NBA Finals Expert Picks Tonight: Celtics vs. Mavericks Game 5 | Odds Shark

Friday’s result in Game 4 certainly came out of left field, not because Dallas managed to extend the series being down 3-0 to Boston, but because of how the Western Conference champions went about handling their business. The Mavericks won by a staggering 38 points, which was the third-largest margin of victory in a Finals game ever behind the 1998 Chicago Bulls (vs. Utah Jazz, 96-54) and the 2008 Celtics (vs. Los Angeles Lakers, 131-92). 

Prior to Friday’s outcome, the biggest win by a team in a Game 4 trailing 3-0 in a series was 21 points, so was the Mavericks’ showcase a sign of things to come or were they simply delaying the inevitable?

Since 2003, teams down 3-1 in the Finals heading on the road for a Game 5 are just 4-4 covering the spread, although all four of those covers have come in the last five instances, including last year’s Finals matchup between the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets when Miami lost SU by five points to cover as eight-point underdogs.

We still don’t know the status of Kristaps Porzingis moving forward in this series, as his presence would undoubtedly make a world of difference as Boston seeks to close things out on its home floor. The Celtics haven’t dropped four in a row all year, so the odds of the Mavericks making history to hoist Larry O’Brien are extremely slim, but that doesn’t mean they can’t keep things interesting on Monday with a competitive effort and nothing more to lose.

We’re not going to ruin a good thing by diverting from the script that is every single game of this series hitting the UNDER. Dallas failed to register at least 100 points through the first three games against the Celtics, while Boston still hasn’t scored more than 107 points either. 

This series, paired with Game 4 versus the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals, is by far the longest stretch all season of the Celtics consecutively hitting UNDERs. Surprisingly, Dallas has actually outscored Boston by six points overall, with the 2013 Heat the last team to win the championship with a negative point differential.