PHR Mailbag: Golden Knights, Hayton, Offseason, Bertuzzi, Red Wings, Lightning, McGroarty

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s left to look forward to this summer after a wild start to free agency, Detroit’s surprisingly quiet offseason, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in next weekend’s mailbag.

DirtbagBlues: What are the odds Vegas trades from their blue line depth for a top-six winger? Who could they target?

This is largely a toss-up question for me.  If the Golden Knights do that, they’re weakening their back end as it’s not the depth players like Nic Hague and Zach Whitecloud who are going to bring back a legitimate top-six forward.  If they don’t, their forward group isn’t going to look anywhere near as strong as it did just last season.  There’s no right answer here; it comes down to which area do they think could be easier to address in-season.  For me, that’s the forward group so I’d put the odds at 40%.

For the first part of the season, I suspect Vegas will want to see what they have.  Can Alexander Holtz find a new gear with a new team and a new system?  Can Victor Olofsson lock down a regular spot?  I could see Nicolas Roy getting a chance to play on the wing in the top six as well with Brett Howden anchoring the fourth line.  Maybe William Karlsson gets a shot on the wing with Roy centring the third line.  Brendan Brisson could get a chance.  If they hit with one of those, they’re in much better shape.  They don’t have that many options defensively which is why I think they lean this way.

Now, you asked who they could target if they moved a defenseman out so I’ll play along.  Personally, I feel like they’re a dark horse for Martin Necas.  If they’re going after a legitimate piece, I think it costs them Shea Theodore.  They have enough LTIR space remaining using Robin Lehner’s expected placement on there to cover the gap between Theodore’s $5.2MM and what Necas’ next deal should cost.  It probably takes both players agreeing to new deals before a trade is finalized but that could be an interesting one.

Failing that, Nikolaj Ehlers feels like another target although that could be more of a rental-for-rental type of swap.  Patrik Laine is in play but I don’t see Columbus eating half the contract and without that, he’s probably too hard to fit in.  There aren’t many viable options though, not with a lot of teams likely done their heavy lifting already.

MoneyBallJustWorks: Hayton for Liljegren and a 5th, who says no?

It’s an interesting idea, two players who their current teams have been patient with but haven’t quite been able to make the consistent impact that their draft slots would suggest.  For a deal like this, the late-round draft pick is largely meaningless; generally speaking, a team isn’t going to part with what they perceive is a slightly better player because they’re getting a fifth-round pick back.  For all intents and purposes, the teams would be evaluating this as a one-for-one idea.

For Toronto, getting Barrett Hayton would give them some extra center depth, giving them the chance to shift Max Domi to the wing or perhaps Hayton himself.  They’d have some desirable flexibility at a minimum.  Perhaps more importantly, they’d have a bit more insurance down the middle with John Tavares a year away from UFA eligibility.  While their right-shot defensive depth would be thinned out more – especially with Jani Hakanpaa’s deal still not yet registered amid speculation about concern over his knee injury – I think the good outweighs the bad, including $350K in cap savings.  I think they say yes.

I’m less sure that Utah would, however.  They have Sean Durzi and newly-acquired John Marino in their top two spots on the right side of their back end.  Now, they’re parting with Hayton to upgrade their third pairing.  I think they can accomplish that objective without necessarily moving Hayton to do that, especially with nearly $10MM in cap room to work with still, per PuckPedia.  I suspect they’d rather explore alternate ways to fill out their third pairing or defensive depth, ones that wouldn’t see them parting with a roster forward in the process.  Value-wise, it’s pretty good but I think Utah says no here.

Schwa: With most of the UFAs signed already, is this going to be a very boring offseason? Or do you foresee any big trades or otherwise coming between now and training camp?

We’re at the point of the offseason where things are going to get really slow.  Yes, it’ll probably come in on the boring side most days but there are some things worth keeping an eye on.

On the trade front, what happens with Necas, Laine, Ehlers, and Trevor Zegras, among others?  Those are all notable moves that could happen.  I feel like Detroit (more on them shortly) has something coming.  Montreal is still believed to be sniffing around a move up front.  While Winnipeg could be moving Ehlers, it feels like they need to add up front as well.  With no truly prominent free agents remaining, there’s no real domino that needs to fall for any of these moves to happen (Laine exiting the Player Assistance Program feels like the first possible one to get things going) so these may take a while.

I’m also intrigued about some of the extension-eligible players.  What happens with Leon Draisaitl and the GM-less Oilers, especially with an implied desire to not negotiate in-season?  Does Sidney Crosby get his deal done?  Mikko Rantanen, Carter Verhaeghe, and Mitch Marner are all eligible as well.  It’s doubtful all of these players put pen to paper on new deals by training camp but we could see a few which could make things interesting.

Unclemike1526: Everybody is trying to make a big deal about Nick Foligno talking to Tyler Bertuzzi on the phone and calling it tampering. Since they’re from the same town and seem to be friends so what? I mean players talk to each other. It’s been going on in Basketball for years and nobody bats an eye. Isn’t there some sort of “legal communication” period before free agency anyway? Bertuzzi wasn’t going back where he was because of the cap so what is the real story?

Let me answer these out of order.  There is no longer a pre-free agency communication period.  Officially, no contact of any kind is to be had with pending free agents until July 1st at 11 AM CT.  I’m not sure a single team even came close to abiding to that based on what happened on July 1st but that’s what the NHL would have us believe.  (As an aside, the penalties the NBA put in for tampering the last couple of years really slowed down the start of the market in that league compared to the free-for-all it was in the past or at least slowed down the leaks of pre-arranged deals once the window opened up on June 30th.)

That Foligno talked to Bertuzzi isn’t a point of concern on its own.  Players can unofficially try to recruit potential free agents by talking about all of the good things about the market, schools for their kids, how nice it is to play for a certain coach, etc.  All of that is fine.  Speak in general terms and there’s no issue.

But Bertuzzi’s admission that Chicago wasn’t on his radar until Foligno told him Chicago was interested isn’t speaking in general terms.  As soon as Foligno allegedly told Bertuzzi before the market opened up that the Blackhawks had interest, he was relaying a message from management indicating interest to a prospective free agent before legal communication could begin.  That is indeed tampering.

Think of it this way.  If Foligno told Bertuzzi that he should come to Chicago, it’s a good place to play and there’s lots you’ll like, that’s fine.  If he said it’s a good place to play, there’s lots you’ll like, and they’re putting together a big offer for you, that’s a problem.  That’s the difference.

Having said that, there were what, 70 of these contracts that were pretty much done before the market opened up?  Toronto had some of those as well so it’s not as if they can cry foul on Bertuzzi knowing they somehow had several contracts finalized mere minutes into free agency.  They’re not going to make a fuss about it but if Bertuzzi’s account is truthful, there’s at least a part of it that would qualify as tampering.

tigers22 2: Could the Red Wings have had a worse offseason and the worst most confusing trade to start a year? Why do we have 20 goalies?

It can always be worse.  A couple of players go and get long-term injuries while training that costs them considerable time during the regular season, a core piece could ask for a trade, stuff like that.  But yes, their offseason so far qualifies as extremely underwhelming.

The Jake Walman trade was surprising on a few fronts.  The first is that they opted to get rid of him in the first place over someone like Justin Holl who could barely crack the lineup.  If you’re going to part with a fairly high draft pick to move off a contract, shouldn’t it have been him who moved?  The second is that it took incentivization to move him in the first place; I thought he had some standalone value.  And the third is that the move was made before the corresponding swap was in place.

This is pure speculation on my end but I think this was part of the Jacob Trouba speculated swap, Detroit needed to clear a spot for him and offset some of the money and the Rangers didn’t want to take him back as they wanted the cap space.  Yzerman pulled the trigger early, expecting that deal to get done or to use that money elsewhere.  Unless you’re counting that money as going to Vladimir Tarasenko (a nice add for them, by the way, to replace Robby Fabbri), that didn’t happen.

If there’s a small silver lining here (and I mean small), it’s that they have enough cap space left to offer long-term deals to Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider.  This time a month ago, I didn’t think they could do both; I expected a long-term agreement for Seider and a bridge for Raymond.  If they both get long-term deals and continue to progress, that could be beneficial down the road.  Like I said, that’s a very small silver lining.

As for the seven goaltenders they have under contract, it is a lot.  I think they’ve decided to carry three at the NHL level again (Cam Talbot, Alex Lyon, and Ville Husso).  Jack Campbell is the veteran to work with Sebastian Cossa at AHL Grand Rapids.  Carter Gylander starts at the ECHL level where he can get a number one workload.  That’s six and I can make sense of that.  The seventh is Gage Alexander and I’m not sure he was necessarily targeted by Detroit.  I think he was simply the contract they had to take back in the Fabbri swap with the Ducks getting close to the contract limit.  He’s probably ECHL-bound as well but it wouldn’t shock me if he was flipped for a skater down the road.

FeeltheThunder: There is a strong belief that Tampa will make a move to bring in someone through trade to fill the hole (left by Stamkos) on the second line with Cirelli and Hagel but who do you feel they’ll target in making a move for as Cam Atkinson appears to be more third line territory than second line?… Also is there a possibility that blue-chip prospects Conor Geekie or Ethan Gauthier make the team this year?

I heard a little rumbling that Tampa could be interested in acquiring Frank Vatrano from Anaheim. What do you think of this possibility and what would it take for Tampa to get him from Anaheim?

I’m going to combine your two questions here since they’re on the same subject.  It definitely feels like the Lightning need to add at least more of a proven offensive player.  Atkinson could bounce back but they can’t count on him to be that player.

But here’s the problem.  After re-signing J.J. Moser earlier this week, they have barely $730K in cap room, per PuckPedia.  That’s not much to work with.  Yes, they can drop to a smaller-sized roster which would give them a bit of extra wiggle room but also would leave them in tough shape for when injuries inevitably arise.

I don’t think there’s a great trade target, to be honest.  Vatrano makes plenty of sense but he makes $3.65MM.  Even if they convinced the Ducks to take Conor Sheary back, there’s still a $1.65MM difference to overcome, well above what they can afford.  Anaheim could retain money, sure, but then the acquisition cost comes up.  Do they want to move another future first-round pick already?  (I don’t think a second-rounder will get it done.)  I’m not sure they would.

For me, they’re a dark horse team for Daniel Sprong if his market doesn’t materialize.  On a one-year lower-cost deal (think in the $1.4MM range where they’d have to go to a 21-player roster to afford him), he’d be an interesting albeit imperfect fit.  But they need secondary offense and he’s the one player left that can provide it.

As for the youngsters, I don’t think Gauthier has much of a chance.  It’s junior or Tampa Bay for him and it should be the former.  But Geekie is an interesting case.  If they make a move to add some scoring help, I think he starts in Syracuse simply because they won’t have enough money to start him with the big club.  If they don’t, he should get a long look with the Lightning where they could start him on the wing to ease him in and if all went well, he could possibly fill that void in the top six.

Shjon: What is a reasonable or realistic trade return for Rutger McGroarty at this point? When I first heard about the Utah deal for Sergachev, I was excited to see that franchise making moves like that, again, but then felt disappointed the Jets couldn’t have done something similar involving McGroarty. (and one of Samberg or Heinola….likely higher draft picks) Could Calgary be a player in that way? (Weegar or Andersson) seeing as they seem to be “rebuilding” while afraid to label it such. (?)

I don’t think there’s a big win-now deal out there for McGroarty as Utah tried to do with the Mikhail Sergachev swap.  The early speculation was that Minnesota and Montreal were early suitors with their offers being contingent on what happened in the first round of last month’s draft.  That tells me the offers were futures-based which seemed to be fine with GM Kevin Cheveldayoff at the time.

That said, now that we know that free agency didn’t exactly go as planned for the Jets, it’s possible that they’ll be more open to pieces that can be difference-makers now instead of later.

However, there aren’t many teams that have win-now pieces to part with, especially since there aren’t any left in free agency to try to backfill with.  Calgary is certainly one but would MacKenzie Weegar waive his no-trade clause to go to the Jets?  I’m not sure he would.  Rasmus Andersson would be a maybe although it’d take more than McGroarty to get him but there could be something there.

But what other rebuilding teams have the type of pieces the Jets could use?  Anaheim, San Jose, and Montreal have torn it down and have younger core players with some overpriced veterans so there aren’t many fits there.  The best fits with Chicago are younger pieces that still need some development time.  Same with Columbus, Utah, and Buffalo, teams that aren’t as much rebuilding now as they are trying to make the playoffs.

That’s why it still comes down to a futures-based return for me, if he moves at all.  A first-round pick with a younger roster player is something that more teams will be able to do and Cheveldayoff needs the bigger pool of teams to elicit the best possible return.  Maybe a futures-based return in the form of another player around McGroarty’s situation (two years post-draft, near NHL-ready) could work as well.  But if the hope is that they can get a proven core player in return for McGroarty, I think they’re going to be disappointed when they come up short on that front.

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