Meet the top contenders in wide-open 13-horse Bashford Manor

The six-furlong, $225,000 Bashford
Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs attracted a competitive full field of 13 colts and geldings. While three will exit
with black-type status, only one can remain undefeated or earn their first
victory should a maiden win.

Typical of early-season juvenile stakes races, distance-challenged
sprinters are prevalent in the six-furlong event, and they may not be around
for a shot at the 2025 Kentucky
Derby, but you never know.

Though it was downgraded from Grade 3 status in 2022 and has
lost some of its luster, the Bashford Manor has produced some notable winners
since its inception in 1902.

Recent winners include 1990 Preakness winner Summer Squall (1989); Breeders’ Cup Juvenile heroes Boston Harbor (1996), Favorite
Trick (1997) and Classic Empire (2016) and current stakes record holder Kodiak Kowboy
(2007).

This year’s event includes offspring of three first crop
sires: 2-year-old champion Game Winner, Travers (G1) hero Tiz the Law and
Louisiana sire Bobby’s Wicked One.

The Bashford Manor is carded as the ninth race of 11 on Sunday’s
card, with a 4:55 p.m. EDT post time.

The tools used to handicap 2-year-old dirt sprint stakes
include their pedigree, class, mental ability (is the entrant focused, switches
leads, targets, and passes horses), speed ratings and competition quality,
post-race breezes, and trainer stats. Mental ability includes determining whether the horse is focused, can switch leads, and can target and pass horses.

Let’s look at the top contenders.

1. Spiralizer (Twirling
Candy – Jotown, by Speightstown) (Gaffalione, Asmussen) (5-1)

Spiralizer broke from the rail and moved towards the rail when
coming out of the gate. He bravely squeezed through a narrow opening to grab
the lead. He wasn’t challenged at any point and was professional down the lane.
He completed 5 furlongs in 58.48 seconds with a 12.46-second final quarter, winning by a comfortable
2 lengths and beating Mo Hair Sam by 2 1/2 lengths.

Spiralizer earned a 76 Brisnet speed rating and returned
last week with a five-furlong move in 1:02.2.

According to Race Lens, Steve Asmussen wins with 28 percent of his
2-year-old last-out maiden winners.

Pedigree Notes: Sold for $550,000 at the OBS March
2-year-old sale after getting a furlong in 10 seconds flat, Spiralizer has a precocious
classy sprinter-miler pedigree. Twirling Candy is an above-average sire of
juveniles. 

Spiralizer is the first foal out of a daughter of multiple
graded winning Jojo Warrior. That one is a half to Frizette (G1) heroine A Z
Warrior, plus stakes winners E Z Warrior and J Z Warrior. As a note for
pedigree geeks, Spiralizer is inbred to the superior mare Toussaund 4×5 through
the half-brothers Chester House (Twirling Candy’s damsire) and Empire Maker
(sire of Pioneerof the Nile, who is Jotown’s damsire).

10. Heat (Munnings –
Too Cool to Dance, by Kitten’s Joy) (Irad Ortiz Jr., Mark Casse) (4-1)

Exiting the far outside post in a 7-horse field, Heat was a
touch slow and broke outward in his debut over Gulfstream’s Tapeta course. He settled
off the pacesetter’s flank, and the pair opened up. Heat won the argument down
the lane and pulled clear by a length. Heat was professional, switching leads,
not bumping his rival, and he had no excess leg movement such as high leg
action or paddling.

Heat traveled five furlongs in 57.55 seconds, with a sharp 12.23-second final
furlong, and earned a 91 Brisnet speed rating. His 89 late pace figure is the second
highest in the field.  

Heat’s post-race work was comparable to his pre-race four furlongs
in 49.8 seconds. His final work for the Bashford Manor was five furlongs in 1:00.20 over
Churchill’s main track.

Mark Casse wins with 14 percent of his last out maiden 2-year-old winners.

Pedigree Notes: Heat should handle dirt and may eventually
appreciate two turns on the lawn.

Munnings is an above-average juvenile sire. Heat is the
first foal out of his dam, who won and placed from a mile to 1 1/4 miles on turf.
Too Cool to Dance’s full sister Sharp Kitty is a restricted stakes-winning turf miler, and her Hard Spun half-sister Nomorerichblondes
won the UAE Oaks (G3).

5. Bodacious (Smokem
– My Love Magnet, by Bodemeister) (Rosario, Periban) (9-2)

Bodacious was quarter-horsed to the lead in his debut,
zipping his first quarter in 21.99 seconds and getting a half in 45.95 seconds. He won for fun
under a hand ride, flashing under the wire in 52.01 seconds for the 4 1/2 furlongs. 

Bodacious beat a next-out winner and runner-up and recorded
a 102 Brisnet speed rating. He’s logged a trio of recent solo works, including
a pre-race five furlongs in 59.8 seconds.

Jorge Periban scores with 29 percent of last-out 2-year-old maiden
winners in their next start. Last year, he shipped Tom’s Regret to Churchill to
capture the Kentucky Juvenile Stakes in his second start.

Pedigree Notes: Bodacious has a sprinter’s pedigree.
He is the only winner in his immediate family. His second dam Alec’s Moon won the Portland
Meadows Oaks, and his third dam Bello Cielo was second in the Hollywood Oaks (G1). 

7. Enduring
Spirit (Tiz the Law – Life Starts, by Into Mischief) (Rey Gutierrez,
Rafael Ramos) (10-1) 

After flashing brief speed in his 4 1/2-furlong debut at
Keeneland, Enduring Spirit returned at Churchill in a five-furlong contest. He was
sharp out of the gate, immediately opening up by two lengths. Conquering Cat
made a couple of runs at him but never got closer than a half-length. Enduring
Spirit was professional down the lane, winning by a length, and stopped the clock
in 57.98 seconds with a 12.53-second final furlong. He earned an 88 Brisnet speed rating.

Enduring Spirit returned to the work tab with a 48.0-second four-furlong
breeze, quicker than his pre-race move. He then posted a bullet five furlongs in
1:01.6. He will take the blinkers off for the Bashford Manor.

Besides Conquering Cat, who returned to win, Enduring Spirit
bested two other rivals that hit the board in their next start.  

Pedigree Notes: Enduring Spirit should handle routes
and could be proficient on the lawn.

Tiz the Law, currently the fifth-ranked first-crop sire, was the 2020 Travers hero.
Enduring Spirit is his first winner from seven starters, although four have placed. Expect
them to shine at longer sprints and around two turns.

The distaff class in Enduring Spirit pedigree skips to the
third generation and includes multiple graded-stakes winning turf miler Doubles
Partner and international Group 1 winners Zabeel Prince and Rizeea.

2. Ivan the Great
(Kantharos – I’m Mom’s Favorite, by Indian Charlie) (Antonio Fresu, Doug O’Neill)
(6-1)

Ivan the Great was quick out of the gate but outrun through
a hot 21.86-second first quarter. He blew the turn, going seven-wide, and was green down
the lane, unable to keep a straight path and switching leads. Despite this, he
closed quickly to lose by a nose. Ivan the Great runs with his head up.

Doug O’Neill outfits Ivan the Great with a set of blinkers,
and he breezed in company with Debutante candidate So There She Was in a
pre-race four-furlong gate work in 47.6 seconds at Santa Anita. The pair broke together but
the filly outworked him by a half-length.

18 percent of Doug O’Neill’s 2-year-old maidens who finished in the
money in their last start graduate in their next outing.

Pedigree Notes: Ivan the Great has a sprinter-miler
pedigree. Kantharos is noted for getting sprinter-miler types.

His dam I’m Mom’s Favorite won the 6-furlong Miss Preakness Stakes,
and her daughter bore Grade 3-winning sprinter Frost Free. Ivan the Great’s
third dam is multiple Grade 1 heroine Tout Charmant, who earned over $1 million
in 29 starts.

3. Vinegar Hill
(Frosted – Coronado Rose, by Coronado’s Quest) 
(Adam Beschizza, John Ennis) (12-1)

Vinegar Hill broke on top in his second start and was never
seriously threatened in a 4 1/2-furlong sprint at Churchill. He was professional,
staying in his lane and switching leads, but runs with his head up. He
completed 4 1/2 furlongs in 51.82 seconds, 1.7 seconds off the track record set in 2008,
and earned an 86 Brisnet speed rating.

John Ennis gave
Vinegar Hill a three-furlong breeze for the Bashford Manor. The trainer is winless in five recent starts
with last out maiden 2-year-old winners.

Pedigree Notes: Vinegar Hill should handle 1 1/16 miles.

Frosted is an above-average sire of juveniles. He was second
in the 2015 Belmont Stakes and was a multiple-graded winner at 1 1/8 miles.
Vinegar Hill’s damsire is 1998 Travers hero Coronado’s Quest. Vinegar Hill’s
dam Coronado Rose is a stakes-winning sprinter, and his half-sister Flower Mart is a
stakes-placed turf miler.

9. War Tax (Outwork
– Transaction Tax, by Gemologist) (Jose Gomez, Carlos Martin) (8-1)

War Tax was hustled to the lead in his Aqueduct debut but
relaxed after opening up by two lengths. He was hand-ridden the entire way, athletically
cut the corner, and was professional down the lane, although he had high knee
action.

War Tax completed five furlongs in 58.37 seconds, with a sharp 12.13-second
final furlong. He earned an 80 Brisnet speed rating. Two rivals have since returned, but neither
hit the board in their next outing.

Carlos Martin is winless in three recent starts with last-out maiden 2-year-old
winners making their second start.

Pedigree Notes: War Tax should handle a mile to 1
1/16 miles.

Outwork is an average 2-year-old sire. War Tax is a second
foal, and his half-brother Victory Money is a winner. There are no stakes winners in the
first three generations of his distaff line.

6. Politicallycorrect
(Violence – Heron Watch, by Candy Ride (ARG)) (Jose Ortiz, Chris Davis) (8-1)

In his debut at Churchill, Politicallycorrect broke outward
from post 7 and vied four-wide for the lead, which he grabbed without much urging.
He settled into a good rhythm and was professional down the lane, turning back
a challenge by the runner-up and winning by 1 1/4 lengths.

Politicallycorrect was timed in 1:04.78 for 5 1/2 furlongs and
earned a 77 Brisnet speed rating. Only one rival hit the board in their next outing. Politicallycorrect
posted a pair of four-furlong works at Turfway for the Bashford Manor, one in 48.0 seconds and the next in 48.4 seconds.

Trainer Chris Davis has a winner and a runner-up from seven last out
maiden 2-year-old winners.

Pedigree Notes: Politicallycorrect should handle two
turns.

Violence is an above-average sire of juveniles. 

Although his second dam is a Grade 3 winner in Japan, the
bright spot in Politicallycorrect’s distaff line is his third dam Lite Light, winner of Grade 1 races including the Kentucky Oaks, Coaching Club American Oaks, Santa Anita Oaks and Las
Virgenes.

Conquering Cat,
Happyflyer, Moneyline, Mo Hair Sam, and
Smoken Wicked
haven’t shown the speed to compete with the rest of these.

Analysis

11 of the last 12 Bashford Manor heroes won their previous
start. Three shipped from Belmont, Monmouth or Santa Anita to win. Pace
pressers and setters were most successful, although two won from three lengths or
farther back.

Favorites won 8 times and were second twice. Steve Asmussen’s
charges won four of the last 12 editions and is the only repeat winner.

In a full field of 2-year-olds, anything can happen and
always does.

1. Spiralizer turns around in 17 days but won his
debut comfortably without being fully extended.

5. Bodacious could regress from his 102 Brisnet speed rating.
He’s stepping out of state-bred company, facing winners at a longer distance
and shipping, although his trainer has successfully shipped to Churchill.

10. Heat tries dirt for the first time but had a
decent work at Churchill. The downside is that according to Race Lens, Mark Casse and Irad
Ortiz, Jr. are winless in four starts together over the last 90 days.

7. Enduring Spirit posted a post-race work faster
than his pre-race breeze. Horses that bounce out of their races with quicker
works show signs of progression in their next start. Florida-based trainer Rafael
Ramos won with one other last-out maiden from five starters.

Selections

1. Spiralizer (5-1)

10. Heat (4-1)

5. Bodacious (9-2)

7. Enduring Spirit (10-1)