Met Mile 2024: Odds and analysis for field of 6

Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Metropolitan drew a field of six older dirt males. In 2024 the Belmont Stakes racing festival will be run at Saratoga as Belmont Park is being renovated. The one-mile handicap will start from the Wilson chute. In addition to purse money, the winner gets an entry in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile in November at Del Mar.

The last two winners of the Met Mile became champions. Last year Cody’s Wish defeated Zandon and White Abarrio on his way to the championship of the older dirt male division. In 2022, Flightline won by six lengths as part of his undefeated career and was named horse of the year.

Here is a full-field analysis for the Met Mile with the official track morning-line odds. Scheduled as race 10 of 14, post time is set for 4:52 p.m. EDT.

1. Castle Chaos, 20-1. Place Malice – Robert Falcone Jr. / Dylan Davis – 16: 3-5-4 – $370,160. Castle Chaos was last seen finishing second in the Carter (G2) by a neck in April. Off since then, trainer Robert Falcone moved the training of Castle Chaos to Saratoga. The son of Palace Malice also was a close second in the Fred Hooper at Gulfstream Park. As a 6-year-old, Castle Chaos is not a stakes winner. Toss.

2. National Treasure, 8-5. Quality Road – Bob Baffert / Flavien Prat – 12: 3-2-2 – $4,822,000. National Treasure was not able to get to the lead in the Saudi Cup (G1) and could do no better than fourth. That came after he won the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and was second behind Cody’s Wish in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1). He earned the two best speed figures of his career in those American Grade 1 races. Now he must bounce back from the trip to the middle east. His work tab points to a Bob Baffert runner who is ready to show his best with a fast six-furlong effort followed by shorter final breeze. The son of Quality Road should like the Wilson chute as a race that goes around one and a half turns. Top choice.

3. Post Time, 7-2. Frosted – Brittany Russell / Sheldon Russell – 10: 8-1-1 – $617,910. A look at the career record of the Maryland-bred shows a 4-year-old who never finished worse than third in his career and won eight times. His best victories were earlier this year in the General George (G3) at Laurel Park and then the Carter at Aqueduct. Post Time returned to a mile and ran second in the Westchester (G3) at the Big A. This will be his first Grade 1. Toss.

4. Blazing Sevens, 8-1. Good Magic – Chad Brown / Manny Franco – 9: 3-1-3 – $957,650. Blazing Sevens ran two of the best races in his career in his only two starts at the mile distance in an allowance at Aqueduct in his first start of the year after a nine-month layoff. He also won the Champagne (G1) in 2022. He was beaten by only a head in the 2023 Preakness behind National Treasure. Manny Franco rode Blazing Sevens three times, and the horse won two of his three career victories including in April allowance. The one-turn mile is probably his best distance. Live long shot.

5. Hoist the Gold, 15-1. Mineshaft – Dallas Stewart / John Velazquez – 29: 5-6-3 – $1,291,297. Hoist the Gold also ran in the Saudi Cup and finished 14th. He returned last month to finish fifth in the Churchill Downs (G1) going seven furlongs. In December, Hoist the Gold won the Cigar Mile (G2) with a front-end effort that earned the second best speed figure in this field. He was eighth in the Met Mile last year, and this year’s field also will be formidable. Toss.

6. White Abarrio, 6-5. Race Day – Richard Dutrow Jr. / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 16: 7-1-3 – $5,146,350. White Abarrio established himself as one of the top older male dirt horses at the end of 2023 with his victories in the Whitney (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic. In the Whitney he earned a speed figure that tops this field. He was assigned the highweight of 126 pounds, which is what he carried in his Classic victory in November. He was third in last year’s Met Mile. Dutrow won the Met Mile previously in 2006 with Silver Train. Win contender.

Summary: The two favorites in the Met Mile are trying to come back from disappointing performances in the $20 million Saudi Cup in February. White Abarrio earned $200,000 for his 10th-place finish in the nine-furlong race after winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic. National Treasure was fourth in the rich race in Saudi, got $1.5 million and previously won the Pegasus World Cup.

Both White Abarrio and National Treasure had outstanding performances in their prior American starts against top horses in the most prestigious Grade 1 races. National Treasure will be the top choice, mostly because he will have slightly better odds.