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Oklahoma State football way-too-early, game-by-game predictions for 2024 Cowboys season

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Oklahoma State football way-too-early, game-by-game predictions for 2024 Cowboys season

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STILLWATER — Sportsbooks have low expectations for Oklahoma State in the coming football season.

The BetMGM online sportsbook set OSU’s win total at 7.5 games, matching five other Big 12 teams for the fourth-most projected wins.

Utah, Kansas State and Kansas are all projected to win more, while Texas Tech, Arizona, Iowa State, Central Florida and TCU are also pegged for 7.5 wins.

Looking closer, the Cowboys have the seventh-best odds to win the Big 12 title, behind favorites Utah and Kansas State (each at +350), followed by Kansas, Arizona, Texas Tech and Iowa State. UCF and OSU have the same odds for the title at +1200.

Here are The Oklahoman’s way-too-early picks for every game on the OSU schedule: 

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Aug. 31: vs. South Dakota State, 1 p.m. (ESPN+)

Scott Wright: SDSU went 8-5 in 2019 and 8-2 in the COVID-impacted 2020 season — a respectable winning percentage of 69.6% over two years. That’s what OSU was looking at in 2021 when officials worked to put this game on the books. Not the back-to-back FCS champions with a 29-game winning streak who will come to town for the season opener in August. The Pokes win this game, but fans are right to be a tad nervous. This isn’t your typical lower-division cakewalk. 

Jacob Unruh: I just want to start by saying that this game is going to be hot. I mean, scorching hot. A mid-day kickoff on the final day of August could mean the temperatures coming off the turf will be astronomical. Think the glass thermometer on a cartoon hitting the max spot and then shattering. But, that is likely an advantage for the Pokes, if it can even be labeled that. With Ollie Gordon II and a veteran offensive line eager to prove last season was no fluke, wearing d own South Dakota State will be key in the victory.

Sept. 7: vs. Arkansas, 11 a.m. (ABC)

Wright: Expectations are not high for the Hogs. The same sportsbook that predicted OSU to win 7.5 games has Arkansas at 4.5. Yes, it’s an SEC team with high-level size and strength and talent. But with the first-week rust knocked off, OSU should take care of a double-digit win.

Unruh: It’s been 44 years since the old regional rivals last squared off in a series that began in 1914 and was dominated by the Razorbacks. But the past is the past. Arkansas, even in the SEC, is not a dominant force. The Cowboys are quite a different program now, too. OSU will roll in this one.

Sept. 14: at Tulsa, 11 a.m. (ESPN2)

Wright: Second-year coach Kevin Wilson seems to be doing a lot of things well at Tulsa, but even on the home field, this won’t be easy. It could be the type of game where Ollie Gordon II posts a rushing total that has folks buzzing the rest of the day. Chalk up another W.

Unruh: You and I were there when Chuba Hubbard ran all over H.A. Chapman Stadium. Tulsa has improved since then but that’s not enough. Gordon likely has a huge game. But I’d watch out for Brennan Presley. It’s his final game in his hometown and it’s opposite his little brother Braylin. Expect fireworks in a rout for OSU.

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Sept. 21: vs. Utah

Wright: Welcome to the new Big 12. This could be a preview of the conference title game or it could be the moment that sends one of the league’s contenders down the wrong path. Seems like the former is more likely. But this is a particularly dangerous game for OSU defensive coordinator Bryan Nardo going against an established program with a veteran quarterback. Coach Kyle Wittingham and the Utes will have something special in store for the OSU defense and pull off the win at Boone Pickens Stadium. 

Unruh: Utah quarterback Cameron Rising has played football nearly as long as OSU’s Alan Bowman. But Rising also missed all of last season with a knee injury. What kind of player will he be? At this point, will he regain the form that made him so dynamic in 2022? He’s the kind of quarterback who gives OSU’s defense fits when healthy. I expect the Cowboys’ defense to improve under second-year coordinator Bryan Nardo. But this will be the first big challenge. Give me OSU in a squeaker since the game is in BPS, though I’m not confident in that just yet.

Sept. 28: at Kansas State

Wright: It was against Kansas State last year that OSU turned its season around with the Friday night victory after a 2-2 start. While recent trips to purple purgatory haven’t been friendly to the Cowboys, this team has a different mindset — one that can overcome the struggles of the past in the Little Apple. OSU escapes with a thrilling road win.

Unruh: Memories of that 2022 game in the Little Apple are still on my mind. And this is the second straight game against a Big 12 title contender. OSU isn’t going to come out unscathed in that stretch. Give me the Wildcats, though in a lot closer game than two years ago.

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Oct. 5: vs. West Virginia

Wright: Back at home and coming off a big win, this feels like a spot where the Cowboys might look a little sluggish. But not sluggish like the 2022 West Virginia game. Still lively enough for a win.

Unruh: Not even the return of former receiver Jaden Bray is enough to overpower the Cowboys, who will recover from a disappointing trip to Kansas State in style with a big home win.

Oct. 19: at BYU, 9:15 p.m. (ESPN)

Wright: A Friday night game on a short week against a second-year Big 12 program looking for any opportunity to make a statement about its status in the league. Feels dangerous. The atmosphere will be charged and the Cougars will be out for blood. Hang another L for the Pokes. 

Unruh: I’m with you. This game screams upset in the making. And I think the atmosphere is exactly why it’s a problem. Late night in a packed stadium charged with emotion, give me BYU to hand OSU its second loss of the season.

Oct. 26: at Baylor

Wright: Remember how two years ago, this looked like a potential lynchpin rivalry of the Big 12? Not so much anymore. The extra day will pay off for OSU in the second of back-to-back road games, and the Cowboys will take care of business at McLane Stadium. 

Unruh: I’m old enough to remember when people thought that, Scott. It’s crazy how much this rivalry has lost luster. The two teams did not even play last season. That was a bummer. Now, Baylor has fallen on hard times. And I mean hard times. I’ll take Ollie Gordon II over his former teammate Dominic Richardson in the battle of running backs.

More: How Oklahoma State football’s incoming transfers can impact Cowboys in 2024

Nov. 2: vs. Arizona State

Wright: It’s odd how things work out sometimes. This is the first year for Arizona State in the Big 12, but the third straight year the Sun Devils will have to face OSU. In neither of the last two meetings could ASU find a way to slow down the Cowboy run game. And this is homecoming in Stillwater. Make it three in a row over the Sun Devils. 

Unruh: The third time is the charm, right? Not for the Sun Devils. They’re probably sick of the Cowboys at this point. But they do bring an awesome mascot on road trips, which is always cool.

Nov. 9: at TCU

Wright: Like Kansas State, this is a place where OSU hasn’t had a lot of recent success. The Pokes’ last win in Fort Worth came in 2016. With pressure mounting in the race for the Big 12 title game, this feels like a hiccup scenario for the Cowboys. The Frogs steal a close one. 

Unruh: Man, it really has been since 2016. But I’ll go with the Cowboys in this one. They shed the ghost of Spencer Sanders’ shoulder and pull off a close one, this time sealing it on the final drive and avoiding overtime in a house of horrors.

Nov. 23: vs. Texas Tech

Wright: How wild is this, Alan Bowman gets Senior Day against the program where he began his career seven years ago. And with the Cowboys needing a win to stay in the hunt for the Big 12 title game, it’s a perfect spot for him to turn in a good performance against the Red Raiders, who have changed coaches twice since he signed with Kliff Kingsbury in 2018. The win keeps Cowboy postseason dreams alive.

Unruh: Bowman is definitely throwing for 1,000 yards in this one. Watch out, Red Raiders. In all seriousness, this is a dream scenarior for Bowman. I expect him to take advantage of that with a plethora of options around him, showcasing his growth since leaving Lubbock many years ago. Give the Pokes another dub, as they say.

Nov. 29: at Colorado, 11 a.m. (ABC)

Wright: Here’s hoping Colorado’s season hasn’t gone off the deep end by Thanksgiving weekend, and this game still has some relevance, because it’s hard to envision anything more intriguing than Mike Gundy vs. Deion Sanders in a coaching duel with the entire country watching. Regardless of how good the Buffs are, this is still a Cowboy victory.

Unruh: Mike Gundy. Deion Sanders. The mountains. Gosh, I’m jealous of this trip for you, Scott. Unfortunately, I don’t know that the Buffs will have much left. This win should seal up a spot in the Big 12 championship game for the Cowboys for a second straight year.

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Overall record

Wright: A 9-3 record will have the Cowboys in the mix for the Big 12 title game, and in the hunt for a berth in the new 12-team playoff. The expanded Big 12 is going to be a different kind of challenge than OSU has ever faced. At least for now, there are no weak links in this conference, and every game will feel like a toss-up. But with a veteran squad and an offense that can succeed on the ground or in the air, this is a team that can get back to the Big 12 Championship game for the third time in four years. The biggest key for this team will be the development of the defense in Nardo’s second season.

Unruh: I’m going to remind myself that these are waaaayyyyy too early predictions. I have the Cowboys with a 10-2 record, which certainly means another trip to Arlington and I’d even bet a spot in the expanded playoff field. I’m just not sold on how the defense will ultimately hold up, especially early in conference play. But there is so much experience with this team on both sides of the ball and the offense should score plenty. That’s enough to convince me that Vegas is nowhere close again and the Cowboys are in for a fun fall.

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