade III Challenger might not have been much to write home about, but his Grade II Oaklawn Handicap score over next-out winner Highland Falls by two lengths was quite impressive.

Skippylongstocking will be reunited with Jose Ortiz and is working well for Saffie Joseph Jr. ahead of this start. He should work out an ideal stalking trip from this post.

No. 2 First Mission (6-5, morning-line favorite) has also won his last two starts by open lengths, but the fields he met in the Grade III Essex and Grade II Alysheba (on a sloppy track, no less) seemed weak. First Mission is capable of running as fast as Skippylongstocking on his best day but doesn’t always deliver those types of speed figures. I also think his loss on a fast Churchill course in the Grade I Clark to long shot Trademark last November gives cause for pause.

At 6-5, or possibly shorter with high-profile connections in jockey Florent Geroux and trainer Brad Cox in his corner, First Mission is not my first choice in the Stephen Foster but is must-use nonetheless.

No. 1 Pyrenees (12-1) looks live at a price in this race off his victory in the Grade III Pimlico Special over Kingsbarns. Pyrenees typically shows speed but laid back off a surprisingly slow pace last time out. He had every right to misfire but didn’t, beating a solid rival who had a better trip to make it four straight triumphs.

Pyrenees might be a touch too slow figure-wise, but he continues to improve and retains Brian Hernandez Jr., who certainly knows his way around this oval, for a trainer boasting a hot hand right now in Cherie DeVaux (26% at the meet).

Best bet: $6 exacta box 2/9, $4 exacta 9/1,2, $3 trifecta 2,9/2,9/1, $4 win 1 ($30)

Road to the Breeders’ Cup Classic

*denotes “Win & You’re In” race for Breeders’ Cup Classic

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