One off-season question facing conference finalists Stars and Rangers – Sportsnet.ca

“This could be our year” is a sentiment almost every team and its respective fanbase thinks to itself at the start of any given season.

Unless in a glaringly obvious rebuild, retool, or rewhatever-synonym-floats-your-boat, there is usually some semblance of hope that exists both within and outside an organization when it comes to their ability to be the last one standing, the one who takes home the prize.

The Dallas Stars and New York Rangers were no exception at the start of the 2023-24 NHL season. And to the credit of those two teams, they had every reason to feel confident about their chances this year.

Strong regular-season performances saw the Rangers win the Presidents’ Trophy for the first time since 1994 and the Stars finish just one point behind to sit second overall in the league. As a result, they each moved into the playoffs as the top team in their division and conference.

In Round 1 the Rangers made quick work of the Washington Capitals with a sweep before defeating the Carolina Hurricanes 4-2 in Round 2. Meanwhile, the Stars took down the defending champion Vegas Golden Knights in Game 7 of their opening round then finished off the Colorado Avalanche in six in Round 2.

With a spot booked in the Western Conference Final for the Stars and the Eastern Conference Final for the Rangers, their individual belief that this could be the year only intensified.

Except, with both series behind us, we know now of course that 2024 will not be the year for either club. The two contenders had their high hopes of reaching the Stanley Cup Final eviscerated, as each was eliminated from the playoffs in Game 6 of the third round.

This will be the year for either the Edmonton Oilers or the Florida Panthers, the two conference final victors.

And though the season will not officially conclude until the 2024 champion has been crowned — June 15 at the earliest and June 24 at the latest — we can be sure that the Stars and Rangers are already looking ahead to next year, calculating how to get another strong shot at Lord Stanley.

So with that in mind, here is a look at one question both of these teams will face post-elimination.

Dallas Stars: Of their several free agents this off-season, who will actually stay?

The Stars could technically look like a dramatically different team come the start of next season.

After reaching the Western Conference Final two years in a row, there is room for debate when it comes to running the same — or more realistically, similar — roster back. However, if you look at the team from a more pessimistic lens, opting to focus on the fact they suffered back-to-back Round 3 losses, suddenly there may be some people who feel less passionately about a lack of change this off-season.

Realistically, the Stars are set up to continue being a contender for the foreseeable future. The thing is, some of what happens next is beyond the scope of management’s control.

Dallas heads into this off-season with seven unrestricted free agents and four restricted free agents.

Matt Duchene, Joe Pavelski, Craig Smith, Chris Tanev, Jani Hakanpaa, Derrick Pouliot and Scott Wedgewood are all UFAs, while Ty Dellandrea, Sam Steel, Thomas Harley and Nils Lundkvist are restricted.

We already know not to expect Pavelski back after the veteran forward announced he does not intend to play next season, telling reporters on Tuesday, “I don’t want to say this is official, but the plan is not to be coming back.”

However, the team seems likely to maintain some of their other veteran presence. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, re-signing Duchene and Tanev will be a priority for the Stars before they hit unrestricted free agency on July 1. Fortunately for the team, both players have stated their interest in sticking in Dallas.

“I’d love to,” said Duchene in his exit interview. “… It was a great experience being here this year. If this group is able to stay together, which it looks like it should be able to, this is a great situation.”

Tanev expressed similar feelings, saying, “Hopefully, I’m able to stay here. I had a great time. My family had a great time here. We’ll see how that goes. It’s still obviously really early.”

Duchene joined the Stars on a one-year, $3 million contract last off-season, and Tanev was a nifty trade deadline pick-up that general manager Jim Nill managed to secure while being responsible for just 25 per cent of his $4.5 million cap hit. It is safe to say both players are expecting a sizeable pay increase on their next deals, though there is some talk that Duchene could take a discount to stay.

With less than $16 million in projected cap space, can Dallas get it all done on top of the other deals they need to make happen?

Re-signing Harley is undoubtedly another focal point for Dallas after the 22-year-old defenceman’s breakout season. The question there is whether they will be able to lock him down long-term or instead have to opt for a bridge deal.

With all this to consider, the Stars also have to keep in mind some other important roster pieces who only have one year remaining on their current contracts, including Jamie Benn (UFA), Wyatt Johnston (RFA) and Jake Oettinger (RFA).

New York Rangers: Is this core really capable of getting the job done?

Sure, the 1994 parallels were there… until they were not.

A Stanley Cup win 30 years after their last would have been a storybook outcome, but the Rangers were ultimately unable to get it done. And a significant reason for the defeat was the lacklustre showing from parts of New York’s core.

In their second Eastern Conference Final showing in a matter of three years, the Rangers fell flat once again. In the year in between, they suffered an embarrassing first-round loss at the hands of the New Jersey Devils. All three eliminations seemed to go down similarly in regard to how and where the Rangers struggled.

So, while it seems unlikely amidst all the other success they found this season that management would decide to suddenly blow things up, maybe we have seen all that this current core is capable of in the playoffs? If not with change, how else can they get to the next level?

These are the kinds of questions general manager Chris Drury will have to answer this off-season as he evaluates whether this core group can ultimately achieve more.

During the Rangers’ end-of-year media availability, said core players maintained a clear sense of confidence and belief in what they are capable of going forward.

Chris Kreider, when asked if he thinks the group can bring the Stanley Cup back to New York, simply answered, “Yes.”

“We feel like we’re right there,” said captain Jacob Trouba.

“We’ve got the guys to eventually do it,” Ryan Lindgren added.

Letter-wearers Trouba, Kreider and Mika Zibanejad all struggled against the Panthers. Trouba and Zibanejad both had disappointing post-seasons all around. All three players have a no-move clause on their contract, though Trouba and Kreider both convert to a 15-team no-trade list on July 1. If the Rangers wanted to take a really big swing, the latter would likely command the biggest return.

And there have also been some discussions surrounding the idea of a Trouba buyout. The Rangers used him on the third pair at times near the end of the season and playoffs and if that ends up being the case for next season, stomaching his $8 million cap hit gets a whole lot harder

These are just a handful of options available to them — unlikely as they may be. It seems far more reasonable to assume the Rangers will decide to play it relatively safe and choose to improve at the margins.

They have five pending unrestricted free agents: Alex Wennberg, Jack Roslovic, Blake Wheeler, Erik Gustafsson and Chad Ruhwedel. Lindgren, Kaapo Kakko, and Braden Schneider are all restricted free agents.

Kakko’s future with the Rangers has been a point of speculation for some time now. Considering the team has a little over $11 million in projected cap space, with extensions possibly landing for Igor Shesterkin and Alexis Lafreniere this off-season, he seems a likely roster casualty.

It will be interesting to see what route New York takes, but in the meantime, all we can do is wait and see.

All salary and cap info via CapFriendly.com.