Projecting the 2025 NFL draft, one year out: Miller’s early predictions for every Round 1 pick

The 2025 NFL draft is still more than nine months away, but I’m already digging into tape on the top prospects in the class, including a handful of potential franchise quarterbacks. And with NFL training camps on the horizon and the start of the 2024 college football season not far behind, I’m doing an early projection of all 32 first-round picks for next year’s draft.

Our draft order for this exercise comes from ESPN’s Football Power Index, which uses thousands of simulations to predict the 2024 NFL season. In turn, that gives us a 1-32 order, starting with the Patriots at No. 1. But would New England hang onto the top pick or trade it away to a QB-needy team? Spoiler: I projected two trades in this mock draft, including a deal involving the No. 1 selection.

Of course, a lot will change before teams are actually on the clock next April. Prospects will rise and fall on draft boards, and some of these players will ultimately return to school for another year. We have an entire season of game tape ahead of us — and I admittedly haven’t watched a ton on everyone just yet. So what follows is just an early look at what could happen based on what I’ve seen, what I’m hearing, what each team might need and what could make sense. Let’s jump in.

Note: Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk.

Projected trade: Giants come up to No. 1 overall

We might not have a generational talent like Caleb Williams in this class, but there are some really good quarterbacks. And given that the Patriots just used a 2024 top-three pick on Drake Maye, I’d bet they would be listening on trade offers if they were to have the top pick next year. I like the idea of the Giants moving up, and the trade package could look similar to what Carolina sent to Chicago in 2023, when the Panthers slid up to No. 1 from No. 9. I have the Giants dealing their No. 6 pick, a 2025 second-rounder, a 2026 first-rounder and a 2027 second-rounder to get this done.

Carson Beck, QB, Georgia*

The Giants threw 15 touchdown passes last season (fifth fewest in the league) and Daniel Jones is coming off a season-ending ACL injury, but the team is running it back this year. Veteran Drew Lock was added as a backup, but there still isn’t a long-term answer under center on this roster. So the front office might get aggressive in finding one. Beck — my QB1 in the class at the moment — is a steady pocket passer with a big arm and great processing speed. And he is primed for a breakout season after throwing 24 touchdown passes and completing 72.4% of his throws in his first season as a starter in 2023.

Projected trade: Raiders jump up the board for a QB

Despite picking at No. 13 this past April, Las Vegas missed out on the 2024 class’s top six quarterbacks. The Raiders might not want to chance it again in 2025, and I could see a scenario where they’d give the No. 8 pick, a 2026 first-rounder and a 2027 second-rounder to Carolina for the chance to get one of the top two signal-callers available. This, of course, would be assuming that Carolina would be willing to trade back and stick with Bryce Young.

Shedeur Sanders, QB, Colorado

The Raiders went 8-9 last season, and the late-season 5-4 surge under coach Antonio Pierce didn’t have much to do with the quarterback play. The team had 20 passing touchdowns to 18 interceptions, as rookie Aidan O’Connell replaced Jimmy Garoppolo for 11 games. O’Connell may prove his status in Year 2, but the early read on Las Vegas is that it needs a quarterback. Sanders is a legitimate Heisman contender if Colorado can string together some wins. His accuracy, toughness and poise would make him a rookie starter for the Raiders and give the offense some much-needed swagger. He threw 27 touchdown passes to three interceptions for the Buffaloes last year.

Will Johnson, CB, Michigan*

The Broncos could look at offensive tackle with Garett Bolles‘ contract set to expire after the 2024 season, but this is a team in “best player available” territory. Johnson’s tape from his first two seasons at Michigan is some of the best cornerback tape I’ve seen. The 6-foot-2 playmaker’s closest comparison as a college prospect is Pat Surtain II, whom he’d be lined up opposite in this scenario in Denver. Johnson has seven career interceptions, he is an active tackler, and he has the size and speed to erase receivers.

James Pearce Jr., Edge, Tennessee*

This is a prove-it season for quarterback Will Levis as a second-year starter, but the early returns were good enough that we can forget about quarterbacks at the top of the draft for now. Instead, the Titans could land my preseason No. 1 overall player — and an in-state prospect. At 6-foot-5 and 242 pounds, Pearce has special quickness around the edge, picking up 9.5 sacks last season. He also flashed his all-around game with a 52-yard pick-six last season. Pearce would be an instant boost opposite Harold Landry III.

Kelvin Banks Jr., OT, Texas*

If the draft were tomorrow, we’d be talking about left tackle and edge rusher as massive needs for the Commanders. That could change between now and April, but general manager Adam Peters could definitely address the blindside of the line; Washington has to protect quarterback Jayden Daniels after allowing 65 sacks last season (tied for second most). Banks is a prototypical left tackle with a powerful 324-pound frame, and the junior has allowed just two sacks over his two full seasons starting for the Longhorns.

Will Campbell, OT, LSU*

The Patriots ranked last in the NFL in pass block win rate last season (43.4%), and even after signing Chukwuma Okorafor and bringing back Mike Onwenu this offseason, addressing the offensive line next offseason is a must. Campbell is part of college football’s best tackle duo alongside LSU teammate Emery Jones Jr. He’s a two-year starter who didn’t allow a single sack and only 15 total pressures last season. He could be long-term protection for Drake Maye in this offense.

Mason Graham, DT, Michigan*

The Vikings made big additions in the 2024 first round, adding quarterback J.J. McCarthy and defensive end Dallas Turner. But the interior of the defensive line should get a big look next year, and Graham is a legitimate contender for the class’s top overall prospect. His stats won’t blow you away, thanks to Michigan’s defensive line rotation and assignments — he had three sacks in ’23 — but Graham’s explosion and power jump off the tape.

Luther Burden III, WR, Missouri*

In this scenario, the Panthers are able to move back and still land a playmaker, continuing to focus on building an offensive support system around Bryce Young after investing in guards Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt this offseason. Burden is the most explosive player in college football — he averaged 14.1 yards per catch and had 1,212 yards on 86 receptions last season — and brings a Deebo Samuel-like ability to make defenders miss post-catch. And he does it with legitimate 4.3 speed. Pairing Burden with Diontae Johnson and 2024 second-rounder Xavier Legette would give Young the type of wideouts he needs to excel.

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Luther Burden III makes great catch on 42-yard Missouri TD

Brady Cook throws a 42-yard touchdown pass to Luther Burden.

Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado*

Arizona is building a solid foundation, and the front office could realistically turn to a “best player available” approach next April. Hunter is a two-way star who logged 984 snaps last season, including 412 on offense and 572 on defense, and proved himself as a playmaker and elite cover man. His 57 receptions and five touchdowns over nine games made him an early Heisman candidate, and he added three interceptions and seven pass breakups on defense. There will be a debate about which side of the ball makes more sense for Hunter in the pros, but he is a throwback do-it-all football player that the Cardinals could deploy in a number of roles.

Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas*

The 2024 season will be crucial for the future of starting quarterback Derek Carr in New Orleans and perhaps provide a window into what the team has in rookie fifth-rounder Spencer Rattler. At this time, it doesn’t appear that either quarterback is the future here. Ewers has talent worthy of a first-overall pick heading into his third season as a starter at Texas. At 21 years old, he has to cut down on poor decisions during games, but his accuracy, mobility and arm strength are that of a future NFL starter. Ewers threw for 3,479 yards and 22 touchdown passes last season.

Tetairoa McMillan, WR, Arizona*

Seattle has one of the NFL’s best receiving corps, but it’s also a unit poised for a breakup. Tyler Lockett — who is entering his age-32 season — and DK Metcalf both have potential outs in their contracts after this coming season. Yes, second-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba will factor into the Seahawks’ future plans, but adding a true No. 1 receiver with size is a sneaky need. McMillan is massive at 6-foot-5 and 210 pounds, and his catch radius seems unlimited. He grabbed 90 passes for 1,402 yards and 10 touchdowns last season and is poised for another huge year with quarterback Noah Fifita returning.

Harold Perkins Jr., Edge, LSU*

Perkins was misused at linebacker last season, but he will move back to edge rusher in new defensive coordinator Blake Baker’s scheme this year. And we could see him use his great speed to eclipse his 13 career sacks this season alone. That might entice the Buccaneers, who are looking for a defensive end to break out and emerge as a true threat to opposing offenses. Veteran Shaquil Barrett is gone in free agency, and Tampa Bay’s 27.3% pressure rate ranked 24th in the league last season, so adding to this group could be a frontline need come next offseason.

Benjamin Morrison, CB, Notre Dame*

Cornerback and wide receiver were equally considered here, but the former seemed like the more pressing issue. Pittsburgh has Joey Porter Jr., Donte Jackson and Cameron Sutton there, but both Jackson and Sutton are short-term solutions; the Steelers really need a long-term, high-upside running mate for Porter. Morrison has big-time talent with nine career interceptions over two seasons of starting, and his 13 pass breakups in 2023 tied for eighth in the league.

Colston Loveland, TE, Michigan*

Who could resist the temptation to give Anthony Richardson more playmakers? Tight end remains one of the team’s few offensive question marks, and Loveland will be a top-10 player on my preseason board thanks to his ability as a receiver and expert run blocking. He caught 45 passes for four scores in the run-heavy Michigan offense last season, and the 6-5 junior has elite agility and speed in the open field as a receiving option.

Emery Jones Jr., OT, LSU*

The biggest weakness on the Jacksonville roster is at offensive tackle; Anton Harrison struggled on the right side as a rookie, and Cam Robinson was among the worst run-blocking left tackles in the league last season. But Jones — who starts at right tackle for the Tigers — has easy movement skills despite a 6-foot-6 and 315-pound frame, and I see the agility and balance to play left or right tackle in the pros. He has to clean up some timing issues, but his jump from freshman starter to sophomore standout (seven sacks allowed in Year 1 compared to four in Year 2) showed his potential.

Abdul Carter, Edge, Penn State

Cleveland has the league’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year in pass-rusher Myles Garrett, but there’s room to add more to the defensive line if a player like Carter is on the board. He’d slide in opposite Garrett — where veteran Za’Darius Smith is now — and boost an already elite unit. Carter has played off-ball linebacker in previous seasons, but he is moving into a full-time pass-rusher role in 2024 and has the juice to become a game-changing performer in that role. He has 11 sacks over two seasons.

Mykel Williams, Edge, Georgia*

General manager Ryan Poles has done a masterful job rebuilding the roster in Chicago, but the defensive line could use someone like Williams. The 6-foot-5, 265-pound junior has experience playing both inside and outside alignments, but his future is off the edge in the pros. His nine sacks in two seasons of rotational work point to the impact he can make with full-time reps in 2024. Williams’ combination of power and a sudden first-step could get him drafted in the top 10.

Evan Stewart, WR, Oregon*

A look at the Chargers’ depth chart right now shows question marks throughout the wide receiver room, where rookie Ladd McConkey will be asked to make an immediate contribution. Bolstering the group next offseason has to be a priority. Stewart is a former five-star recruit who is transferring to Oregon from Texas A&M, and incoming Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel figures to get him the ball early and often. Stewart (6-foot, 175 pounds) will compete with returning starter Tez Johnson for targets, but his burst and ability in the open field remind me of Jaylen Waddle during his time at Alabama.

Conner Weigman, QB, Texas A&M*

In the leadup to the 2024 draft, sources around the NFL told me often that the Rams were a sneaky team to keep an eye on with the quarterbacks. That didn’t ultimately play out, but I’m watching them closely in 2025 with Matthew Stafford now 36 years old. Weigman started just four games for A&M last year before a season-ending foot injury, but he flashed with eight touchdowns through the air and two more on the ground. He is more of a projection at this stage, but the talent is there for him to push into the Round 1 conversation — and potentially be L.A.’s QB of the future.

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Conner Weigman airs it out for 15-yard TD

Conner Weigman starts Texas A&M up early with a 15-yard touchdown pass to Noah Thomas for a touchdown.

Riley Leonard, QB, Notre Dame

Aaron Rodgers is turning 41 years old this season and will be coming off a torn Achilles. Sure, he might play several more seasons, but the Jets still have to think long-term about the roster. That means being prepared for his eventual exit. Leonard, a transfer from Duke, has been talked about by scouts for two seasons as a potential first-rounder. He played in seven games last season, missing time with ankle and toe injuries, and he struggled with just three touchdown passes and three interceptions. But the accuracy, mobility and decision-making he showed in 2022 have scouts believing he’s ready to break out in a new scheme.

Deone Walker, DT, Kentucky*

If you like Derrick Brown and Dexter Lawrence, you’re going to love Walker. The 6-foot-6, 348-pounder is an anchor in the middle of the Kentucky defensive line but also has the quickness and agility to get after the quarterback, notching 7.5 sacks in 2023. He would immediately plug the nose tackle hole in Miami, allowing speedy edge rushers Jaelan Phillips, Chop Robinson and Bradley Chubb more true one-on-one looks coming off the corner.

JT Tuimoloau, Edge, Ohio State

The Falcons finished 32nd in the league in pass rush win rate last season (30.9%) and then didn’t make any additions at outside linebacker until the third round of the draft. Tuimoloau, who displays some special footwork, is poised for a big season as a senior after posting five sacks last year. If he can string together more consistent performances in 2024, the 270-pound rusher could soar up the board.

Jonah Savaiinaea, G, Arizona

The Texans’ roster is very good, but the interior of both lines could still use work. Why not bring in one of the best right tackles in college football and kick him inside — a move scouts believe will push Savaiinaea into the first-round conversation — to help protect C.J. Stroud? The 6-foot-5 330-pounder locked down the right side for Arizona last season opposite first-rounder Jordan Morgan and stood out with his power in the run game. He would improve a Houston offensive line that finished 25th in the league in run block win rate (69.5%) last season.

Tyleik Williams, DT, Ohio State

Green Bay has a solid group of outside pass-rushers, but the interior could be up for a reset with Kenny Clark potentially hitting free agency next spring. Second-year player Devonte Wyatt showed promise last season, but there’s room for Williams here beside him if Clark leaves. Williams’ burst off the snap pops at 6-2 and 290 pounds. He had just three sacks last season but has flashed impressive pass-rush moves and Round 1 upside throughout his career.

Isaiah Bond, WR, Texas*

Tee Higgins may have signed his franchise-tag tender, but that doesn’t mean the Bengals have a long-term resolution yet for the talented WR2. The Bengals drafted Jermaine Burton to replace Tyler Boyd but could still have receiver high on the list of needs during the next draft. Bond, a transfer from Alabama, will fill the Xavier Worthy role in the Texas offense with his elite downfield speed. He averaged 13.9 yards per catch with four touchdowns last season, even as the Alabama offense struggled to find consistency in the pass game. And in Steve Sarkisian’s system, Bond has huge potential.

Nic Scourton, Edge, Texas A&M*

The Bills’ early top needs for 2025 look a lot like they did in 2024. But after selecting Keon Coleman to pair with Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel at receiver, GM Brandon Beane might opt to address the team’s pass rush, Buffalo’s other looming issue, next spring. Greg Rousseau is a talented player, but relying on Von Miller after this season isn’t a given. And Scourton posted 10 sacks at Purdue in 2023 and has the strength at 6-4 and 280 pounds to take over the SEC now that he’s at A&M. Turn on his tape against Michigan from last year, when he tallied two sacks, and you can see the impact he brings to a defense.

Quinshon Judkins, RB, Ohio State*

We’re back to running backs in the first round!? Judkins has elite talent, and Dallas ignored the position throughout this offseason beyond a reunion with 29-year-old Ezekiel Elliott. Judkins rushed for 2,725 yards and scored 31 rushing touchdowns over two years with Ole Miss before transferring to Ohio State. He will share carries with TreVeyon Henderson there, but the new Buckeye has Heisman-level talent and the burst and balance to be a great NFL running back.

Malaki Starks, S, Georgia

Make your jokes about Philadelphia drafting a defender from Georgia, but Starks would fill a big hole for the 2025 Eagles. He was a consensus first-team All-American in 2023 after grabbing three interceptions and making 52 tackles. And Starks is a do-it-all safety who has experience playing press coverage in the slot. You’re going to hear comparisons to Kyle Hamilton, and they’re warranted given his three-down impact.

Tyler Booker, G, Alabama*

The Ravens lost guards John Simpson and Kevin Zeitler to free agency and did very little to replace them, relying now on backup Ben Cleveland and former seventh-rounder Andrew Vorhees. Booker, meanwhile, is the best guard in the nation and would have likely been the top true guard in the 2024 draft class had he been eligible. He’s powerful and pancakes defensive linemen with ease. In 2023, he surrendered just four pressures and one sack over 13 starts at left guard. This is the type of no-nonsense interior blocker whom the Ravens covet.

Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State

I expect that general manager Brad Holmes will put some focus on receiver depth next offseason. The Lions are waiting to see what Jameson Williams can be in his third season after a series of setbacks due to injury and suspension, but the WR3 role is open for business. Egbuka is a savvy route runner with sure hands and toughness over the middle that would fit Detroit’s offense. The senior should bounce back from a down year in 2023 (41 catches for 515 yards and four TDs) and post numbers closer to his huge 2022 season (74 catches for 1,151 yards and 10 TDs).

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Egbuka spins into the end zone to put Ohio State on the board

Emeka Egbuka stays inbounds and spins into the end zone for a 15-yard Ohio State touchdown.

Anthony Belton, OT, NC State

Despite how well the Chiefs have put together and managed their roster, there’s a lack of answers at offensive tackle. The Kingsley Suamataia pick in the second round likely solves one tackle spot, potentially replacing right tackle Jawaan Taylor, who struggled last season. Belton, a two-year starter at left tackle, allowed one sack last year and wows with his easy movement at 6-5 and 345 pounds. If the Chiefs like Suamataia on the right side (where most scouts pegged him pre-draft), then Belton could fit well at left tackle to give Patrick Mahomes more time in the pocket.

Ajani Cornelius, OT, Oregon*

It was tempting to put Ohio State cornerback Denzel Burke or Ole Miss defensive tackle Walter Nolen here, but the 49ers have to address the offensive line after ignoring a problem area (again) in the 2024 offseason. In his first year as a starter, Cornelius locked down the right side of the Oregon line with zero sacks and four pressures allowed. At 6-5 and 308 pounds, he has the length and lateral agility to fit the 49ers’ zone-blocking scheme while also giving them a long-term plan for Trent Williams‘ eventual retirement.