NBA free agency: James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and the top available point guards

Following my ranking of the top 25 overall players likely available in free agency, it’s time to break down the positions. We’ll start in the backcourt by looking at the point guard market.

In theory, that position has some elite talent. In reality, the best guys will likely return to their own teams, and the rest of the market is basically shorn of starting-caliber talent. Teams looking for backups will find a lot more opportunity, however, with several strong candidates seeking landing spots.

I’m breaking down all of the plausible free-agent point guards on the market this summer — key word being plausible. I didn’t include players like Chicago’s Lonzo Ball, who could theoretically opt out of his $21 million, or Indiana’s T.J. McConnell, who has a non-guaranteed deal for $9.3 million that the Indiana Pacers could waive if they lost all sanity.

With that said, here’s how my BORD$ formula rates the value of all the options at point guard this offseason.

Tier I: Max and near-max guys

1. Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia (restricted): $51,566,053

Why didn’t the Sixers sign their 23-year-old breakout All-Star to an extension last fall? Because his cap hold counts for a mere $13 million until he puts pen to paper on his next deal, thus allowing the Sixers to spend nearly $60 million cap room on free agents before Maxey inevitably signs his max contract as a restricted free agent (though Maxey technically could sign an offer sheet elsewhere and for less money, which the Sixers seem near certain to match).

That deal will pay him $205 million over five years, and the only real drama in his negotiation with the Sixers is whether it will include a fifth-year player option and a 15-percent trade kicker. It will start at $35.25 million in 2024-25 based on current cap guidance, and as you can see from the BORD$ value above, that will still be a bargain for Philly.

2. James Harden, LA Clippers: $48,522,327

This dollar amount probably strikes people as on the high side; Harden is still a very effective player, but he turns 35 in August, and his playing style is not for everybody. One of the key elements in any Harden contract is how many years to offer, especially since he’s shown signs of decline the past two years and isn’t exactly renowned for his conditioning.

On the other hand, this is a guy who scored 33 in a road playoff win over Dallas and had 61.6 percent true shooting for the series. The Clips lost to the Mavs and Harden struggled in the final two games, but it’s tough to blame that defeat on him. Finally, the Clippers are subject to the Bird rights trap and can’t replace him if he walks.

Given that Leonard is signed for three more years, I’d expect a Harden deal to line up with that and come in at a lower number than this BORD$ value — perhaps three years and $90 million to $100 million.

Tier II: More than midlevel exception, less than max

3. Immanuel Quickley, Toronto (restricted): $32,931,787

Advanced numbers tend to like Quickley more than his raw output, and he struggled at times when put into too heavy of a shot-creation role in Toronto. Additionally, his restricted status is likely to soften his free-agent market, as nobody will want to tie up their money while waiting for Toronto to inevitably match.

I expect his eventual contract value to come in lower than this number. The good news for the Raptors is that the 25-year-old Quickley’s next deal should cover the prime years of his career. A four-year pact worth between $100 million and $120 million strikes me as a likely sweet spot. 

4. D’Angelo Russell, Lakers (player option): $28,897,673

While most would consider this on the high side for Russell, consider that he’s still only 28, has had eight straight seasons with a PER above the league average and was especially good in the second half of last season. Offsetting that is his rough playoff history and shortcomings as a defender.

Nonetheless, Russell has a player option for $18.7 million and seems to be in good position to exceed that if he opts out. Perhaps more importantly, Russell can control his destination for next season, given that his opting in would likely lead to his being an expiring contract included as matching salary in a trade package for a more prominent player.

5. Chris Paul, Golden State (non-guaranteed): $21,752,030

Paul has a $30 million non-guaranteed deal for 2024-25 with Golden State; the Warriors have until June 28 to waive him if they don’t include his contract in a trade first and are widely expected to do so as they try to rein in an extravagant payroll.

As a free agent, this is likely a generous valuation for the 39-year-old Paul, whose level of play dropped off noticeably at both ends of the court last season. In the right situation, however, his IQ and shooting can make him a very valuable third guard.

6. Spencer Dinwiddie, L.A. Lakers: $18,851,993

Dinwiddie is a risky player to me, and I was surprised by this valuation. His offense and shot-creation both fell off sharply this season, across two different teams, and you’re not really employing a 33.3-percent career 3-point shooter as a floor spacer.

While his plus size for a point guard gives him some cross-positional functionality, and he generally held up well on defense last season, I’d be worried that the 31-year-old has lost a step and adjust my offer accordingly. I’m not sure BORD$ has caught up to that yet, as it still weighs his stronger 2022-23 season in putting together this estimate.

Tier III: Midlevel exception guys

7. Tyus Jones, Washington: $14,202,391

Jones is one of the summer’s most interesting free-agent conundrums, because he’s one of the 30 best point guards in basketball but probably not one of the 18 to 20 best. In other words, he’s technically a starting-caliber player but just barely, and if he’s starting for your team, you’re looking to upgrade. That puts him in an odd position, where he wants to be a starter and be paid like a starter, but I’m not sure any team is so stoked about signing him for that role that they’ll pay for it.

You can see the logic in Washington’s decision not to move him at the trade deadline if they didn’t like what was offered (which, I’m told, they didn’t). The Wizards should end up in a strong position to re-sign him at just above the MLE amount.

8. Dennis Smith Jr., Brooklyn: $13,153,326

One consistent fact about BORD$ is that it rates good defensive players much more highly than the free-agent market historically has. Smith is another example, as an All-Defense-caliber guard who struggles to hit shots from the perimeter. I doubt he gets anywhere near this amount, but he’ll be good value as a disruptive defensive presence off the bench for whichever team lands him.

9. Jose Alvarado, New Orleans (team option): $12,128,673

Alvarado is signed for next season at just $1.95 million, but the possibility exists that the Pelicans could go back to their Herb Jones playbook from last summer by declining the option and re-signing Alvarado now to a longer deal for less annual money than he’d get as a free agent in 2025.

The logic on such a deal is slightly less compelling this time around than it was for Jones. New Orleans is already close to the tax line and badly needs to add a center in the offseason, and Alvarado’s position is pretty crowded. I also don’t expect his market next summer to run that hot given Alvarado’s size and recent injury issues.

Finally, the Pels have cap-room scenarios for 2025 if they don’t extend Brandon Ingram, so Alvarado’s miniscule cap hold that summer might be more beneficial than inking him to a new number right now. Still, keep an eye on this; a four-year, $32 million deal or so could be a happy medium for both sides.

10. Russell Westbrook, LA Clippers (player option): $11,869,839

Westbrook’s game doesn’t fit everywhere, and he is an L.A. native who presumably would prefer to stay close to home. He also has made enough money already that the marginal value of a slight raise might not be the highest priority. His player option, however, is only for $4 million, and BORD$ values him much more highly. I’d be very interested to see how the free-agent market would treat him if he opts out.

11. Kyle Lowry, Philadelphia: $11,067,500

Lowry is 38, and his play tailed off last season, but my numbers still see him as a valuable player, if no longer a starter. Philadelphia likely would prefer to bring him back and has ample cap room to do it (the Sixers have no Bird rights on Lowry and are limited to a 20 percent raise on his minimum if they sign him without cap room or the room exception). However, the Sixers will have to weigh that against the opportunities to take home run swings with their max cap space. Lowry could also be a popular target for other contenders, but will any want to dig deep enough to offer their full MLE on a one-year deal?

TIER IV: More than minimum

12. Monte Morris, Minnesota: $9,515,571

Morris hardly played after he was acquired by Minnesota and was injured for most of his time in Detroit. He’s also a small guard who turns 29 in a few days. On the other hand, he’s a good set shooter who can run an offense and profiles as a solid backup on a two-year deal.

His former comrades in Denver would seem to have a need for him, but the Nuggets might only have minimum contracts or, at best, the projected taxpayer midlevel exception of $5.2 million. As a result, Morris’ best landing spot might be elsewhere for a bigger chunk of the MLE.

Minnesota, incidentally, would seem an unlikely landing spot for a return unless he’s willing to take a pay cut, as the Wolves have serious luxury tax issues going forward and struggled to incorporate Morris last season.

13. Markelle Fultz, Orlando: $9,362,491

Fultz’s woeful outside shooting made him an especially bad fit on an Orlando team that already suffered from poor spacing, but on the right team, he can make an impact with his defense, post-ups and open-floor game. It seems highly unlikely he’s back with the Magic, who used a lottery pick on a point guard last season and might sign another this summer. With the room exception for the coming season set at $8 million, he could be a guy several cap-room teams look at after first making a splash with their cap space.

14. Jordan Goodwin, Memphis (restricted two-way) $7,595,385

Surprise! Goodwin is by far my top-rated free agent coming off a two-way, and is a restricted free agent who is eligible to return on another two-way. The biggest reason he rates so highly is his awesome rebounding numbers for a guard; Goodwin’s 14.8 percent rebound rate was better than that of Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porziņģis, Al Horford, Myles Turner, Jayson Tatum, Pascal Siakam, Julius Randle, Luka Dončić and Lauri Markkanen, among others. It was the best of any perimeter player; not even Josh Hart could catch him.

Goodwin also had a nearly 3-to-1 assist-turnover ratio and averaged 2.5 steals per 100 possessions. The reason he doesn’t rate even higher comes down to shooting; he’s a 30.8 percent career marksman from 3 and shot a ghastly 41.1 percent on 2s last season. Still, I’d like to see him get a chance to play real rotation minutes someplace.

15. Delon Wright, Miami: $7,300,210

Wright is 32 and shot very poorly inside the arc last season (just 40.8 percent), so teams will probably think twice before offering him long-term money. However, he’s big enough to play both guard spots, can make an open 3 (35.4 percent career) and has always protected the ball well. He’ll be a reasonable option for teams with the room exception or taxpayer MLE. Note that Miami’s tax situation makes it seem unlikely he’d return unless he took a minimum deal.

16. Aaron Holiday, Houston: $5,501,152

Holiday quietly had a solid season off the bench in Houston, playing his usual rugged defense while cutting the turnovers and bad decisions that stifled him in previous stops. At age 27 and with legit shooting chops (38 percent career), he’s a nice stealth target for teams looking to improve their backcourt depth.

17. Kris Dunn, Utah: $5,478,603

Dunn has revived his career in Utah and would seem a decent bet to return given Utah’s lack of cap constraints. That’s especially true given his miniscule $2.1 million cap hold that shouldn’t interfere with Utah’s ability to use cap room to renegotiate-and-extend Markkanen’s deal should the Jazz choose to do so.

18. Cameron Payne, Philadelphia: $4,878,599

Payne was on the outs in Milwaukee but used his late-season tenure in Philly to remind teams of his positives as an offensive weapon off the bench. The Sixers’ entire roster is in flux, and it seems more likely Payne will end up someplace else; he’d be a good fit for teams limited to the taxpayer MLE and hunting backcourt help.

Could Cameron Payne help a team looking for offense off the bench? (Bill Streicher / USA Today)

19. Jordan McLaughlin, Minnesota: $4,504,118

If the Wolves can’t afford to bring back Morris (above), a reasonable alternative would be to bring back the steady McLaughlin on a slight raise from his minimum deal. For a team that likely will be over the second apron next season and thus won’t be able to sign any outside players for more than the minimum, he presents the best compromise between affordability and basketball value.

20. Devonte’ Graham, San Antonio (non-guaranteed): $3,258,340

Graham has a partial guarantee of $2.85 million on his $12.65 million deal for the upcoming season. He could help the right team but has hardly played for the Spurs, only seeing action in 23 games last season. Yet he might very well return, because San Antonio is in a rare position of likely needing his matching salary in a trade much more than it would benefit from the additional cap space attained by waiving him.

TIER V: Minimums

21. Reggie Jackson, Denver (player option)

The odds of Jackson declining his player option for $5.2 million seem slim. However, there is the faintest possibility the Nuggets tempt him to do so in order to re-sign him at a lower number for more years to reduce their luxury tax hit.

22. Patrick Beverley, Milwaukee

Beverley turns 36 this offseason and ended his last campaign on an extremely sour note, pelting Pacers fans with a basketball from short range as the Bucks were being eliminated by Indiana. As a result, he’ll be suspended the first four games of next season.

He toned down the overzealous fouling last season, but his limited role capability on offense (basically requiring another ballhandler even though Beverley is nominally a point guard) and declining ferocity on defense make him an iffy proposition for a top-nine rotation role at this point.

23. Malachi Flynn, Detroit

He had a 50 burger! I’m not sure there’s a lot else to see here; Flynn needs to shoot better than his career mark of 33.4 percent from 3 to stick as a rotation player, but he could be an option as a fifth guard at the end of a roster.

Tier VI: Signed but vulnerable

24. Jared Butler, Washington (non-guaranteed)

Butler has shot worse in the NBA than his college numbers would suggest, but he played 40 relatively solid games for the Wizards last year, and it seems unlikely they would need to waive him to get under the tax line. Washington likely can postpone a decision until training camp.

25. Jeff Dowtin, Philadelphia (team option)

Dowtin’s team option is also non-guaranteed, which means the Sixers could pick up the option but cut him later if they need the cap space. The scenario that seems more plausible is that the Sixers decline the option to get an extra little bit of cap space but quickly agree to bring him back on a one-year minimum deal to fill out the bench.

26. Javon Freeman-Liberty, Toronto (non-guaranteed)

Freeman-Liberty has a $100,000 guarantee for this year, which provides a tiny little drip of job security, but his biggest friend is Bruce Brown’s team option. If the Raptors pick that up, it means they won’t be a cap space team and won’t need to waive Freeman-Liberty to generate a bit of extra room. If so, July 23 is the next hurdle, when Toronto would owe him an additional $150,000.

Tier VII: Everyone else

27. Trent Forrest, Atlanta

The Hawks signed Forrest after using up all his two-way days, partly because they concluded he was better than Patty Mills (below). He seems to be a fav with the coaches because of his defense, but his 42.5 true shooting percentage across two seasons as a Hawk underscore his limitations.

28. Patty Mills, Miami

Mills is 35 and comes off a fairly abysmal season that ended with a 7.2 PER on 46.7 percent shooting; in both Atlanta and Miami, he was given chances to crack the rotation and found wanting. It’s possible his shooting and pedigree leaves the door open for one more chance.

Patty Mills drives around Cavaliers forward Evan Mobley and the Cleveland defense during a game in March. (Jim Rassol / USA Today)

29. Amari Bailey, Charlotte (restricted two-way)

The 41st pick in the 2023 draft played on a two-way last year in Charlotte. He only appeared in 10 games for the Hornets, but in 23 contests with Greensboro, he was a reasonably good G League player, and he’s only 20 years old. Charlotte is under new management, so it will be interesting to see where he lands.

30. Kira Lewis, Utah

A lottery pick in 2020, Lewis finished last season with an 8.6 PER on 44.1 percent true shooting in 28 games split across three teams. He’s only 23, but his next stop might be on a distant shore.

31. Jacob Gilyard, Brooklyn (restricted two-way)

Gilyard started 14 games in Memphis last season before running out of two-way days and being released; Brooklyn scooped him up at year’s end, and he’ll be a restricted two-way with the Nets. Gilyard is only 5-foot-8 but blocked five shots in his 699 minutes; he’s a good 3-point shooter and defensive pest whose inability to score in the paint is a detriment.

32. Saben Lee, Phoenix (two-way)

Lee just completed his fourth NBA campaign and thus has graduated from the two-way system; he can only sign a roster contract now. Lee is capable of playing with incredible force, but his shooting and decision-making have never quite caught up. He’ll turn 25 before the draft, so now would be a good time to tighten things up.

33. Isaiah Thomas, Phoenix

Thomas played six games with the Suns at the end of last season. At 35, it’s likely over, though it seems he’ll give it another go.

(Top photo of Tyrese Maxey and James Harden: Tim Nwachukwu / Getty Images)