Opinion: Justin Trudeau’s leadership troubles aren’t going away

This is a period of Liberal reflection, we are now told by Justin Trudeau himself. That is naturally needed to digest his party’s gut-punch by-election loss in Toronto-St. Paul’s.

And there’s another thing he didn’t mention: The drumbeat of Liberals calling for the Prime Minister to go.

On Friday, nine MPs signed onto a letter demanding an in-person caucus meeting, pronto, to hash out Liberal problems. It was expressed in an exasperated tone that suggested Mr. Trudeau is not getting it.

The first sitting Liberal MP to publicly call for Mr. Trudeau to step down, New Brunswick’s Wayne Long, argued that the party has a responsibility to be a viable option, and for many, Mr. Trudeau’s leadership makes that impossible. Liberals are abuzz with rumours that dozens of MPs are steeling themselves to tell the PM his time is up.

Mr. Trudeau, in St. John’s for Canada Day, offered reflection: “There is always going to be lots of reflection after a tough loss,” he said. He added that there’s more work to do, and he is committed to doing it.

Just last week, Mr. Trudeau’s Immigration Minister and friend, Marc Miller, had warned Liberals to stop navel-gazing, so presumably, reflection is an entirely different thing. At any rate, Liberals at large seem to be reflecting the heck out of things, in ways that don’t bode well for Mr. Trudeau’s continued leadership.

The Prime Minister’s own reflection is another matter. The unique thing about prime ministerial reflection is that it is often not the inward soul-searching of ordinary folk, but an exercise involving spin doctors and strategists.

The goal of such reflection – if the Prime Minister’s resignation has been ruled out – is some kind of desperate reboot. Common methods include firing senior staffers from the inner circle, shuffling the cabinet or bringing in prominent figures, or announcing new policies that suggest shift in direction.

The problem is that none of them address the thing that the letter-writing and grumbling MPs in the caucus feel have identified as the problem: Mr. Trudeau.

Certainly, there were “blue Liberals” questioning the PM’s leadership who also said the party should shift to the centre, whatever that is. But there are also party figures such as former environment minister Catherine McKenna who argued that Mr. Trudeau must step aside to preserve the progressive Liberal legacy. The Venn diagram of Liberal gripes overlaps around the leader.

MPs questioning his leadership privately don’t particularly blame Mr. Trudeau for creating the problems with his leadership – even if they cite mistakes – so much as they think many Canadians have been turned off. For good.

Mr. Long said in a weekend interview that he hears from many people who don’t want to vote for Mr. Poilievre’s Tories but feel they can’t vote for a party led by Mr. Trudeau.

“I hear it left and right,” he said. Liberals have a responsibility to offer them a “viable option,” he added. And he said that weakens the argument that there is no better alternative.

“I don’t buy that we should just stick with the leader. That’s what the [leadership] process is for,” he said. “People say, if not Justin Trudeau, then who? Well, there could be somebody totally different.”

It’s not clear how many MPs share his views, but some say such things in private. There are rumours a number are gearing up to say them to Mr. Trudeau in a caucus meeting.

But who knows? Such face-to-face MP revolts often melt when the moment comes. Mr. Trudeau’s commitment to stay might convince some that rebellion is futile.

Yet Mr. Trudeau’s leadership troubles are not over. He is now an openly contested leader.

Serious Liberal leadership aspirants will organize, because others will. One place to start will be the MPs who are frustrated with Mr. Trudeau.

Turnaround tactics such as recruiting prominent figures have become more complicated, too. There had been and off talks with Mark Carney, the former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor. Perhaps that would have made for a reboot a year ago, but it’s awkward for a leadership aspirant to sign on now.

This is a party that, to an unusual extent, revolves around the leader: It has become the Trudeau Party. Now Mr. Trudeau is not just declining in popularity in polls, but openly contested in the party.

It will be hard for Mr. Trudeau to put that back in the box. The reflection is about him.