NHL offseason dominoes: The impact of potential Marner, Stamkos, Draisaitl moves

The NHL offseason has more suspense than a Benoit Blanc mystery.

Every small trade could lead to bigger things. Every player who reaches free agency could stay or go — and if they go, they’re taking someone else’s roster spot that’s now seeking a new home.

But there are some transactions that can literally reshape the landscape for trades or free agency. These are the falling dominoes we’re all waiting to hear, leading to elaborate reactions from across the NHL to their magnitude.

Here are four scenarios involving superstar players that could reverberate all summer and into future offseasons. We’re not saying they’re going to happen, but we’ll explain why they could happen. And if they do? Buckle up.

There’s a part of me that wonders if the things that didn’t happen at the NHL trade deadline were like a trailer for the feature presentation of the offseason.

Already we’ve seen Linus Ullmark traded to the Ottawa Senators and Jacob Markstrom traded to the New Jersey Devils, two moves that were heavily rumored — and potentially rejected — at the deadline. Remember when everyone thought Elias Lindholm was going to end up on the Boston Bruins? They still have a need at center. Then there’s the other great “what if” of the deadline: Jake Guentzel to the Rangers.

The Rangers were in on the then-Pittsburgh Penguins star winger before the Carolina Hurricanes swooped in and made a deal for him. New York pivoted to a Plan B for a top-line winger, acquiring Jack Roslovic from the Columbus Blue Jackets in a deal that worked until it didn’t.

Their duo of Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad have needed a winger since Pavel Buchnevich was traded in 2021. If we’ve really being honest, they haven’t clicked super well with anyone since Mats Zuccarello was sent to Dallas in 2019.

Zibanejad has talked about wanting a winger that’s more of a playmaker than a sniper. The beauty of Guentzel is that he’s both.

Obviously, the fit isn’t the issue. The salary cap is. To make Guentzel work — and resign restricted free agents like Braden Schneider and Ryan Lindgren — the Rangers will have to trade captain Jacob Trouba. His no-movement clause becomes a 16-team no-trade clause on July 1. Find a taker, eat some salary from his $8 million AAV if necessary and bring in Guentzel.

If the Rangers sign Guentzel, it means the Hurricanes did not retain him. Perhaps that increases the likelihood that an arbitration-eligible Martin Necas sticks around for another season.

If the Rangers sign Guentzel, it might also mean that they don’t sign Patrick Kane, who spent part of the 2022-23 season with New York before undergoing hip surgery and reclaiming his mantle as an offensive force in Detroit.

And if Kane doesn’t return to New York, what about finding a spot with the Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers, who have had interest in the past and have over $19.5 million in open cap space this summer? That’s a possibility, but would they offer term?

You know who might be able to offer some term? The Washington Capitals.

Kevin Weekes reported in 2022 that the Capitals were on Patrick Kane’s accepted destination trade list, along with the Rangers, who eventually acquired him. Washington is clearly still in a competitive mode as Alex Ovechkin chases Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals record, swinging that blockbuster trade for Pierre Luc-Dubois last week. They’ve sought to add veteran scoring on the wing previously in a player like Max Pacioretty. It’s an area of need and Kane could fill it.

The Capitals have some cap space, but need to use a bit of it on center Connor McMichael and potentially a veteran goaltender. Fitting in Kane would be as easy as L-T-I-R, which is where they could stash T.J. Oshie and open up his $5.75 million AAV space. That’s more than enough for Kane, who made $2.75 million AAV in Detroit last season. Oshie’s contract comes off the books after next season.

His stuff is there. So is his heart. Many expect the Lightning and their captain will figure out something to keep him in Champa Bay, as this core believes it has another run left in it. But that run is contingent on having the financial flexibility to build a roster to compete with the likes of the Panthers, and therein lies the challenge for Stamkos: Stay at the rate GM Julien BriseBois claims he has to pay him, or seek untold riches as an unrestricted free agent?

He’s flirted with free agency before, of course, in 2016. But the Stamkos Sweepstakes never materialized, as he signed an eight-year extension two days before the start of free agency.

Some in the NHL believe he’ll at least take a glance to see how green the grass is in other NHL cities. Worst case scenario, he’ll have a better sense of his value vis-à-vis the Lightning offer. Best case scenario, Stamkos finds a blockbuster contract with a contending team.

Where could he end up? The Red Wings perked up some ears when they recently cleared cap space, give the history between Stamkos and GM Steve Yzerman. The Bruins have a glaring need at center. There’s always going to be speculation about going home to the Toronto Maple Leafs — although if he’s chasing a Cup…

Would he consider the Western Conference, and a team like the Dallas Stars, Colorado Avalanche, Nashville Predators or a Utah Hockey Club that wouldn’t mind making a star play splash in Year 1? Not many players at his age and experience are looking to increase their flying time and be away from the family if they can avoid it.

Let’s face it: There’s only one team other than Tampa Bay that offers proximity and the chance to compete for the Stanley Cup. And that’s the team that just won it.

Stamkos to the Florida Panthers would, of course, break the hearts (and the minds) of thousands of Tampa Bay Lightning fans. It would be interesting to see if it were deemed a John Tavares level of betrayal, or if management would get the grief for nickel-and-diming him. In either scenario, it would be the accelerant for what’s already one of the NHL’s nastiest rivalries.

The only situation where this makes sense is if there’s a change on left wing for the Panthers. Sam Reinhart is an unrestricted free agent. He’d like to stay and the Panthers would like to keep him with Aleksander Barkov. But if he leaves … well, they’ll need a new scoring winger.

Carter Verhaeghe is one year away from unrestricted free agency and has a load of value as a trade option. If defenseman Brandon Montour leaves as a free agent, what about shipping out Verhaeghe for a puck-moving power-play ace and then signing Stamkos to play with Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk?

We’re sure Oliver Ekman-Larsson wouldn’t mind giving up No. 91, assuming he re-signs too.

The most unpredictable thing in the NHL is the Golden Knights front office after a playoff disappointment. That’s where loyalty and sentimentality are summarily ignored in favor of improvements by any means necessary. GM Kelly McCrimmon is a fearless big-name hunter, looking both in the short term and the long term.

Mitch Marner is going to be traded. Or not. Or maybe he’s gone. Or re-signing.

The Marner conjecture changes by the day, with reports ranging from the star winger being shopped to GM Brad Treliving favoring an extension ahead of next summer’s unrestricted free agency rather than trading him away.

The problem with trading Marner is that you have to find someone will to take on his current $10.903 million AAV contract now and bump his salary up on his next contract. That raise looks different in a place with state income taxes, which Nevada doesn’t have, as you might have heard a time or 10 from your Canadian friends.

Marner obviously fits the organizational philosophy of the Knights in that he’s a 200-foot player and one of the best defensive wingers in the NHL. Leaning a thing or two from Mark Stone could only improve that. Offensively, he’d anchor a second scoring line behind Jack Eichel, or allow Bruce Cassidy to play a little “McDavid and Draisaitl” by having them take shifts together when necessary.

The only thing that doesn’t make sense would be adding Mitch Marner as a panacea for playoff disappointment, but that was likely true wherever he goes.

As a trade partner, Vegas makes too much sense for the Leafs. If they deal Marner, it’s not for picks — it’s a hockey trade, to give Auston Matthews, William Nylander and the remaining members a contending team. The conversation starts with goalie Logan Thompson, addressing a vital need and a player that has a cap hit of just $766,667. It likely continues with defenseman Shea Theodore, who has one more year ($5.2 million AAV) left on his deal before unrestricted free agency. He’s only 28 and if the Leafs can get him signed to an extension, that bolsters their blue line in a major way.

Taking Marner’s salary off the cap would allow the Leafs at least another $5 million in cap space to seek a replacement on right wing. While players like Guentzel and Stamkos might be out of range, someone like Andrew Mangiapane of the Calgary Flames wouldn’t be — and Treliving knows him well.

It’s hard to imagine Marner’s personality joining the Borg Collective that are the Vegas Golden Knights, but then again, we said the same thing about happy-go-lucky Tomas Hertl too before his assimilation this spring.

It took about 24 hours after the last teardrop was mopped up in the Edmonton Oilers dressing room after Game 7 for the hockey world to turn its attention to Leon Draisaitl and the last year of his contract.

Offshore sportsbooks were sending out odds on his next team. Canadian media was speculating about the economic viability of the Oilers committing around $30 million per season to two players. Draisaitl was asked about it on Oilers locker breakdown day and said it was going to take time to figure things out — but that “I love being an Oiler more than anything.”

Maybe he re-signs this summer to end the drama. Maybe he waits into the season like David Pastrnak did when he signed his eight-year extension with the Boston Bruins. Or maybe he decides it’s time to move on, grab the entire spotlight somewhere else and secure an NHL history-making bag.

That would, of course, be crushing for Connor McDavid, whose own contract is up after the 2025-26 season, setting Edmonton fans up for a disappointment the size of 10,000 Gretzky trades.

One doesn’t have to go far to find a situation where a player clearly communicates his future plans one year before free agency and the team has to act fast. Matthew Tkachuk told the Calgary Flames that he didn’t want to sign a long-term deal and they traded him to the Florida Panthers in a summer blockbuster in 2022. The Panthers made the Stanley Cup Final twice with Tkachuk, winning once. Calgary is on the precipice of a rebuild. And so it goes.

If Draisaitl made the same proclamation, then the Oilers could either run it back with Connor and Leon for one last playoff run or get proactive about trading him now.

Let’s say it’s the latter. The Boston Bruins have always been whispered about being a Draisaitl preference. There’s always been speculation in hockey circles that Draisaitl could end up with the San Jose Sharks and German-born owner Hasso Plattner, but they’re a bit far away from contention.

What about the Red Wings? Now we’re cookin’. It’s a team seeking to level up by any means necessary. It’s a team getting it’s salary cap situation in order for … something, although there’s speculation it could be for a goaltender. It’s a team that could easily make Draisaitl the centerpiece of the organization, with young talents like Lucas Raymond, Marco Kasper and Nate Danielson on the way.

The conversation starts with Dylan Larkin, who has full trade-protection but not a no-movement clause. That’s your replacement at center for Leon. The Oilers are going to want something the bolster their back end. Is it blasphemy to include Moritz Seider? Not for Draisaitl it isn’t.

That’s the starting point. Heck, they can even call on GM Ken Holland for one more act of championship team building by negotiating a blockbuster with GM Steve Yzerman, for whom he served as a mentor.

It would be a blockbuster that would shift the power in the Eastern Conference over the next decade. Many dominoes would fall. It’s anyone’s guess in what direction.