Ottawa declines to release secret internal analysis of economic effects of carbon pricing

The Liberal government is declining to release its internal analysis of the economic impacts of carbon pricing and refusing to say why it is keeping the data secret, even as it criticizes the federal budget watchdog for an error in its analysis of the policy.

Parliamentary Budget Officer Yves Giroux disclosed to a House of Commons committee on Monday that the government has internal analysis of the economic impacts of its consumer and industrial carbon pricing programs that it is keeping under wraps. He said the federal government’s findings are largely in line with those of his office: that there is overall a net negative impact from the pricing regimes.

Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault’s office has repeatedly declined Globe and Mail requests to explain why it is keeping its internal analysis secret. It also did not respond to a request for the documents.

The Official Opposition seized on the issue Tuesday during Question Period, where Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and four of his MPs repeatedly accused the government of a cover-up and muzzling the budget watchdog and demanded the minority Liberals release their internal findings.

However, rather than addressing those questions, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his colleagues responded by pointing out that Mr. Giroux has belatedly acknowledged an error in his own report and deflected by accusing the Conservatives of gagging their MPs on the abortion issue.

Mr. Trudeau maintained his government’s position that eight out of 10 Canadian households are better off with the carbon price system because the rebate they receive is greater than what they pay for the fuel charge.

“We will continue to put money in people’s pockets and fight climate change,” the Prime Minister said.

Mr. Poilievre responded that, “if that was true, he would simply release the report with the real costs of the carbon tax that he’s been hiding.”

Mr. Giroux’s office posts its correspondence with the government online. In April, the Parliamentary Budget Officer requested the government’s data looking at the economic impact of carbon pricing on each province and territory and by sector to the end of the decade, as well as the impact on investment and incomes.

The government provided Mr. Giroux’s office with the data in May under the caveat that the information “is used for your office’s internal purposes only and is not published or further distributed.”

The government has previously released cost-benefit analyses of its industrial carbon pricing system through the Canada Gazette. Mr. Giroux’s office said the data the government sent him are not included in that publication.

In an interview Tuesday on CTV’s Power Play with Vassy Kapelos, NDP House Leader Peter Julian said the government should release the internal report.

“The Liberals should not be hiding information that has been developed with taxpayers funding,” Mr. Julian said, as he accused the Liberals of “showing the same kind of disrespect” to Mr. Giroux’s office as the Conservatives did when they were in government.

The Parliamentary Budget Officer has faced immense criticism from the Liberals since the Canadian Press reported last week that he quietly notified Parliament about an error in his impact analysis of the consumer carbon price.

His office mistakenly included the effects of the industrial carbon price in its economic analysis of the impacts of the consumer carbon price. The result was that it overestimated the negative impact of the consumer carbon price, though it remains unclear by how much.

The distinction is significant because, while the Conservatives have criticized the consumer carbon price, they have been mum on the industrial system and whether they would keep it if they form government.

Mr. Giroux is expected to release a corrected report on the issue in the fall.

University of British Columbia professor Kathryn Harrison said she is watching for whether the revised report opens up the debate on industrial carbon pricing.

“So far, Pierre Poilievre has been side-stepping that one,” Prof. Harrison said.