Offseason Checklist: Edmonton Oilers

After this year’s Stanley Cup champion was crowned, the offseason has arrived for everyone. It’s time to examine what teams will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at the Oilers.

A horrid 3-9-1 start to the season had the Oilers in dangerous territory in November, leading them to be the first team to make an in-season coaching change. They were raucous after replacing Jay Woodcroft with Kris Knoblauch behind the bench, rebounding to go 46-18-5 the rest of the way and finishing second in the Pacific Division with 104 points. Their star-studded roster got within one goal of their first Stanley Cup since 1990 but ultimately fell short in an incredible 2024 Stanley Cup Final that saw them erase a 3-0 series deficit to force a Game 7. Now, the focus quickly turns to next season, with the draft and free agency less than a week away.

Find Holland’s Successor

The 2024 NHL Draft is in just three days, but the Oilers won’t have a full-time general manager at the table, it seems. Ken Holland’s contract is up and he won’t be returning in the role next season, as he’s headed for something between pseudo-retirement and full retirement. There’s a sense Holland may still remain affiliated with Edmonton in 2024-25, but it won’t be as GM, TSN’s Darren Dreger reports.

That leaves Edmonton with some choices to make, both short-term and long-term. In terms of who will run the draft on Friday night and Saturday morning, that’ll likely fall on the shoulders of assistant GMs Keith Gretzky, Brad Holland and Bill Scott. Director of Amateur Scouting Bill Pracey and Chief Amateur Scout Bob Green will also likely have more increased responsibility than normal. One thing is for sure, though – Ken Holland won’t be on the floor in his former capacity.

They haven’t been linked to any external GM candidates yet, but they’ll need to conduct a search. Brad Holland, who holds a director of professional scouting specification under his AGM title, seems to be the likeliest candidate to take over as the de facto interim GM when free agency begins if Edmonton doesn’t name a permanent replacement in the next week.

Draisaitl Extension Talks

German superstar Leon Draisaitl has more than solidified himself as a top-five forward in the league, giving the Oilers a one-two punch down the middle only rivaled by the prime of the Penguins’ Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin in recent memory. He’s done so on an absolute steal of an $8.5MM cap hit that’s served them well over the last seven seasons, but he’s now hurtling toward unrestricted free agency in 2025 and will require a hefty raise.

It doesn’t help that his deal is expiring at a time when the salary cap is seeing hefty 5% raises annually, and the top end of skater contracts is seemingly moving north every summer. As Chris Johnston pointed out in his latest for The Athletic, Draisaitl is surely in line to at least match or exceed the $13.25MM cap hit that’s kicking in for Leafs star Auston Matthews next season. That would at least temporarily have him eclipse Connor McDavid as Edmonton’s highest-paid player. Is that something the organization is comfortable with?

We’ll find out soon enough. If Draisaitl signs an extension for the same cap hit percentage as Matthews, 15.87%, that would work out to $13.97MM per season with an $88MM upper limit. Evolving Hockey has a slightly more conservative extension projection for Draisaitl at eight years with a $13.54MM cap hit. It would still give him the largest cap hit in the league for a brief period of time – he’d surely be eclipsed by McDavid when his deal runs out in 2026.

Getting cost certainty on Draisaitl long-term is necessary for the Oilers’ planning this summer as they look to make commitments in free agency and offload some bloated deals. They’re likely not very comfortable with extension discussions drawing out into the season, either – letting him potentially walk for nothing next summer isn’t something they’re even entertaining, per Johnston.

Replenish Scoring Depth

The Oilers have a bevy of forwards who were regulars in postseason play hitting free agency this summer, headlined by 20-goal man Warren Foegele and trade deadline pickup Adam Henrique. Their penalty-killing duo of Connor Brown and Mattias Janmark, who had a strong playoff and an incredible breakthrough Cup Final against Florida, are also both up.

As it stands, four forwards who spent most or all of last season in the AHL (Xavier Bourgault, James Hamblin, Raphael Lavoie, Lane Pederson) are slated for their 2024-25 opening night lineup if they don’t sign any UFAs. That’s not a realistic scenario. Anyone who can be had for a relatively affordable price will likely brought back – after all, their scoring behind McDavid, Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and company was strong enough to get them oh-so-close to a championship. Foegele especially was a crucial depth piece throughout the season, not just the playoffs, with his career-high 41 points.

But with only just over $10MM in projected cap space with nine open roster spots, that’s going to be an extremely tough ask. Money will need to be moved out no matter who they retain, which brings us to our next point…

Offload Campbell

Ridding themselves of or significantly reducing Jack Campbell’s $5MM cap hit is a much higher priority for Edmonton than its fourth-item placing in this article indicates. He’s taking up nearly 6% of their cap space and still costs $3.85MM when buried in the minors. While he did have a strong campaign in AHL Bakersfield, posting a .918 SV% in 33 games, the uncertainty of what you’re getting from him if you promote him back to the NHL is simply too great to stomach for a championship-caliber, cap-strapped team like Edmonton.

Whether that’s a trade or a buyout remains to be seen. He does have some trade protection, but a 10-team no-trade list isn’t absurdly difficult to deal with. A buyout would reduce his cap hit to $1.1MM next season, saving them $2.75MM in cap space compared to burying him in the minors. That’s enough for a pair of serviceable depth scorers in free agency.

Campbell had a .873 SV% in five NHL appearances to begin the season before being waived and sent to Bakersfield, where he spent the rest of the campaign. They would still need to find a backup for Stuart Skinner if they buy Campbell out or move him, but that can be done for a league-minimum contract (or close to it).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.