Oilers and Leon Draisaitl Destined for Split

The Edmonton Oilers almost pulled off the greatest comeback in Stanley Cup Finals history. Forcing a game 7 after being down 3-0 in the series was incredible, but they ultimately came up one game short. Heading into 2024-2025, the Oilers are looking to finish the job.

They’ve added some critical depth scoring options by bringing in veterans Viktor Arvidsson and Jeff Skinner. The defense and goaltending are largely the same, barring any major changes before the season.

The biggest remaining question for the Oilers is Leon Draisaitl. The German superstar is entering the final season of an eight-year deal he signed in 2017 with an average annual value of $8.5 million. In that time, he’s far exceeded the terms of their arrangement. Since the 2017-2018 season, Draisaitl ranks second behind only Connor McDavid in points with 713. He has five 100+ point seasons in the past six seasons and six straight years of 30 or more goals. Playing in the shadow of his teammate hasn’t stopped him from asserting himself as one of the game’s best players.

If anything, it’s made Draisaitl more valuable. He took a hometown discount in 2017 but is unlikely to do it again. McDavid’s contract pays him $12.5 million and Nathan Mackinnon’s pays him $12.6 million. Draisaitl has been as productive and makes $4 million less. The Oilers won’t exceed McDavid’s cap hit if they agree on an extension, so it’s unknown what their upper limit is with Draisaitl.

There are 35 players with higher cap hits than Draisaitl. None of them have recorded more points or collected more individual awards. Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks makes $11.6 million after signing a contract extension this past season. In the past three seasons, he’s recorded point totals of 89, 102, and 68. Right below him on the list is William Nylander of the Toronto Maple Leafs, at $11.5 million. He’s recorded 98, 87, and 80-point seasons over the past three campaigns.

With this information, Draisaitl’s camp should justifiably seek a higher salary than anyone not named McDavid or Mackinnon. The Oilers also know this and want to keep their second superstar in town. The problem is that they are over the salary cap limit for this season and still have restricted free agent Philip Broberg to re-sign.

The cap troubles don’t end after this season either. In addition to Draisaitl, the team also has to extend their top defenseman, Evan Bouchard. Where will the salary cap space come from? McDavid, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and Evander Kane are under contract through the 2025-2026 season at $5 million or higher. Darnell Nurse and Mattias Ekhom make a combined $15.25 million through the end of next season as well. That’s roughly $40 million invested in six players who have a combined zero championships. With limited salary cap resources the Oilers will struggle to maintain their Stanley Cup ambitions and the happiness of their core players.

That leaves Draisaitl in a precarious position. He can take less than his market value and worth to help the Oilers stay in the championship hunt. He can also stand firm and make the Oilers pay him a fair contract or move on and sign a mega-deal elsewhere. Whatever strategy the team pursues, it seems unavoidable that Leon Draisaitl will not be with the Oilers after the 2024-2025 season.

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