Premarket: Global stocks wilt after U.S. bond yield jump as rate cut doubts resurface

U.S. government bond yields pushed to a near four-week peak, lifting their global counterparts and pressuring stocks, as data sowed new doubts about the timing and extent of Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Meanwhile, crude oil rose for a fourth day to reach a one-month high amid speculation OPEC+ will maintain production cuts at a meeting this Sunday and renewed geopolitical tensions.

U.S. yields climbed after consumer confidence data came in stronger than expected on Tuesday, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said further rate hikes were still a possibility, and two Treasury auctions were poorly received by investors.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose as high as 4.576 per cent, a level not seen since May 3, and was last up two basis points at 4.566 per cent. Yields move inversely to prices.

Germany’s 10-year bond yield rose to 2.637 per cent, the highest in a month, and was last at 2.609 per cent. Meanwhile, equivalent Japanese yields hit the highest since December 2011 at 1.081 per cent on expectations that the Bank of Japan could soon raise interest rates again.

“These expectations of Fed rate cuts have been pared back,” said Aneeka Gupta, director of macroeconomic research at WisdomTree. “Overnight we had Neel Kashkari mention that we still can’t take the possibility of a rate hike in 2024 off the table.”

The sharp improvement in a U.S. consumer confidence measure for May has kept the market guessing about the strength of the economy and sticky inflationary pressures, which in turn cloud the outlook for the Fed’s policy path.

Traders currently put the odds of at least a quarter-point interest rate cut by September at around 44 per cent following the data, from a coin toss a day earlier, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

European equities opened lower, with the continent-wide STOXX 600 index falling for a second day, by 0.4 per cent. Britain’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.28 per cent, Germany’s DAX dropped 0.46 per cent and France’s CAC 40 gave back 0.65 per cent.

U.S. stock futures were also in the red, with S&P 500 contracts 0.48 per cent down and Nasdaq contracts off by 0.56 per cent.

Gupta said the release of U.S. personal consumption expenditure inflation data on Friday will be an important guide for Fed policy. Economists expect PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred measure – held steady at 2.7 per cent in April from the same level in March.

“If we get a slight slowdown come in on Friday that would definitely cement the possibility of a rate cut coming to fruition for September,” Gupta said.

The dollar rose to a four-week peak of 157.4 yen on Wednesday, boosted by higher U.S. bond yields. It was last up about 0.2 per cent against the euro at US$1.0839.

In energy markets, Brent crude oil futures for July delivery rose 0.65 per cent to $84.78 a barrel, the highest since May 1, while U.S. crude futures climbed 0.74 per cent to US$80.42.

Oil prices gained more than US$1 a barrel on Tuesday on the expectation that OPEC+ will maintain crude supply curbs at its June 2 meeting, while the start of U.S. summer driving season and Israel’s assault on Rafah, next to the Egyptian border, has added to geopolitical tensions.

Mainland Chinese blue chip stocks edged 0.12 per cent higher after the IMF upgraded its economic growth forecasts for the country.

Japan’s Nikkei closed 0.77 per cent lower at 38,556.87, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng retreated 1.83 per cent to 18,477.01.

-Reuters

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