Predicting contracts for 10 top NBA free agents: The deals I’d offer, and their best team fits

The art of negotiating a contract in free agency is not as simple as writing a blank check. A new contract for Paul George should start at his max salary of $49.3 million, but his next team, the LA Clippers or perhaps the Philadelphia 76ers, will negotiate the length and other clauses.

The 34-year old is eligible to sign a four-year contract with either team and can also ask for a no-trade clause with the Clippers.

To show the complexities of negotiating in free agency, I picked 10 free agents, starting with LeBron James, and examined what their next contract should be and picked teams that could give them that deal.

Follow NBA free agency’s biggest deals

Kevin Pelton’s top-20 free agent ranking: No. 1

The deal I’d offer: Two years, $80 million, including a player option and no-trade clause

Note: James has until June 29 to exercise his $51.4 million player option.

Best free agent fit: Los Angeles Lakers

We should preface this by saying there is a difference between what James should get and what contract would help the Lakers the most. He continues to play as a top-15 player and recently earned All-NBA for a 20th consecutive season. He has earned the right to dictate the length and dollars on his next contract.

But what happens if the next James contract starts at $40 million, $10 million dollars less of the maximum he can earn in the first year?

Such a discount would keep the Lakers well below the second apron even if D’Angelo Russell opts in to his $18.9 million contract or takes less in a new deal. The Lakers could also sign restricted free agent Max Christie and not exceed the threshold. Teams below the second apron also have more flexibility to send out contracts in a trade.

James could, however, point to the fact that by declining his $51.4 million option, he would be taking less in the next contract. The first-year salary on a new contract is $49.9 million.

James should seek a two-year, $104 million contract that includes a player option and no-trade clause. Because James has played in the NBA for at least eight seasons and four with the Lakers, he is eligible to include the rare no-trade clause if he signs an entirely new contract. A short-term contract would also give James the option to become a free agent next offseason.

He is also eligible to sign the largest contract in his career at three years and $162 million.

play

Windy breaks down Paul George’s options in the offseason to McAfee

Brian Windhorst breaks down Paul George’s three options in the NBA offseason to Pat McAfee.

Kevin Pelton’s top-20 free agent ranking: No. 2

The deal I’d offer: Three years, $150 million and a no-trade clause

Note: George has until June 29 to exercise his $48.8 million player option for next season.

Best free agent fits: LA Clippers, Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic

This is the same contract Kawhi Leonard signed in January but with a caveat, a full no-trade clause.

Instead of including a fourth season, the no-trade clause is a compromise. It is available only if George is a free agent, and he would join Phoenix Suns guard Bradley Beal as the only players to possess full no-trade clauses.

The Clippers can point to the three-year, $150 million extension Leonard signed in January as the standard under this new collective bargaining agreement.

Leonard, 32, took $70 million less than the maximum he was allowed to sign for. He is one year younger than George, and when he’s available and healthy, he’s the better overall player. But since signing with the Clippers in 2019, Leonard has failed to finish the postseason three times, including most recently in 2023 and 2024. He tore his right ACL in 2021 and then underwent a cleanup procedure last June.

George will point to the fact that availability matters and, most important, there is a marketplace in which another team can outbid the $150 million offered.

The 76ers could create up to $65 million in cap space and offer George a four-year, $212 million contract. He would earn $56.5 million at 37 years old. The contract is only $8 million less than what the Clippers could offer.

Are the Clippers willing to take that risk and not have George in uniform when the $2 billion Intuit Dome is set to open in August?

Kevin Pelton’s top-20 free agent ranking: No. 5

The deal I’d offer: Three years, $90 million

Best free agent fit: LA Clippers

Remember last offseason when Kyrie Irving entered free agency and there were no teams willing to offer a substantial contract other than the Dallas Mavericks?

Irving signed a three-year, $120 million deal, and the Mavericks were ridiculed because they were considered to be bidding against themselves. Irving’s contract illustrated the Mavericks’ willingness to compromise and not have the All-Star feel unwanted, despite their position of leverage.

Irving was rewarded with an average salary of $40 million but also gave the Mavericks flexibility to build out the roster. The savings allowed Dallas to sign-and-trade for Grant Williams and remain below the first apron. Williams was then traded to Charlotte for P.J. Washington.

The same philosophy should hold true for Harden.

Harden has earned $340 million in his career, and the thinking from the Clippers cannot be that the 2018 MVP does not have options. There is no reason to believe he would not sign for the $3.1 million minimum exception if it allows him compete for a title.

The Suns are an example of a team that could contend for a championship if Harden were to sign with them, but it would come at a significant discount.

A contract that starts at $27.7 million is equal to the average point guard salary for next season.

Harden, who will turn 35 on Aug. 26, played a big role in the Clippers having the second-best record in the NBA prior to Feb. 6. In 48 games prior to the All-Star break, Harden averaged 17.5 points, 8.4 assists and 2.5 turnovers.

However, as the Clippers struggled down the stretch, so did Harden. In the last 16 games of the regular season, Harden averaged 12.7 points and shot 36% from the field. He averaged 26 points and 7 assists in the first four games of the playoffs’ first round, before shooting 2-for-12 with 7 points and no assists in Game 5 against Dallas. It marked his 13th career playoff game of shooting 20% or worse from the field while taking at least 10 shots, the most such games in the shot clock era.

Kevin Pelton’s top-20 free agent ranking: Not ranked

The deal I’d offer: Two years, $70 million

Best free agent fits: Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder, Orlando Magic and Philadelphia 76ers

In a perfect world, Golden State would reward Thompson with the same four-year, $134 million contract Jrue Holiday signed with the Boston Celtics.

Thompson averaged 19.8 points and shot 42.8% on 3-pointers in 14 games as a reserve. He ranked second on the team in points per game after the All-Star break, shooting 45.4% from the field and 41.2% on 3-pointers

But the Warriors no longer live in a perfect world, and owner Joe Lacob has gone on the record to remind that the days of the franchise’s high spending are over.

“Our Plan 1, or 1A, is that we’d like to be out of the tax, and we think that we have a way to do that,” Lacob said on “The TK Show” with Tim Kawakami. “That kind of is the plan, not just under the second apron. … We don’t want to be a repeater.” Lacob would later say that the Warriors will never bottom out also.

What does this mean for a new Thompson contract? If the goal remains to sign Thompson, the Warriors are hard-pressed to get under the luxury tax even if they waive the contracts of Chris Paul and Kevon Looney and then fill out the roster with players signed to the veterans minimum exception.

A Thompson contract that starts at $33 million, however, keeps Golden State below the first and second apron.

Would Thompson see a two-year contract as an insult especially after Draymond Green signed for four years and $120 million last offseason?

Could he get a third year from a team such as Orlando or Oklahoma City? Both teams are entering a two-year financial window to spend before extensions for Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams begin.

Kevin Pelton’s top-20 free agent ranking: No. 9

The deal I’d offer: Three years, $90 million, and the contract is guaranteed for $75 million and conditionally protected in the final season

Best free agent fits: Chicago Bulls and LA Clippers

DeRozan continues to prove age is just a number. The 34-year-old DeRozan averaged 24 points, his 11th straight season of averaging at least 20 points. He continues to be one of the best closers in the NBA, ranking behind Golden State’s Stephen Curry for most clutch-time points this season.

Besides being an elite scorer, DeRozan is one of the most durable players.

Since entering the NBA in 2009-10, he has played in 92% of regular-season games, missing a total of 17 games in his three seasons in Chicago.

If free agency was flushed with money, DeRozan’s next contract would exceed the three-year, $81 million guaranteed deal he signed in 2021 with Chicago, despite his age. Unfortunately, outside of re-signing in Chicago with Bird rights, there are only five teams with room, including two, Detroit and Utah, who are rebuilding. Oklahoma City and Orlando could also benefit from his scoring and leadership, but is either team willing to commit three seasons and an average of $30 million per season? The likely answer is no.

Bulls president of basketball operations Arturas Karnisovas has been outspoken that change is needed, but he has also stressed bringing back DeRozan as a priority. Can the Bulls accomplish both?

DeRozan would be a perfect fit in Los Angeles, either with the Clippers or Lakers, but both teams would need to orchestrate a complicated sign-and-trade without exceeding the first apron. The Bulls would also need to agree to taking back contracts.

A three-year, $90 million contract is a compromise from the player and his next team, likely Chicago.

DeRozan gets an extra $9 million more than his most recent contract, and the $27.7 million salary in the first year is less than 20% of the salary cap. The team gets protection in the third season in that $15 million out of the $32 million is guaranteed.

The contract would become fully guaranteed if DeRozan plays a minimum of 65 games and Chicago reaches the first round of the playoffs in 2024-25 or 2025-26.

Kevin Pelton’s top-20 free agent ranking: No. 8

The deal I’d offer: Four years, $145 million. The last season is guaranteed if Anunoby reaches a games criteria.

Note: Anunoby has until June 25 to exercise his $19.9 million player option for next season.

Best free agent fits: New York Knicks and Philadelphia

Anunoby is an All-NBA defender, and his impact in New York since the late December trade has to be taken into consideration with his next contract.

In the 31 regular-season and postseason games he played, New York was 26-5.

Since the trade in late December, Anunoby ranked first in holding opponents to 35.7% shooting as the closest defender, per Second Spectrum. Offensively, he is one of 13 players to make at least 60 corner 3-pointers this season. He and Jalen Brunson had a plus-23.3 net efficiency when on the court together, the best efficiency among two-player duos to play 500-plus minutes together, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

Anunoby turns 27 in July and is in the prime of his career, and New York acquired him not as a short-term contributor but to sign for the future. He is one of the top free agents available and should be rewarded with a lucrative contract, likely from New York.

The impact on the court, however, is watered down by Anunoby’s lack of availability. He has played an average of 50 games in the past four seasons.

The durability concerns are why a games-played clause should be included in his next contract.

For example, the first three seasons of the $145 million contract would be fully guaranteed. In the event Anunoby plays more than 65 games in any of the next three seasons, the $40.1 million salary in the fourth year would become guaranteed.

Kevin Pelton’s top-20 free agent ranking: No. 16

The deal I’d offer: Four years, $105.5 million. The contract is guaranteed in the first season and has rolling protection in Years 2 to 4.

Best free agent fits: Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons and Utah Jazz

There is no debate on Bridges’ value on the court.

In two of the past three seasons (he did not play in 2022-23), Bridges averaged at least 20 points per game. Last season, he had career highs in rebounds (7.3) and steals (0.94).

He became the 11th player in NBA history to record each of his first two career 40-point games in consecutive games and became only the second player in Hornets history with 45 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists in a game.

The question on his next contract is not basketball related but if a team can trust him.

Bridges was arrested in June 2022 for felony domestic violence. He missed the 2022-23 season and plead no contest to the charge. He was eventually suspended 30 games because of the domestic violence incident. Bridges was then charged in October 2023 with violating his probation and protection order. The charges were eventually dismissed due to “insufficient evidence to warrant prosecution,” per a court filing obtained by ESPN.

Because of Bridges’ off-court transgressions, it is hard to wrap my arms around guaranteeing all four years of the $100 million contract.

Similar to the extension Houston signed Kevin Porter Jr. to in October 2022, the first-year salary of $30 million is fully guaranteed. The remaining three seasons decline, are nonguaranteed and have trigger dates that allow Charlotte to waive Bridges and not incur a financial penalty.

For example, the $27.6 million salary in 2025-26 is guaranteed if Bridges is not waived by June 29, 2025.

Porter was arrested in September for domestic violence, traded to Oklahoma City and then waived. The Thunder were responsible for $16.8 of the $63.4 million left on his contract.

Kevin Pelton’s top-20 free agent ranking: No. 19

The deal I’d offer: Two years and $50 million

Best free agent fits: New York, Oklahoma City and Detroit

Teams with cap space have an advantage knowing they can outbid New York on a Hartenstein contract.

Because he signed a two-year contract with New York in 2022, Hartenstein has early Bird rights, limiting the Knicks to offering a maximum four-year, $72.5 million contract.

A two-year contract by a team like Oklahoma City or Detroit is fewer years (both can offer four-year contracts) but gives Hartenstein an average of $25 million per season — $9 million more than in New York. He would also rank in the top 10 of highest-paid centers in 2024-25.

A short-term contract also allows Hartenstein to reenter free agency at age 28.

Hartenstein played a career high in minutes in New York. He joined Anthony Davis and Victor Wembanyama as the only players with 85 blocks and 85 steals in a season. He became the first player since Moses Malone in 1982 to record 12 offensive rebounds and 5 assists in a playoff game, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

The last time an unrestricted free agent center signed a contract for more than two seasons was Jusuf Nurkic in 2022. The then-Trail Blazers center signed a four-year, $70 million contract.

Kevin Pelton’s top-20 free agent ranking: No. 19

The deal I’d offer: Three years, $58 million

Best free agents fits: Washington, Brooklyn, Orlando and San Antonio

The two-year, $29 million contract Jones just completed is a reflection of his role in Memphis backing up Ja Morant.

A career backup in his first eight seasons, Jones started a career-high 66 games in Washington last season. The veteran had career highs in points (12.0), assists (7.3), field goal percentage (48.9%) and 3-point shooting (41.4%). Jones averaged 1.0 turnover or less for the ninth consecutive season.

Per Cleaning the Glass, Jones ranked in the 90% percentile in assists-to-usage rate and turnover percentage at his position in three straight seasons.

A $17.9 million salary in the first year tops the $14 million he earned last season but is still well below the $26 million average salary for starting point guards next year.

Jones is considered one of the top available unrestricted free agents.

Kevin Pelton’s top-20 free agent ranking: Not ranked

The deal I’d offer: Two years, $44 million with a team option in the last year

Best free agent fits: Dallas, Detroit and Oklahoma City

Teams are fully aware that the $22 million per year contract is something Jones’ current team, Dallas, cannot offer. Because Jones signed a one-year contract and the Mavericks are straddled on the tax line, the maximum starting salary is $5.2 million.

A $22 million salary is an overpay, especially for a player who has never averaged more than 9 points in a season. But remember, teams are mandated to spend at least 90% of the $141 million salary cap by the first day of the regular season.

We saw last offseason Indiana sign Bruce Brown Jr. to a two-year, $45 million contract but with a team option in the last season. He was eventually sent to Toronto as part of the Pascal Siakam trade.

A $44-million contract is a win-win for Jones and his new team.

The first-year salary nearly equals Jones’ career earnings, and his new team has a tradable contract but also a veteran player who can impact the game on defense.

For the first time in his career, Jones recorded at least 50 blocks and steals. He ranked in the top 10 in total defensive half-court matchups vs. 2024 All-Stars and effective field goal percentage allowed vs. 2024 All-Stars among them to defend 150-plus shots, according to Second Spectrum.