PFF projects Bills to lose crown, fall in AFC East standings in 2024 NFL season

What’s perhaps gone a bit overlooked in the Buffalo Bills’ recent ascent into national prominence and perennial championship contention is the team’s consistent dominance in its division; the team is 19-5 against its AFC East foes since the 2020 NFL season and has won four consecutive AFC East titles.

This streak—if one publication is to be believed—could soon be coming to an end. Pro Football Focus writer Trevor Sikkema recently wrote an article predicting the teams that will win each NFL division in the 2024 season, picking the Miami Dolphins to usurp the Bills and take the AFC East crown.

Ouch.

Making matters worse is the fact that he doesn’t necessarily foresee Buffalo factoring too heavily into the division race, believing it’ll come down to the Dolphins and New York Jets.

Double ouch.

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Sikkema chalks the Bills’ divisional fall up to their offseason moves, writing “. . . their roster looks quite different from previous seasons, as there will be no Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, Tre’Davious White, Mitch Morse, Jordan Poyer or Micah Hyde. They will be a good team with one of the best quarterbacks in the world behind center, but it’s a tough division, and they have a tough schedule.”

Buffalo did make significant alterations to its roster in the spring, with the departures of Diggs and Morse, in particular, figuring to have heavy impacts on the 2024 campaign. While the omissions of Davis, White, Poyer, and Hyde will be felt, the team seems to have successfully supplemented their absences; Davis wasn’t a consistent playmaker for the team, and it should be able to get his production out of a player like rookie Keon Coleman. White was once one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL but has been limited to just 10 games over the past two seasons (and 21 over the past three) due to significant leg injuries. Poyer and Hyde have effectively manned the Bills’ defensive backfield since the 2017 season but, too, have dealt with injuries in the recent past; both players have missed time over the past two seasons with injuries, with Hyde missing the vast majority of the 2022 campaign with a neck injury.

Motivations for the maneuvers aside, the Buffalo of today objectively looks different than the Buffalo of just a few months ago. With the Dolphins coming within a game of the division last year and the Jets returning four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers from injury, it’s fair to believe either team will make a run at the division.

Sikkema writes the following of his ultimate division pick:

“As for Miami, people love to talk about the offense, but the defense was also very good last season, finishing top-five in both team pass-rush grade (84.1) and team run-defense grade (89.1),” Sikkema writes. “They also have the easiest strength of schedule in the division.

“It’s close between the Jets and Dolphins for me, but a more favorable schedule setup gives the Dolphins the edge.”

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Sikkema’s analysis of the Bills focuses on what the team is losing from a season ago without mentioning their additions, while his analysis of the Dolphins focuses on what the team was a year ago without touching on their subtractions. Miami’s defense was indeed stout last season, but the team lost defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Raekwon Davis, linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, and safety Brandon Jones. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio also departed for greener pastures in Philadelphia.

The team did supplement its departures with the likes of Neville Gallimore, Jordyn Brooks, Shaq Barrett, and Jordan Poyer, and it’s certainly possible that the team’s defense will continue its strong play into the new campaign—however, it just seems a bit disingenuous to remove the Bills from contention given their offseason departures while simply assuming Miami’s defense will be unphased in the face of its own significant turnover.

June predictions are ultimately just a fun exercise on which we can soon look back and reflect on either favorably or negatively; they have little impact when it comes to the final division standings themselves. Buffalo will look to make it five straight AFC East titles when it embarks down its 2024 slate this September.