Novak Djokovic could be about to fall to No 3 in tennis rankings he endorses

It is a rankings system that provides a more immediate reflection of form in the current state of play at the top of the game and that may be why Novak Djokovic is set for another fall.

Djokovic’s long reign as world No 1 in the ATP Rankings looks set to end in the next few weeks, with anything less than a victory at the French Open likely to result in his demotion behind Jannik Sinner in the updated rankings.

With the 2,000 points Djokovic collected for his win at Roland Garros last year dropping off his ranking ahead this year’s tournament, Sinner is comfortably ahead in the live rankings that reflect how the rankings would look without points from the French Open.

Sinner may get a chance to confirm his rise to world No 1 for the first time in his career on court at Roland Garros, but he could also claim the prize if an out-of-form Djokovic suffers an early defeat in Paris.

Yet his fall from the No 1 ranking has already taken place in the UTR Rankings, which Djokovic has endorsed.

The UTR Rating, also known as the Universal Tennis Rating, was created by UTR Sports (formerly known as Universal Tennis) as a global rating system that promotes fair and competitive play across the tennis world.

All players, regardless of age, gender, geography, or skill level, are rated on the same scale between 1.00 and 16.50 based on actual match results.

The UTR number is displayed on tennis player profiles for singles and doubles players and investors and partners include Djokovic, Team8, Tennis Channel, Tennis Australia, Amazon Prime, and more.

The first factor is the UTR Rating difference between opponent and the second factor is the competitiveness of the match, as determined by the percentage of total games won.

Given the UTR Rating difference, the algorithm expects a certain percentage of total games won.

The player who performs better than the algorithm’s expectation will see their match rating go up while the other player’s match rating will go down. When one player’s match rating increases, the other player’s match rating decreases by the same amount.

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Sinner ousted Djokovic at the top of the UTR Rankings at the start of 2024 and now there is a real threat that Carlos Alcaraz could also leap above the Serbian legend and into second place on the list.

Alcaraz’s trending rating for the last three months confirms he is gaining ground on Djokovic and a strong run at the French Open couple with more indifferent form for Djokovic could see the duo switch places in the rankings.

Casper Ruud is at No 4 in the UTR Rating with Daniil Medvedev at No 5 and the in-form Alexander Zverev in line for a leap up the rankings if his sparkling form continues at the French Open.

The big movement in the UTR Rankings will come at the back end of the second Grand Slam of the year, as matches between the game’s top players are all important in evaluating this rating.

There may be some uncertainty around the men’s UTR Rating, but Iga Swiatek is in a league of her own in the live women’s UTR Ranking.

After winning the Madrid and Rome WTA 1000 titles, Swiatek is comfortably ahead at the top of the UTR list.

Yet WTA No 2 Aryna Sabalenka is down in third place behind UTR No 2 Elena Rybakina. 

Resurgent American star Danielle Collins has just broken back into the top ten of the WTA Rankings are her thrilling form in recent months, yet the more reactive UTR Ranking has her position at No 4 and that may be a more accurate reflection of her current form.