Penn Mile fair odds: Inside speed is key to value

The Grade 3, $400,000 Penn Mile features several potential stars among the 3-year-old male turf ranks and maybe one bonafide star after the one-mile turf event Friday.

As intriguing as the race is from that standpoint, it is an even better betting proposition, as morning-line favorite Trikari figures to be vulnerable from the outside post and there is no reason to think the American Turf Stakes (G2) winner won’t take money given he is 9-5 on Horse Racing Nation‘s AI-generated projected odds line.

The issues are that I missed the wedding at 47-1 on Kentucky Derby day, and taking him as the favorite here seems meh. The post is no picnic either. Post 10 is 1-for-29 at this course and distance. What’s more, the outside post in such races with eight to 11 starters is 5-for-68 with a -49.8% ROI.

That is potentially somewhat circumstantial. None of the 29 horses in post 10 were favored, but there is still pause because I do not see Trikari as any better than the other contenders, so why take a short price?

Credit to Penn National for a very fair turf course. No run style has an advantage, and although there’s a slight preference inside on percentages it is not glaring.

That said, Good Lord Lorrie should have an advantage here given his draw and ability to lie close to the pace. Tropandhagen has virtually no chance to win this race but will likely be in front. That early zip should create separation with the field and give jockey Flavian Prat an opportunity to drop behind the no-hoper and get first run on the rest of the field.

As the third choice on the morning line but most likely winner on my fair odds line, I expect Good Lord Lorrie to offer a great opportunity for a win bet.

I am somewhat interested in what the public will do with Please Advise, as I think the public will overlook the six-pound weight break from the other contenders. He is the uncoupled stablemate of our top pick from the barn of Peter Gulyas. Those six pounds are not insignificant, and Please Advise has been in the mix in his two-turn stakes races.