Oilers vs. Panthers – Sportsnet.ca

This has the makings of a great Stanley Cup Final. There is no shortage of interesting storylines and the potential for fireworks is off the charts.

Let’s start with the Edmonton Oilers, shall we?

Think back to mid-November after they got off to an improbably awful 2-9-1 start, with a low point being a 3-2 loss to San Jose. Though then-head coach Jay Woodcroft lasted one more game (a win over Seattle), that loss to the Sharks really spelled his end and on November 12 he was let go despite the fact the Oilers had been largely successful under him with a 76-32-12 record and three playoff series wins in two years. A bad stretch of goaltending can sewer anyone.

In came Kris Knoblauch and the Oilers at first slowly started to turn things around then on Nov. 24 they went on an eight-game winning streak that signalled they were all the way back. From the start of that streak through to the end of the regular season, Edmonton’s .727 points percentage (and 44-15-5 record) was the best in the NHL, four points clear of Carolina in a 66-game segment. If any team was going to be able to do it, you bet it was the Oilers. In fact, by getting all the way to the Stanley Cup Final from that start, they have accomplished a historic turnaround.

Now Edmonton has a chance to break a curse and become the first Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup since Patrick Roy and the Montreal Canadiens all the way back in 1993. This is certainly the best chance a Canadian team has had to finish the job since the Vancouver Canucks in 2011.

On the other side are the Florida Panthers, a long irrelevant franchise in the NHL. The Year of the Rat in their Cinderella run to the 1996 Cup Final turned into something of a curse as it took the Panthers 26 years to win another playoff series and they rarely ever even got to the playoffs in the first place. This team, though, has uncovered several gems, brought out the best version of many players and have aggressively worked the trade market to find upgrades and the right fit. How many GMs would feel comfortable trading a 115-point player in his prime (Jonathan Huberdeau) and an excellent point-producing blueliner also in his prime (Mackenzie Weegar) for one Matthew Tkachuk (who himself was coming off a career-high 104-point season)? It was a hefty price that many questioned, but looking back was the turning point that got Florida the right mix to play they way they wanted.

The Panthers got back to the Cup Final last season as an eight seed, but by the time they ran into Vegas, they had been devastated by injuries. Aaron Ekblad had a few injuries, including a broken foot. Tkachuk broke his sternum for crying out loud, while other key players such as Brandon Montour, Sam Bennett and Radko Gudas were shells of themselves. The Panthers limped in and out of an uneventful Cup Final, losing the last game by a devastating 9-3 decision.

Injuries are a fact of life this deep into the playoffs, but the Panthers are looking in peak form and a lot healthier than they were at this time a year ago. Though their conference final series with the Rangers lasted six games, Florida was easily the better team throughout. Their style of play is the epitome of playoff hockey — strong special teams, focused intensity, high-level compete and physicality.

Now we get what should be a wild and long Stanley Cup Final. We haven’t had a seven-game final since 2019 when the Blues beat the Bruins, and before that you have to go back to 2011 to find another seven-gamer. This could be another that stretches the limit, which would leave us handing out the Stanley Cup on June 24.

Here is your 2024 Stanley Cup Final Preview between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers.

OILERS STORYLINES

1. Can Edmonton’s vaunted power play be successful against Panthers’ PK?

Give the Oilers an extra man at your own peril. It’s nothing new that Edmonton’s power play is a primary strength of the team and it finished fourth-best in the league this past regular season. So far through these playoffs, Edmonton’s power play has scored on 37.3 per cent of its opportunities. Against Dallas, who take few penalties, the Oilers’ man advantage scored on four of its 11 chances (36.4 per cent).

Depending on how the officials manage the Stanley Cup Final, Edmonton figures to get more opportunities against a Florida Panthers team that plays far more on the edge than Dallas did. The Panthers were the second-most penalized team in the league this regular season (behind Anaheim) and in the playoffs they have averaged the second-most penalty minutes per game among any team that got into the second round.

However, the Panthers’ penalty kill is no pushover either. In the regular season their PK killed off 82.5 per cent of its chances (sixth in the NHL) and so far in these playoffs that kill rate has jumped to 88.2 per cent — second-best in the league next to…Edmonton (93.9 per cent).

Florida’s power play in the playoffs has been strong (23.3 per cent), but not nearly as potent as Edmonton’s so if you’re looking for an advantage in the underdogs, special teams could be it. This could be the x-factor that tips the scales for Edmonton.

If we look at 5-on-5 play the Oilers and Panthers have very similar goals for per 60 minutes numbers, but Florida’s goals against per 60 (1.76) has been far better than Edmonton’s ability to shut down (2.51).

2. Can Connor McDavid get his Stanley Cup?

Almost all the greats usually end up getting theirs. It took Sidney Crosby four years to get his Stanley Cup, Nathan MacKinnon nine years, and Alex Ovechkin 13. Connor McDavid is in his ninth NHL season today and finally has got to his first Stanley Cup Final.

It would be good for the league and great for Edmonton (and even Canada) for McDavid to be crowned here in 2024 and when the stakes were at the highest they’ve been in his career so far, McDavid wowed with Game 6’s opening goal against Dallas, registered a primary assist on the eventual game-winner, engaged at the defensive end of the rink, and logged over 23 minutes of ice time.

As great as Florida’s defence and goaltending have been so far, slowing down the likes of Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak and Mika Zibanejad, there is only one McDavid. The next couple of weeks will be the biggest moment in his career to date, and so we may be seeing the best version of him yet.

Heck, even if the Panthers can limit McDavid more than we think by focusing defensive efforts against him, they’d still have to account for Leon Draisaitl, an all-time great player in his own right.

3. Stuart Skinner’s ascension

On paper, this would be the first series where you’d expect the Panthers would have the advantage in goal. After Sergei Bobrovsky stared down and beat Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jeremy Swayman and Igor Shesterkin, now the Vezina finalist faces Stuart Skinner who’s never been anywhere near the top of the league’s netminders and had a shaky run of play in Round 2 which forced the Oilers to pull him in Game 3 against Vancouver, and then sit him for Games 4 and 5.

But since Skinner got back into the net he’s been stellar, first by eliminating the Canucks with back-to-back wins in Games 6 and 7 (facing a total of just 32 shots) and then posting a .923 save percentage and a conference final best 1.91 GAA in six games against the Stars. That effort was capped off by a 34-save performance in Game 6 when Edmonton’s offence only generated 10 shots on goal. In allowing just one goal in the clincher, Skinner effectively stole one when the Oilers’ guns weren’t at their best.

The Panthers do well to generate scoring opportunities, sitting third these playoffs in high-danger chances at 5-on-5 and second in shots per 60 minutes of 5-on-5 play. They crash the net and irritate the netminder, to the point where Shesterkin was giving a few blocker punches to their forwards in the conference final. The Panthers will try to distract, get you off your game and are excellent down low with the cycle and creating around the net. It will be a much different attack than what Skinner saw against Dallas, but if he’s up to that challenge and is actually the better goalie in the final, the Oilers could be the ones lifting the Stanley Cup and Skinner would be arriving as a true No. 1.

PANTHERS STORYLINES

1. Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk will be hated in Alberta all over again

These two players were fixtures in the Battle of Alberta for years with Calgary and have established a lot of hate in Edmonton’s fan base from those games. When the two Alberta teams met in a playoff series in 2022, Bennett had already been traded to the Panthers, but Tkachuk opened that series with a hat trick in Calgary’s only win (a crazy 9-6 decision).

In Florida, however, both players have peaked and with a strong showing in the final either could still come out of this with the Conn Smythe Trophy. Tkachuk’s 19 points lead the Panthers in these playoffs, Bennett’s 53 hits lead all Panthers forwards and he’s been caught up in a few controversial plays along the way.

This series figures to be far more heated in terms of physicality and playing on the edge than Edmonton experienced against Dallas, one of the least penalized teams in the league. The Panthers will toe the line and that’s led by Tkachuk and Bennett, who fans in Edmonton are already well acquainted with and will be prepared to “welcome” back in Game 3.

2. Can Sergei Bobrovsky deliver in the Stanley Cup Final this time?

Florida’s run to the Cup Final as an eighth seed last year fell flat once they got there, and big injuries to key players Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad were big factors in that. They seemed out of gas once they got started against Vegas, but it’s a much different feel in 2024. These Panthers are the rightful favourites and coming in hot and (relatively) healthy to the Final.

During last year’s run, Sergei Bobrovsky was phenomenal for the Panthers in three rounds and started the Stanley Cup Final as the team’s top Conn Smythe candidate. In a conference final sweep of Carolina, Bobrovsky allowed just six goals in four games and looked capable of stealing a series if it came down to it.

However, Bobrovsky allowed four goals in Game 1 to Vegas, then another four in less than one-and-a-half-periods in Game 2 before he was pulled. There was even some question if head coach Paul Maurice would sit him in Game 3. Bobrovsky did play and even won that game, but then allowed three and, finally, eight goals against in Games 4 and 5 as the Panthers meekly faded out of the playoffs.

In 2024, Bobrovsky enters the final as one of a few Panthers in consideration for the Conn Smythe again, and just outduelled Shesterkin who was at his absolute best for the Rangers. As mentioned, Florida’s team defence has been one of the best through three rounds so that helps, but if Bobrovsky falls back as he did in the 2023 Cup Final it would suddenly put Florida at an obvious disadvantage.

3. Gustav Forsling the x-factor and Conn Smythe candidate

If you didn’t know much about or appreciate Gustav Forsling’s defensive game before this run, then you surely know all about it now. Forsling is the only Panther to average over 20 minutes of even strength ice time per game in the playoffs, is tied with Ekblad in average PK time per game and regularly is charged to match up against the opponents’ best — Kucherov in Tampa, Pastrnak in Boston and Zibanejad in New York.

Forsling is Florida’s defensive stalwart and because of this, he gets among the fewest offensive zone starts of any player on the roster. But despite starting in his own end so often and facing the other side’s top stars so frequently, when Forsling is on the ice at 5-on-5 the Panthers have controlled nearly 60 per cent of all shot attempts, over 60 per cent of all shots and have outscored their opponents 15-10.

Now the challenge is at its steepest and we figure McDavid will be Forsling’s task at least on home ice, or he could be seeing more of Draisaitl if the Oilers try and work the matchups that way at home. No one shuts down McDavid, not even the Dallas Stars who themselves have an elite defence and saw their top star blueliner Miro Hesikanen look like a third pair slow poke in Game 6’s opening goal.

PLAYOFF TEAM STATS

ADVANCED STATS

Playoff 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick

Who would the Cup get passed to first rankings: Edmonton

1. Leon Draisaitl

The 1B to McDavid’s 1A, Draisaitl could be the face of a franchise on his own and capable of willing a team through if he were The Guy anyplace else. He’ll be entering the final season of his contract in 2024-25 and eligible to sign an extension as early as July 1, which will be an interesting dynamic to play out given McDavid is a year away from being in the same place. But if the Oilers win this thing and McDavid, as the captain, has to decide who to pass it off to first, the other superstar in the lineup would have to top the list.

2. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

He’s been through it with this franchise more than anyone. RNH was the second of four first-overall picks Edmonton made over a six-year period, joining the team right out of junior in 2011. He was part of most of the decade of darkness, had starts and stops early on, and then had an out of nowhere 104-point season in 2022-23. He’s a close second to Draisaitl in this ranking for me and you couldn’t be faulted if you thought RNH would be the first pass off. With 20 points in 18 playoff games this season, RNH is the fourth-highest scorer on the team and those painful years are finally paying off.

3. Darnell Nurse

There are a few great candidates for this third spot in the ranking, including Mattias Ekholm and Zach Hyman, but Nurse in his ninth season as an Oiler and has been here longer than any of them. We should also consider that Nurse has taken a ton of flak during most of this run because his on-ice numbers have been so unflattering (Edmonton has been outscored 21-9 when he’s been on the ice at 5-on-5). But the Oilers, and McDavid especially, have made it a point to stand up for Nurse when asked about the player. “He’s a big piece of our room,” McDavid said during the conference final. “He gives us everything he’s got and he always has for a long time.” That support could extend further if they win the Cup and McDavid chooses to go to Nurse first.

Who would the Cup get passed to first rankings: Florida

1. Aaron Ekblad

In 2013 the Panthers selected their captain, Aleksander Barkov, second overall and the next season they landed Ekblad with the first overall pick. Both players joined the NHL club right after being picked and they are the two longest-serving players on this team. They have been through some things together. There was the surprising divisional title in 2016 and the crushing disappointment of the opening-round loss when John Tavares stuck the dagger in Game 6 OT. It took four years for them to get back to the playoffs, only to be eliminated in the qualifying round of the bubble year, again by the Islanders. In 2022 they turned a corner, won their first Presidents’ Trophy, earned the franchise’s first post-season series victory since 1996 — and then got hammered by rival Tampa in four games. So these past two years have been something special for the pair, and it’s hard to see Barkov going to anyone else with the Cup before Ekblad.

2. Sergei Bobrovsky

If there were another player to consider, it might be Bobrovsky, who has been the highest paid player on this team since signing as an unrestricted free agent in 2019. At first, that signing looked like it was going to be a disaster, as Bobrovsky had near career-low numbers for the first two seasons of the contract and his post-season play was often even worse. So, as Bobrovsky was getting towards his mid-30s, it looked like the age decline had already set in. Now 35, Bobrovsky has been stellar for a couple of years and is a Vezina Trophy finalist again in 2024.

3. Kyle Okposo

For the third choice, there are really lots of contenders. Might it be Tkachuk, whose trade to Florida was a key turning point for the franchise? Might Sam Bennett get some attention, for how he always delivers in the post-season. How about Sam Reinhart, who had an amazing 57-goal season and staring down a choice whether to test unrestricted free agency or not? Or how about Forsling, the underrated shutdown defender? This deep we’ll go with a wild card in Kyle Okposo. Sometimes the first guy to get the Stanley Cup pass off is a grizzled veteran who’s played for years in the league with little to no success and finally reaches the peak at or near the end. Okposo, 36, is in his 16th full NHL season, mostly spent with the Islanders and Sabres. Prior to this season, he had played in just 24 Stanley Cup Playoff games and none since 2016.

SCHEDULE

Game 1, EDM @ FLA: Saturday, June 8, 8 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. MT (Sportsnet/CBC)

Game 2, EDM @ FLA: Monday, June 10, 8 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. MT (Sportsnet/CBC)

Game 3 FLA @ EDM: Thursday, June 13, 8 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. MT (Sportsnet/CBC)

Game 4 FLA @ EDM: Saturday, June 15, 8 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. MT (Sportsnet/CBC)

*Game 5 EDM @ FLA: Tuesday, June 18, 8 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. MT (Sportsnet/CBC)

*Game 6 FLA @ EDM: Friday, June 21, 8 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. MT (Sportsnet/CBC)

*Game 7 EDM @ FLA: Monday, June 24, 8 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. MT (Sportsnet/CBC)

*To be played if necessary.