NFL Football Power Index gives Cowboys fourth-best chances to win the Super Bowl

So you’re saying there’s a chance? Despite the Dallas Cowboys’ disappointing end to their 2023 season and stagnated approach in free agency, the Cowboys are favored to compete for a title this season. ESPN’s Seth Walder has given the Cowboys the fourth-best chance to win the Super Bowl, according to the NFL Football Power Index (FPI).

Here is a clearer explanation of how FPI works:

The Football Power Index is our ratings and projection model for NFL teams. In the preseason, the model’s overall predictive ratings are based primarily on win totals from ESPN BET in conjunction with each team’s schedule — along with factors such as the strength difference between a team’s starting and backup quarterback and a revamped special teams rating based primarily on new predictive kicker ratings. We use these team ratings to simulate the season thousands of times, creating our projections.

During the season, ratings evolve based on how teams perform on offense, defense and special teams — along with quarterback performance and changes. In addition to updated ratings, game predictions are also affected by home-field advantage and rest differentials.

The 49ers are the favorites to win the Super Bowl followed by the Chiefs. The Cowboys slot in just behind the Lions for fourth place with a 9% likelihood.

49ers 16%
Chiefs 12%
Lions 10%
Cowboys 9%
Ravens 8%
Eagles 8%
Bills 6%
Bengals 5%
Packers 5%
Texans 4%

FPI also had the Cowboys tied for second-best odds in terms of making the NFC Conference championship game. The 49ers versus Lions is the most probable matchup at 9%. A Cowboys versus 49ers matchup ties with a 49ers versus Eagles game for second place at 8%. FPI also predicts the Cowboys playing the Detroit Lions (6%), Green Bay Packers (3%), and Philadelphia Eagles (3%) in the NFC Championship game.

The Cowboys and their fans would be ecstatic if any of these scenarios came to fruition. However, the Cowboys have disappointed for so long that talk, even if carefully calculated and measured, is cheap. The Cowboys have been expected to take that next step for over a quarter century, and FPI’s faith in the team is another iteration of the team’s potential to deliver in the postseason. As shown in Walder’s article, Dallas would likely have to get past the 49ers who have had their number as of late.

Also ranked above the Cowboys in the FPI rankings are the Baltimore Ravens, the Buffalo Bills, who soundly beat the Cowboys last season, and the defending champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys find themselves in lofty company regarding recent postseason success. Still, again, when looking at Walder’s post on X and seeing the teams ahead of the Cowboys in the rankings, you can’t help but cynically channel your inner Kendrick Lamar and sing to yourself, “They not like us,” when reminding yourself who the Cowboys have been once January football rolls around. Alas, there is a (good) chance.

FPI overall team rankings: