Met Mile fair odds: Taking a stand with National Treasure

White Abarrio stamped himself a horse of the year contender after winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but he lost that Eclipse Award to Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner Cody’s Wash.

The horse Cody’s Wish beat that day at Santa Anita Park, National Treasure, came back to win the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup before finishing fourth in the Saudi Cup (G1). White Abarrio did not race again until the Saudi Cup, where he finished a disappointing 10th of 14.

So, resume-wise, I see them as pretty close in Saturday’s Metropolitan Handicap (G1). But the intangible of National Treasure drawing inside with a little more early zip anyway has me favoring him. And with both horses figuring to take money, there’s just no reason to use both when I have two reasons I prefer National Treasure,  post and pace.

Post Time has some buzz to him, and his numbers match the top two OK, but his running style does not match the profile of one mile out of the Wilson chute at Saratoga Race Course. As you can see from the Horse Racing Nation Track Trends Tool, things conspire nicely for National Treasure but against Post Time.