Ohio Derby fair odds: Best bet of weekend is at Thistledown

No surprise that the Louisiana Derby winner who was fourth in the Kentucky Derby and third in the Preakness Stakes would be the most likely winner of a Grade 3 at Jack Thistledown, but Catching Freedom is very unlikely to be anywhere close to my fair odds of 2-1 for the Ohio Derby.

That means there is value elsewhere, and it unquestionably resides with Copper Tax, a colt I liked a bit in the Preakness Stakes had he gone that direction. I did not get to bet him that day, but I’ll take my shot with him Saturday near Cleveland.

Copper Tax is 4-for-4 in listed stakes but winless in two graded tries, beaten by a combined 33 lengths. Given that, it is fair to question how he fits with the likes of Grade 2 winner and classic-placed Catching Freedom. But he has improved as a 3-year-old and sports a win at this 1 1/8-mile distance.

Another wild card in here is Batten Down, who looked ultra-impressive winning a 1 1/4-mile maiden race Derby week at Churchill Downs. But this is a stiff test off a maiden win, and although the sky appears to be the limit given he is by Tapit out of Close Hatches, I’m inclined to let him beat me at a shortish price. Horse Racing Nation‘s AI-generated projected odds line has Batten Down as the 3-1 second choice with Catching Freedom the even-money favorite and Copper Tax the 6-1 third choice.

Trainer Brad Cox made a shrewd move bringing Catching Freedom back in the Ohio Derby, as one thing the deep closer will not have to worry about is how the track will play. Using HRN‘s Track Trends Tool, handicappers can clearly see that closers are not compromised in two-turn races at Thistledown.

Uncle Heavy is not impossible here. HRN projects his price to be 11-1, which is value against my 6-1 fair-odds line. He is a deep closer, too, and I’m not sure he can beat Catching Freedom given the general lack of pace. But the value should be there over horses such as Batten Down and Gould’s Gold, who is likely to attract money given connections of Ken McPeek and Brian Hernandez Jr., winners of the Kentucky Oaks and Derby.

I will be looking to bet Copper Tax to win and keying with Catching Freedom if Gould’s Gold and Batten Down are among the top four choices, as well as Uncle Heavy if he is not a top three choice.