Ranking 1st-Round NFL Rookie QBs Most Likely to Have Biggest Early Impact

It’s not how a person starts but how they finish. Let’s reverse that line of thinking.

First-round quarterbacks are under the microscope long before they’re even drafted. Everything about those individuals is meticulously scrutinized to make sure they’re worth the investment. Once selected, the process goes into overdrive, particularly in today’s NFL.

Opportunities to slowly develop a quarterback typically don’t fall under the modern approach. Quarterback prospects tend to be more prepared to start earlier in their careers than they traditionally have been, while coaching staffs do far more today to build around their talents rather than shoehorning them into a specific system.

Still, certain individuals adjust quicker than others. With that in mind, tweaks to expectations should be based on what each of the six first-round quarterbacks can do at the onset of their rookie seasons, which won’t necessarily reflect what happens as the campaign or their careers progress.

Of those incoming signal-callers, certain options are more prepared for Week 1 than others, and their respective squads should benefit once the season officially begins.

Michael Penix Jr. is the easiest and obvious choice to not have any expectations whatsoever for the start of his career since the Atlanta Falcons signed veteran Kirk Cousins this offseason and general manager Terry Fontenot already provided the organization’s preferred blueprint.

“If [Penix] sits for four or five years, that’s a great problem to have because we’re doing so well at that position,” Fontenot told reporters after this year’s first round.

Cousins is the the Falcons’ starting quarterback. He’s going to be the Falcons starting quarterback for the foreseeable future. The only caveat to this conversation is the understanding that the 35-year-old veteran is coming off a ruptured Achilles tendon.

If Cousins experiences any setbacks or further injury, Penix would then see the field. Until that happens, this year’s eighth overall draft pick will be on the bench watching and learning, possibly for multiple seasons. He’ll do so by taking advantage of the situation.

“You gotta learn how to be a pro,” Penix said. “You don’t have school anymore, you don’t got to worry about that in your schedule. …You working. This is a job. It’s like you trying to perfect your job. You trying to be as good as you can. And now I got the time, I got the resources, the money, that’s a part of it too. You can have those resources. Get the best massage therapist, get the chefs and staff like that, so just learning how to become a pro.”

The New England Patriots could have traded back in this year’s draft or gone in another direction knowing that the roster is still a year or two away from competing. It didn’t. Instead, the front office saw the special traits in Drake Maye’s game that could lead to him being a top-10 quarterback if developed properly.

Despite being the third overall pick, Maye isn’t a slam dunk to start sooner rather than later.

The 6’4″, 223 gunslinger presents high, high upside with exceptional arm talent. At the same time, his processing and decision-making can be erratic.

“When it comes to processing, Maye is more good than bad,” Bleacher Report scout Derrik Klassen wrote, “but he’s not perfect. Maye does well to execute UNC’s relatively simple offense. He excels at playing on time, adhering to the structure of the play, and progressing all the way to his checkdowns if need be.”

Furthermore, the Patriots signed Jacoby Brissett this offseason. Brissett may not be a top-end starter, but he’s certainly good enough to steady the ship as the organization transitions away from head coach Bill Belichick after 24 years of stewardship.

Brissett understands he’s a bridge toward the future and his mentorship of Maye is important. The team is already seeing progress just after a few months.

“Every day he’s gotten better,” Brissett told reporters. “The good thing about it is, [he’s] not like, ‘Oh, I got it right now,’ not thinking about it. He’s just constantly trying to find ways to get better, making some nice throws out there and you’re seeing his progression come alive.”

Maye’s likely to start at some point in 2024, but he’s less likely to do so at the beginning of the campaign.

Variability is more of a factor with Minnesota Vikings rookie J.J. McCarthy than his previously listed classmates.

As of now, the plan is for Sam Darnold to be the Vikings’ Week 1 starting quarterback. As The Athletic’s Alex Lewis responded when asked about McCarthy’s timetable:

“Definitely not in Week 1. Probably not in the first quarter of the season. Potentially not even in the first half of the season.

“There is even a scenario in which he shouldn’t be expected to start at all this year.

“This is not a referendum on McCarthy’s talent or his minicamp performance—not in the slightest. It’s more a matter of the Vikings’ approach. When general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and coach Kevin O’Connell talked about team building years ago, before Minnesota hired them to lead its organization, the two men discussed quarterback development. O’Connell expressed his belief that time sitting can be valuable and can potentially even help bring about success.”

McCarthy is only 21 years old and the biggest knock on him coming out of the collegiate ranks is that Michigan employed a run-first scheme where the quarterback wasn’t asked to carry the offense.

However, poor play from Sam Darnold, coupled with expectations to win this fall, and growing trust in the rookie may be enough to shift the timeline to sooner rather than later.

“Yeah, 21 years old but a great young man,” linebacker Blake Cashman said during an interview on the Jim Rome Show. “He’s a leader. He is eager to learn. A lot of young guys, sometimes they can come in, be a little timid or shy. But he’s walking round the locker room, big smile on his face, shaking hands, getting to know everybody.”

The Chicago Bears made Caleb Williams the No. 1 overall pick. He’s already been named the team’s starting quarterback. He’s the favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, per Draft Kings. Williams has a good supporting cast around him and should put up significant numbers.

While everything previously stated is true, they don’t take into account the transition period that every rookie quarterback endures.

In Williams’ case, he’s an exceptional talent with unbelievable natural arm ability and creativity. At the same time, a couple of the smaller issues seen in his game, specifically decision-making and footwork, could take minute before he finds himself in a groove.

“Williams is a quality processor,” Klassen wrote in his scouting report, “but he sometimes gets in his own way. His affinity for the big play can mean he’ll pass up easier opportunities earlier in the down. Additionally, Williams tends to drop back square to the offensive line (which helps him stay on his toes and see). That can disrupt his timing on specific routes because he needs an extra step to gather himself. These are not fatal flaws, but he’ll need to improve upon them in the NFL.”

In the first three weeks, the Bears face the Tennessee Titans after they added L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie at cornerback, the rapidly improving Houston Texans and an Indianapolis Colts team that finished top five in sacks last season.

Interestingly, there’s also no veteran backup to help in Williams’ development, nor an overly successful offensive coordinator calling play (Shane Waldron’s offenses have never finished better than 13th overall).

Williams should be great, but he’s not an automatic to get out of the gates quickly. It’s possible. But a few elements may come into play where he should be playing better later in the year than earlier.

Jayden Daniels, whom the Washington Commanders selected No. 2 overall, has a natural advantage over everyone else on this list: His athleticism will make him an immediate threat no matter what.

Even if Daniels is a little sluggish learning the Commanders offense and getting himself into a rhythm as a passer, his legs can be a great equalizer until he establishes a true comfort level in all phases of the game.

“A five-year starter dating back to his days at Arizona State, Daniels’ superpower is his athleticism,” Klassen wrote. “He has home run speed and a ton of burst and flexibility to wiggle out of the pocket and around defenders in space. No other quarterback comes close to Daniels as a rushing threat and athlete in this class.”

As Pro Football Focus noted, Daniels posted the highest rushing grade, as well as the most rushing yardage, touchdowns, first downs and forced tackles of any quarterback at the FBS level over the last two seasons.

While the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has a clear advantage with one specific area of his game, he’s no slouch in the other. Daniels grew as a passer during each season on campus, culminating with 3,812 passing yards and 40 touchdown tosses as a fifth-year senior.

More importantly, the 23-year-old rookie holds a Power Five record with a career 1.6 percent turnover-worthy play rate, per PFF.

As long as Daniels doesn’t endure the same caliber of wicked hits he did at the collegiate level and protect his body a little better, he’s going to make plays early and often, either as a runner or passer.

The Denver Broncos’ Bo Nix was the last first-round quarterback selected yet first on this list. His standing may come across as oxymoronic, but multiple factors play into Nix’s favor.

Maturity and experience are the first two worth mentioning.

The 24-year-old Nix is literally the most experienced quarterback to ever leave the collegiate ranks. Thanks to the extra season of eligibility granted by the NCAA due to the COVID19 pandemic, Nix started a record 61 games between his two stops at Auburn and Oregon. He’s played for different coaching staffs and been asked to learn multiple systems.

So, the transition from the collegiate to the professional ranks may not be quite as burdensome for him as others.

“Good, he’s farther along than most,” head coach Sean Payton told reporters in May. “We’re talking about a player who has played 61 games. He’s extremely smart. He’s picked it up very quickly.”

Last week, NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero reported, “Early returns on Bo Nix’s development has been overwhelmingly positive… The way he’s ingratiated himself into the locker room, the way he’s ingratiated into that quarterback room. The way (offensive coordinator) Joe Lombardi says that Nix rarely makes the same mistake twice… nothing seems to be too big for Bo Nix, and they’ve been nothing but pleased with, so far, his early development there.”

The rookie’s pedigree should be noted as well. He’s the son of a former collegiate quarterback and outstanding high school coach. Bo Nix has been groomed to the play the position from Day 1.

This year’s 12th overall pick also gets to play in a system that fits his skill set. Nix set an FBS record last season with a 77.4 completion percentage. But the bulk of the Ducks offense was built around quick passes, half-field reads and simply playing in a timing attack.

“I think when you look at [the Broncos] offense, when you look at the scheme, [there are] a lot of really fun concepts that I’ve run in the past, a lot of fun things that I’ve been able to do and have success in,” Nix said after being drafted. “We were able to just talk over those and communicate those.”

Finally, Nix will learn from a coach in Sean Payton, who has a vision of what he wants from the position and has experienced significant success.

Maybe Nix isn’t the next Drew Brees. It would be unfair to even place those expectations on the incoming quarterback. However, Nix’s landing spot is the ideal setup for him to contribute at a relatively high level early in his career, even if he’s somewhat limited compared to the other options from this year’s rookie class.