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Racing betting tips: Friday June 7
1pt win Split Elevens in the 3.00 Brighton at 6/1 (William Hill) – min 11/2
1pt win Profitable Edge in the 4.08 Thirsk at 13/2 (General) – min 6/1
1pt win Royal Velvet in the 7.35 Goodwood at 11/4 (General)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
3.00 Brighton
There are reasons to be against the market leaders in this lowly 0-50 contest, with Kontratiev Wave scrambling home in a similar event last time when aided by the claim of the excellent Jack Doughty.
Neil Callan is hardly a negative here, but he was breaking a 22-run losing streak here and I doubt he could have won last time with an extra 5lb on his back.
He’s not an obvious type to follow up, even in the same grade. Villalobos is next in but has never won on turf and often looks half-hearted in a finish, so also makes limited appeal and while it’s easy enough to crab SPLIT ELEVENS on recent efforts, this C&D winner is priced attractively and can get back to winning ways aided by the excellent Saffie Osborne, who has a knack with tricky customers like John Butler’s six-year-old.
Split Elevens can spoil his chance at the stalls and did so here last time, but he’s got a decent record over a mile on turf, with a win and two places from just four runs, and his below-par effort last time allows him to drop to this level of competition for the first time in his career.
A six-time winner all told, he’s pretty prolific for all his quirks and his rider has a 25% record at Brighton, riding 18 winners from 73 rides at the track.
4.08 Thirsk
The high draws are expected to have the edge at Thirsk, particularly over the minimum trip, which used to produce the most remarkable draw bias in the country. It’s not quite so pronounced these days as when a group of punters used to clean up on tricast combinations in the 1980s and 1990s, but it’s still a benefit to be near the stands rail, with both Lotus Rose and PROFITABLE EDGE fitting the bill as speedy fillies with requisite high draws to take advantage.
Lotus Rose was a little disappointing at Ripon recently having made the frame twice earlier in the spring, and could well bounce back with the rail to help, but preference is for the classy Profitable Edge despite this race coming after an absence of eight months.
The daughter of Profitable ran really well on her debut for David & Nicola Barron after a longer absence last term before winning on her next start and she remains low mileage with just six handicap starts to date. Her most recent turf run came in a 0-90 contest at York and she takes a marked drop in class for her return, which is expected to show her in a positive light.
7.35 Goodwood
The card at Goodwood is restricted to apprentices, which is an initiative I’d like to see more of and this handicap gives the in-form William Knight a chance to boost his figures courtesy of the unexposed ROYAL VELVET, who shaped much better than the bare result in a warm handicap at Newmarket last time.
The daughter of Lightning Spear was forced to race widest of the group on the stands side of the track in that contest, with those who stayed closest to the stands rail clearly favoured, but she did make a big move into contention with a furlong to run before flattening out late on.
There’s no doubt in my mind that she was compromised by how far off the rail she had to race (got pushed progressively wider as the field spread out) and the quartet who formed a group towards the middle of the track all finished behind her.
She also looked like the mile stretched her at Newmarket, with two previous wins both over this 7f trip, and a return to shorter allied to a fair draw can see her back to winning ways for a stable which has had six wins and three seconds from its last 20 runners.
Preview posted 1002 BST on 07/06/24
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