NHL free-agent deep dive: Analyzing the top defensemen available

Free-agency season is upon us, and so it’s time to look at the numbers behind the names.

The venerable Chris Johnston went through the top 50 names on the board last week. Now we’re going to dig a little deeper into how good each player is projected to be, how he’s expected to age and, most importantly, how much he should be paid.

Previously, I created this basic guide to how much players should be generally paid based on role, but each case obviously demands more specificity. No two players are equal. That’s what these breakdowns are all about, with a look at the top free agents’ projected Net Rating and what their salary should be because of it.

Net Rating is far from infallible, but it’s a strong starting point for figuring out what to make of this year’s free-agent class.

For easier comparison (and comprehension), I’ve created four lists separated by position. Below, you’ll find the top defensemen available this summer.

Brandon Montour is probably the best defenseman available in free agency and may justifiably command the highest salary as a result. That would’ve been difficult to imagine when he was traded from Buffalo a few years ago, but in Florida, he’s capably rebuilt his game toward becoming the team’s No. 1 offensive option. He handles second-pair duty well and holds his own despite rarely having a capable partner. He can drive his own pair and has been a force in back-to-back Stanley Cup Final runs for the Panthers. This year, he was especially good, putting up 56 percent of the expected goals and 59 percent of the goals heading into the Final against the Edmonton Oilers.

Montour is good, but is he $7 million good? That depends on whether he can regain some of his scoring form from 2022-23. It was no shock that he couldn’t replicate 73 points, but a 41-point pace felt like too much of a pull-back, given that he was still the team’s top power-play option. We expect something in the middle at 58 points.

But that also depends on whether he’ll still be a top power-play option. That might not be the case on his new team, and if he does end up taking a back seat there, his value would take a hit. He’d be rated closer to a $6 million defenseman, with term being a deciding factor as well. Evolving Hockey projects Montour’s most-likely deal to be a short-term one: three or four years at around $6.5 million to $7.0 million. That feels palatable with less risk. He should be able to live up to that.

It’s worth noting, though, that while he drives offense, he isn’t actually a very strong puck-mover in his own zone. According to data tracked by Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones project, Montour exits the zone with control at a below-average volume and rate. His biggest asset is his ability to lead the rush and create chances with his shot. There’s a place for that, and it’s worked well in Florida, but that may not be a fit with other teams. His new role will go a long way toward him living up to a big, new deal.

Can you name 35 to 40 better defensemen than Brady Skjei? That’s the question to be asked for a team about to pay him $7 million per season, as that’s the expected rate for a non-elite, top-pair defenseman (i.e., excluding the franchise guys, the top 16 from the top 64). That’s currently where the model ranks him, but there’s plenty of room for debate there.

Pricey? Yes. Immediate sticker shock for Skjei? Also yes. Is he worth it? I truly don’t know and I would be scared to give him that.

Skjei is a good defensemen. He struggled playing very tough minutes in New York, but he finally figured it out in Carolina. He’s been impressive there every season and has earned strong results as a key cog in the team’s vaunted top four. In four full seasons with the Hurricanes, Skjei has been on the ice for 54 percent of the goals and expected goals while taking on tough minutes. He’s also scored at a 12-goal, 37-point pace, which is an added bonus. He feels like someone who can command charge on a second pair behind a lead back.

But it still feels like a risky deal to make, with a question of whether he’s a product of Carolina’s system, or even his partner Brett Pesce. It’s also a question of whether he would have more puck-moving prowess somewhere else, or if his preference for clearing it is something that will carry over.

Skjei falls into a similar category as Montour — they’re both luxury assets on a second pair, but there’s a lot of volatility attached to their names considering they struggled with previous franchises. That creates risk regarding whether they can live up to big money. Term is obviously a big deal for two 30-year-olds as well. Even on a four-year deal, though, Skjei’s average value according to the model falls under $7 million.

He’s grown on me over the year,s and his ability to score from range is a nice luxury to have from the back end. But it does feel like there’s more downside risk for any non-Carolina team signing him. We know he works there — anywhere else is tougher to gauge.

Over the last few seasons, Matt Roy has developed into a defensive rock for the Kings. Los Angeles has grown into one of the league’s best defensive teams in recent years and Roy is a big part of that in their top four. Over the last two seasons, the team has earned 0.25 more expected goals per 60 with Roy on the ice, and he has allowed just 2.26 expected goals against per 60. Last season, the Kings earned 57 percent of the goals and expected goals with Roy on the ice. That was while sharing tough-minute responsibilities with the top pair. Drew Doughty’s pair played more difficult minutes, yes, but the difference wasn’t big.

Roy ended up with a plus-4 Defensive Rating on the season, which is right in line with his projection for next season. It’s also the 12th-highest mark in the league among defensemen, sandwiched between Chris Tanev and Esa Lindell. He’s a strong shutdown type who can eat minutes — while not being a drag offensively, either. It’s worth mentioning that while the Kings faltered over the last two playoffs against the Oilers, Roy was far from a problem there. His goal and expected goal rates were above 50 percent both years. To do that against a steady diet of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl isn’t easy.

Some may balk at a potential $6 million price tag, especially considering he’s 29. But Roy has been a sneaky good top-four option for the Kings. He can play on a top pair and bring out the best in an offensive No. 1.

Brett Pesce

Most of the things said about Skjei apply here to Brett Pesce, though Pesce isn’t quite as offensively gifted. Carolina defenders are very tough to get a read on because it’s difficult to know what they’ll be capable of in a different system. The Hurricanes seem to play an entirely different sport, so it’s hard to comment on whether Pesce is an actually poor puck-mover or if that’s by design. He is great at defending the rush and still great defensively in general, enough to be on the ice for 55 percent of the expected goals last season. His absence during the playoffs was felt greatly.

There’s a right price to be paid for his services, and they entirely depend on term. He’s probably a $5 million defenseman now, but how long will that be true as he enters his 30s? That’s the risk when assessing how long his contract will be. Short and sweet is ideal, with $5.2 million over four years being a sweet spot. Anything more, by cash or length, could be problematic.

Chris Tanev

Everyone loves Chris Tanev, and in the playoffs he showed exactly why. He was a shutdown force against Vegas and Colorado and held his own against Edmonton. Despite taking on the toughest minutes in the playoffs (his opponents had an average Offensive Rating of plus-6.2), Tanev stood firm, earning 55 percent of the expected goals while outscoring opponents 13-10. The Stars allowed just 1.61 goals against per 60 in his minutes.

That’s always been Tanev’s game, and it’s aided by his incredible ability to get to pucks and get them out cleanly. He’s heavily involved in retrievals and exits, and is highly efficient, too. Tanev exited with control 61 percent of the time last season, one of the best marks in the league. Very few retrieve as many pucks as he does, at 29.9 per 60. If the term is short, he’s definitely worth $4.5 million or $5 million.

Tanev is perfect, but at 34, there is a risk of his game dropping off at any moment. That does drive down the price (he’d be worth $5.7 million with no age adjustment), especially depending on how long the contract is. Finding the right length is key.

For those who strike out on Roy or Tanev, Dylan DeMelo represents a solid, younger backup plan. He’s a strong No. 2 option who prioritizes defense and is an asset for clean responsible breakouts. DeMelo’s ability to exit zones with control is on par with Tanev’s. He’s the type of guy you pair with a stud and don’t think twice about.

DeMelo has taken on tougher minutes more consistently on the top pair with Josh Morrissey over the last two seasons, and the duo has looked very strong. Morrissey is the one who drives the bus, but DeMelo is a no-nonsense partner who allows Morrissey to shine. He’s a valuable No. 2 defenseman in that regard, and over the last two seasons he has earned 54 percent of the expected goals and 59 percent of the goals.

Last season, Demelo’s Offensive and Defensive Ratings were both plus-3.9. We’re exercising more caution with our projection, but that speaks to the kind of value he can bring. He should have no problem living up to $4 million or $5 million annually.

There might not be a more fascinating defenseman on the market than Nikita Zadorov, whose rumored contract asks look like a disaster waiting to happen. For someone who plays a third-pair role, his on-ice results are extremely uninspiring. With the Vancouver Canucks, he was on for just 47 percent of the expected goals, well below the team average and well below what a defenseman who makes $5 million or $6 million can do.

That’s top-pair money and Zadorov simply doesn’t have the results to back it up. His Net Rating of minus-1.6 last year is right in line with his current projected value, which is third-pair caliber.

Watch him play and dig into more granular data, and you start to see where Zadorov’s inflated confidence of being much more than that stems from.

Zadorov is 6-foot-6 and 248 pounds — a man mountain who can impose his will, making him an asset defending the rush. In each of the last three seasons, he’s defended at or above 50 percent of entries, a strong mark. Perhaps more surprising is his puck-moving ability. His exit volume was very high last season and he did so with control 56 percent of the time. He was even better last season, too, and was also strong retrieving pucks. But that’s not all. Zadorov also does a strong job joining the rush, doing so frequently and providing a major boost to the team’s offense. According to Sznajder’s tracking, Zadorov looks like a difference-maker in several key possession-driving areas.

It’s difficult to reconcile why his on-ice numbers aren’t stronger and why he’s rarely trusted in a top-four role when he looks like he can do a whole lot more than you’d expect with the puck for a man of his size. It’s easier to make possession-driving plays lower in the lineup and there’s no guarantee he can still be an effective puck-mover in the top four. But still, he has the profile of someone who can hang. He showed as much in 2022-23 on a pair with MacKenzie Weegar, as the duo earned 58 percent of the expected goals and 61 percent of the actual goals over 453 minutes. That was better than anyone else Weegar played with that season — a list that features Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson and Chris Tanev.

To get the best out of them, good players need to play with other good players they can trust. Zadorov’s numbers, of course, aren’t going to be as strong with the Troy Stechers and Noah Juulsens of the world. Or with Ian Cole, for that matter.

Zadorov has potential, and while the model would hate a deal that starts with a five, he looks like someone who really could make the most of it. The playoffs provided inspiration for that with some of the best hockey of his life, in which he had a Net Rating of plus-1.7 over 13 games, the highest among all Canucks defensemen — a 10.7 pace over a full season.

He looked like a rockstar in scoring four goals and eight points in 13 games while earning 52 percent of the expected goals and outscoring opponents 8-5. That didn’t come from playing with Cole (49 percent expected goals and outscored 4-3) for 138 minutes. That came from the brief 46-minute window in which he shared the ice with one of Quinn Hughes or Filip Hronek. In that stretch, the goals were 3-1 for the Canucks with 70 percent of the expected goals.

It goes against every fiber of my being to be swayed by 13 playoff games or a 46-minute sample with top-pair defensemen, but with Zadorov, it goes beyond that given his sterling micro-stat profile. If he gets a real top-four chance with a real partner, I think he takes off and doesn’t look back.

Sean Walker was a revelation for the Philadelphia Flyers before he was traded. He went from salary-cap casualty to an indispensable piece on the back end — one worthy of a raise. He made $2.65 million on his last deal and deserves more during this free agency. With the Flyers, he was on the ice for 55 percent of the goals and expected goals, both among the team’s best and driven by offense. He’s elite at jumping into the play and leading the rush while also creating a lot of chances in zone. Walker may not get a lot of points, but he was a pivotal offensive piece. It’s no coincidence the Flyers started falling apart without him.

Walker isn’t a perfect player, though, and comes with some defensive warts. That makes him a bit of a gamble for a top-four role, especially come playoff time, when his lack of size may be a detriment. He wasn’t at his best in the postseason with Colorado, though he spent a lot of time next to Jack Johnson.

An interested team needs to think carefully about where Walker capably fits on the depth chart. If it’s in the top four, is he supported enough by a stout partner? If it’s on the third pair, is he worth the cost? Those aren’t easy questions to answer.

Alex Carrier

It wasn’t Roman Josi or Ryan McDonagh taking on the toughest matchups for Nashville last season. It was Alex Carrier and Jeremy Lauzon, and the pair performed admirably. And I’m not going to credit Lauzon for that.

Carrier earned 52 percent of the goals and expected goals with some of the best defensive numbers on the team to boot. It was a nice step forward for him, one bolstered by his work in both zones and in transition. He was an asset at creating chances as well as breaking out the puck. He looks like a really savvy top-four bet in a shutdown role for any team that strikes out on one of the many other options.

There is a sticking point, though: Carrier’s size. He doesn’t quite fit the general archetype of a defensive machine with a 5-foot-11, 174-pound frame. That makes him one of the league’s most undersized defenders and might explain why he struggled in the playoffs this season.

A defenseman doesn’t have to be hulking to be successful. Anton Stralman (5-foot-11, 193 pounds) was one of the best of his generation, Ryan Ellis (5-10, 180 pounds) was great, and Brian Campbell (5-10, 192 pounds) fits the profile, too. Carrier doesn’t come with the same track record as those guys, but his 2023-24 campaign was an eye-opener. At 27, he’s on the young end of free agents, too.

It’s not difficult to envision a world in which Shayne Gostisbehere earns $5 million or more per season after scoring 56 points last year. If a team needs a top power-play quarterback on a budget, he’s a good bet for the job.

The issue with Gostisbehere is, he can’t really be trusted to defend well at five-on-five. His on-ice results may have looked fine, but that’s a likely result of being one of the league’s most sheltered defensemen. Moritz Seider taking on the league’s toughest minutes left an easier job for Gostisbehere on the third pair. His numbers arguably should’ve been a lot better given his role. That he isn’t a strong puck-mover and didn’t create a lot of chances is probably why.

He’s this era’s Keith Yandle, a true power-play merchant. While teams are now wise enough not to pay $7 million for seven years for that, it’s still probably foolish to invest over $5 million. Gostsibehere is an admirable power-play specialist, but if he’s your guy, you probably have other problems.

One of the minor reasons the Rangers were so strong this year was they finally had an adequate third pair. The addition of Erik Gustafsson was the key there. Over the last two years, he’s established himself as the Cadillac of third-pair defensemen. He’s a decent puck-mover with great play-making abilities in zone who can quarterback a secondary power play and momentarily step into the top four if needed. Over the last two years, he’s had to fill in for both John Carlson and Adam Fox and did admirably well both times. He’s better than he’s given credit for.

I’m not sure he has done enough to be trusted in a top-four role full-time or earn $4 million with term, but he’s the kind of player who can be trusted to win his third-pair minutes. Compare him to Gostisbehere above who will surely be paid more this offseason and the choice should be easy.

Compared to a similarly used player, Gustafsson plays tougher minutes and earns stronger results. Relative to teammates, Gustafsson’s expected goals rate has been over 0.3 better per 60 in each of the last two seasons. His scoring rate at five-on-five and on the power play is comparable, too.

If a team has a need and fit for a third-pair luxury, Gustafsson should be the guy.

As is tradition with anyone Florida acquires, Oliver Ekman-Larsson had a nice bounce-back as a Panther. He was put in a role in which he can succeed, and that’s made all the difference. This year, he was on the ice for 54 percent of the expected goals and 55 percent of the goals, right around team average.

It was a strong enough season to think Ekman-Larsson might be able to handle a little more difficulty — just not too much. He fell apart in a matchup role in 2022-23, but on a second pair with an adequate puck-mover, he could be a good sweet spot for him. His volatility and age make him a risk for any contract with term, but he can be an OK fit as a No. 4/5.

This is a perfect example of the model’s fallibility. No, I would not give Jalen Chatfield $4 million. Even after adjusting for his high teammate quality and low opponent quality, Chatfield grades out as an average defenseman. Earning 60 percent of the goals and expected goals over the last 166 games will have that effect. Usage can’t explain all of that away.

Still, it’s difficult to be sure whether Chatfield can replicate that in a top-four role in a different system. That’s the worry with all of Carolina’s defenders, but especially Chatfield, who deferred a lot of puck responsibilities to partner Dmitry Orlov.

Maybe the on-ice results are right and he’s the next Gustav Forsling, who had a similar Net Rating in his first year with Florida to what Chatfield had last season. But Forsling wasn’t as sheltered and was also a much more active and efficient puck-mover from the get-go.

I like the idea of Chatfield proving he can do it somewhere else on a cheap deal, but I don’t think he’s worth risking more money or term on yet.

Ian Cole

Over the last two seasons, Ian Cole has greatly reduced scoring chances against in a role that was a bit more difficult than usual for a third pair. This year, he was on the ice for just 2.04 goals against per 60 and 2.19 expected goals against per 60. That’s the basis for his high Defensive Rating.

That continued in the playoffs, aside from several unfortunate bounces and decisions. That’s soured a lot of people on Cole’s game, though his on-ice results still point to a player who’s fine on the bottom pair.

Having said that, he did have a massive year-to-year drop in his puck-moving ability. Last year, he exited the zone with control just 30 percent of the time, down from 60 percent the year prior. At 35, that’s a red flag.

I’m sorry, the old TJ Brodie can’t come to the phone right now.

At the end of the 2022-23 season, Brodie was still regarded as one of the league’s top defensive defensemen. He ate tough minutes for the Toronto Maple Leafs and won them handily. He finished the season with a plus-6.3 Defensive Rating, a shade lower than his plus-7.6 in 2021-22. He was a solid No. 2 who put up consistently strong results.

Brodie’s strengths came from a strong ability to defend off the rush, retrieve pucks in his own zone and exit with control — all at high volume. In 2022-23, he defended 51 percent of entries, turned a retrieval into an exit 57 percent of the time and exited the zone with control 62 percent of the time. In 2023-24, those numbers dropped, respectively, to 41 percent, 47 percent and 43 percent. What were once big strengths were now significant weaknesses, to the point where he was a deserved scratch during the playoffs. He ended the season with a minus-1.1 Defensive Rating.

It’s possible that Brodie still has game in a lesser role and might benefit from playing on his strong side. It’s unlikely, though, that he can still be an above-average defender at 33. That would make any contract above $4 million a very risky bet.

The model is down on Dmitry Kulikov, relative to what he did with Florida this past season, but that’s just a symptom of the 2022-23 Anaheim Ducks ruining every player associated with them. He’s looked solid once again with Florida, another win for the Panthers scouting staff. That team knows how to get the most out of its acquisitions, and Kulikov was no exception.

Kulikov found a comfortable role on Florida’s third pair and, at age 33, that’s likely the most suitable usage for him going forward. That’s partly a result of his puck-moving ability taking a hit over the last two seasons. Kulikov still won his minutes with the Panthers and can be a fine add at $3 million — I just wouldn’t expect much more than that.

Here’s something you may not know about Tyler Myers: He was Vancouver’s most-used defender against Connor McDavid in Round 2. That shows the trust and respect he still earns from coaches and, to his credit, he had a strong series given that difficulty, with 49 percent of the expected goals and an even scoreline.

Myers also ate very tough minutes during the season, which puts his on-ice numbers in a fairly positive light. Earning 52 percent of the expected goals is really strong work, and all of that led to a great season for Myers with a plus-2.5 Net Rating. He was also at plus-4.3 in 2021-22.

It’s the middle season and his age that warrants pause. If a team is confident it can get the version of Myers we saw last season, a legitimate top-four option who can handle tough minutes, he is absolutely worth a deal of around $4 million — or more. At age 34, and just one year off from the horrors of the 2022-23 season, when he had a minus-9.4 Net Rating, it is a big risk, though.

Longtime readers will know the model has generally held a soft spot for Matt Grzelcyk, whose on-ice numbers have almost always been considerably strong. From 2019-23, the Boston Bruins scored 65 percent of the goals and earned 58 percent of the expected goals with Grzelcyk on the ice, well above team average. Even when accounting for teammates and usage, Grzelcyk still came out solid. His puck-moving ability was a big asset.

That changed over the last season, when Grzelcyk was only on the ice for 47 percent of the expected goals, well below team average. The entire drop could be attributed to allowing more chances against, an area of the game that Grzelcyk was normally strong in. His relative impact has now dropped in four straight seasons.

Maybe Grzelcyk can handle himself better in a lower role, but the other major issue goes beyond last year: his work in crunch time. Year after year, the undersized defender’s numbers have plummeted in the playoffs. From 2019-23, the Bruins still earned 57 percent of the expected goals, but his goal share drops to 36 percent.

Maybe that’s coincidence or regression to the mean after he scored more than expected during the season. But the fact that it’s a consistent issue every season, to the point that he’s often relegated to the press box, makes it a lot easier to believe he’s simply not built for it. He’s already likely too pricey for what he’s projected to bring in the regular season. For the playoffs? It’s a really tough ask.

Data via Evolving Hockey and All Three Zones

(Photo of Chris Tanev: Richard Rodriguez / Getty Images)